Voting begins and ad wars escalates as the 2020 election enters the Home Stretch

Advertising spending, part of the anticipation for the presidential race, is one of the few measuring metrics of an irregular and epidemic-colored campaign unlike any other in modern history.

Coronavirus has already endorsed candidate activity, fundraising, national political conventions and door-to-door voting efforts. The size of the individual audience is also likely to be reduced for the three crucial debates between Republican President Trump and his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, starting later this month.

As the summer holidays come to an end and school resumes, Labor Day Weekend has long been seen as the beginning of a sprint to the end of the presidential campaign. But it has always been an artificial milestone, especially this year.

Voting may begin this week for some in the war-torn state of North Carolina, where ballots are due to be sent Friday from voters requesting a vote. Other states will begin voting later this month, showing voters that voters are extremely busy in the election.

Kevin Madden, a former adviser to the two Republican presidential campaigns, said he did not expect much change in the race until at least the first discussion took place. He said the enormous issues would be the management of the epidemic and its economic consequences by the government, as well as the use of force by the police against black people, causing significant property damage in fires and robberies in some cities. And recent violent clashes with pro-police protesters.

“The race has already been shaped by major events that have had a huge impact on voters,” Mr Madden said. “That will continue to be the case.”

According to a Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll released in mid-August, 50% of voters registered nationally support Mr. Biden and 41% support Mr. Trump. But voting in war-torn states, where the outcome will be decided, shows a close contest.

Of the six states where both sides are most focused – Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – Mr. According to RealClearPolitics.com poll averages, Biden has a narrow edge in all of this as of Friday.

The half-dozen national polls held after the bipartisan conventions showed the beginning of Gust was largely a no-brainer. Earlier last month, the realClearPolitics national average boosted Mr Biden by .4..4 percentage points. By Friday it had jumped 7.1 points.

“It’s not just from the conventions, but from the last year or so,” said Amy Watter, national editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report. “

Part of that reflects the fact that most voters have already made up their minds about Mr. Trump, and there are fewer voters who are considering undisputed or third-party candidates compared to 2016, Ms. Verter said.

Still, Democrats are trying to fight off any confidence they feel and warn against the scent. In 2016, the dynamics of the race changed in October, after a month-long poll suggested that party nominee Hillary Clinton lead the way to the White House.

U.S. “We expect this race to be close during the election,” Guy Cecil, chairman of the top super-political-action committee, which supports Mr Biden’s priorities, told reporters this week.

As of Friday, data from ad-tracking firm Kantar / CMAG showed that 44 445 million in television advertising orders had been placed by candidates and companies supporting them. Florida, where less than 1,000,000 votes out of more than a million voted to separate the two parties in the 1992 to 2016 presidential election, is set to receive about a quarter of a dollar.

Presidential television advertising costs planned by the state

Between now and the election a large number of advertisements will telegraph where the campaign puts its greatest emphasis, the volume is likely to move when early voting begins in a given state.

For the first week of September, Mr. Trump and his allies spent a dollar-per-election-elect ledge-vote on TV commercials in North Carolina, followed by Arizona and Iowa. For Mr. Biden and his colleagues, the top states for that metric were Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.

As the summer falls, Mr. Biden entered the home field with the intention of raising a record fund. His election campaign, including the Democratic National Committee and its subsidiaries, said he had collected તેણે 4,364.5 million during the month.

Trump’s re-election efforts, which include the Republican National Committee and its affiliated fundraising organizations, have not yet released funding figures for August, although he said last month that he raised $ 76 million during a national party convention.

In early August, Mr. Trump’s re-election efforts had more than 300 300 million in campaign cash, compared to Mr. Biden’s કામગીરી 294 million for the presidency. Neither campaign released cash on hand figures in late August.

The next few weeks will test local election officials, as an unprecedented number of voters will vote by mail due to concerns about the epidemic. Many states and counties have struggled to move forward despite their limited budgets and time.

In North Carolina, where more than 618,000 requests for the mail-in ballot have been received as of Thursday, state officials said they expect 30% to 40% of the vote to be cast by mail, with only 4% or 5% voting. Typical elections.

Iowa nonpartisan voter j. In a national poll released this week by Ann Selzer and Grinnell College, 49% of potential voters say they expect to cast their vote in person on election day, while 21% plan to vote by mail and 1% expect. Vote early at the Satellite polling station or local election office fee. The rest say they expect to use an absent dropbox or they are vague.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said Labor Day may be part of the occultism, but it still serves as a good indicator when Americans, especially older voters, begin to pay close attention.

Even with the expected large increase in early and mail-in voting, which will lock in more previous votes, Mr Sabato warned that the headlines made in October-October could still shake the race.

“We have the example of 2016, which provided new evidence that anything that happens in the end can have an impact,” he said. “Things can change rather quickly, at least in the swing that’s the thing.”

Write to MCCCormy on John [email protected] and Chad Day Chad.Day.