For now, it is relatively easy to forecast Donald Trump’s tyrannical movements. There are no advanced Frank Underwood style chess games up for grabs here. It is hardly Candyland, despite the fascist objectives involved. Trump is, above all else, a simple mind, easily predictable Golgothan who telegraphs every movement of self-preservation. Sometimes it can be reassuring to have an idea of where you are going with your repetitive comments. At other times it leaves us with this perpetual sense of instability, knowing what might be lurking around the corner. The November elections fall horribly into the last category.
I think I know how Trump will try to interfere with the process and the outcome, and it’s more than a little puzzling, especially considering the catastrophic risks this time around. Warning: This is a horror show, so hold on tight. Oh, and everything that follows assumes a close race, with the lead advantage from Joe Biden.
We are all brutally aware that every move Trump makes is directly aimed at reelection. If he is not re-elected, he could face criminal prosecution and dozens of lawsuits after he becomes a private citizen again. He knows better than anyone that the presidency is the only thing that saves him, either from the coup or from an underground escape to a country without extradition.
As part of his choppy maneuvers to evade legal risk, we also know that he is willing to sentence hundreds of thousands of Americans to death, and millions more on top of that for suffering permanent pre-existing conditions, due to his near-genocidal. indifference to the pandemic: indifference designed to manipulate the stock market and, therefore, increase your chances of re-election. It is a matter of historical record that Congress charged and tried him for trying to cheat in the election, while refusing to deter Russia from cyber-attacking the process again.
You understand. He is capable of doing anything to win, even risking his legal future. But none of the above tactics directly addresses how you could handle the actual process of suppressing and revoking votes.
Like a petulant boy who throws a board game across the room when he loses, Trump will throw the electoral process into complete chaos. Here’s how: You will continue to suppress voting by discouraging absentee voting, while benefiting from new and existing obstacles to in-person voting. Then, on and after Election Day, you will sue to try to prevent absentee ballots from being counted.
You may have seen he unintentionally hilarious video of Trump on “Fox News Sunday” this past weekend. During his sweaty exchange of lies with Chris Wallace, the President once again repeated, “I think voting by mail is going to manipulate the election.” He also said he may not accept the result of the elections. “I have to see,” Trump said when pressed on the question. Absentee voting, also known as voting by mail, will be your primary goal in your plan to derail the election. (Point of Order: All mail-in ballots are absent, including the president’s ballots. Therefore, I will use the term “absent” from now on.)
Election Day will not be a “day” at all this year. In fact, some estimates suggest We won’t know the winner of the presidential election, let alone disputes in the Senate and House elections, for a week or more after November 3, primarily due to the record number of absentee ballots used during pandemic conditions. It will take days to electronically tabulate all of those votes, and perhaps weeks for handwritten ballots in some precincts. I’m not even considering the possibility of recanvasing or actual counts.
Up to this point, 33 states and the District of Columbia allow some form of voting by mail without an excuse for the absence. (Oregon has held all elections by mail since 1998, without significant problems. The states of Colorado and Washington have adopted the universal vote by mail more recently.) Incidentally, states that vote absentee include Florida, where Trump will vote by mail this year, again, with no necessary excuse. The other 17 states require an excuse, but at least some of them are likely to change the rules before November, eliminating the need for an excuse.
The main focus of Trump’s screeches on absentee voting, of course, is to establish a framework of hearts and minds to support the legal challenges against those ballots. To that end, he is routinely exploiting the stalker’s pulpit to cast doubt on the reliability of absentee voting. From there, he is able to initiate a series of lawsuits against the electoral elections, perhaps in all the states where ballots are used in absentia, or only in states with margins too close to call. As you continue to criticize your loyalists about the ills of absentee voting from now until Election Day, you will be increasingly likely to endorse him during the actual process, organizing demonstrations and perhaps some not very different “Brooks Brothers riots” of the elections. 2000.
Each and every decisive state will be ready to face legal challenges, not because of real elections or electoral fraud, but simply because Trump believe Fraud is taking place. (Or, to be more precise, because he claims to believe that).
The other point is to discourage the use of absentee ballots, with the broader goal of convincing pro-Trump state officials to revoke existing rules in absentia. After all, it is much more difficult to play with absent votes that, by definition, include a paper trail. On the other hand, in-person votes cast on electronic voting machines are more susceptible to manipulation and piracy, either by Russian agents or someone else, and we all know Trump’s business partners in Moscow and their record in American elections. In desperation, Trump will be eager to meddle in every voting format, covering all his bases.
Challenge after challenge could propel the entire election into the hands of the Supreme Court, home of the infamous Bush v. Gore decision, and there is no guarantee that the Chief Justice, John Roberts, will move as we hope he will. Regardless of where Trump’s legal challenges fall, he will absolutely use the courts as a delaying action, making the process lengthy at a time when the patience of the American people is virtually non-existent.
Voters are supposed to cast their vote on December 14, based on popular vote results. If there is a real declared winner for that date, I will be amazed. Trump’s legal challenges will be tough and he has been shown to have no qualms about giving up. (See also his relentless legal challenges to protect your tax returns from prosecutors and the oversight of Congress.)
It’s also possible that Trump’s indefinite deployment of federal stormtroopers in selected cities discourages some voters from participating. Trump’s screech has also suggested that he could order ICE and CBP thugs to monitor polling places, which could discourage Latino citizens or other recent immigrants from voting.
One more thing: As the days after the election plummet into chaos, I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump simply declared victory before all the votes were counted. That won’t mean much in the grand scheme, but it will further incite your people and make the chaos worse.
I don’t know how this will all end, but I feel relatively safe in predicting chaos. Honestly, as with all Trump, I hope I am wrong and this election concludes smoothly. But given King Joffrey the Flaccid’s actions lately, especially with his counter-constitutional deployment of unidentified soldiers to vanish protesters from the streets, it would be foolish to count on a smooth journey. The absolute best strategy for the Democratic Party, and indeed for all normals, is to prepare for a bloody mess before we have a winner. The party should be fully backed by law in anticipation of Trump’s bomb bombs that detonate in polling stations and state capitals across the country. Don’t go blind.
I think we can all agree that Donald Trump will not go quietly, or accept defeat with some measure of dignity. Knowing the stunts you’re likely to do, and preparing accordingly, is half the battle.
