In an effort to survive, airlines are desperately trying to convince a convincing audience that measures such as mandatory face masks and hospital-class air filters sitting in an airplane are safer than many other indoor settings during the coronavirus pandemic.
It does not work.
Research indicates that instead of becoming more comfortable with air travel, more people are becoming skeptical about it. In the United States, airline bookings have stalled over the past month after rising steadily – in response to a new rise in reported virus infections.
Globally, air travel is down more than 85% from a year ago, according to industry figures.
The implications for the aviation industry are grave. Several leading carriers have already filed for bankruptcy protection, and if the hope of recovery is delayed much longer, the list will grow.
The four largest U.S. airlines lost a combined $ 10 billion from April to June. Their CEOs say they will survive, but they have lowered their expectations for a rebound.
“We all hoped the virus could run its course by the fall,” said Gary Kelly, CEO of Southwest Airlines. “Of course, that turned out to be wrong.”
When Consumer Reports in June surveyed more than 1,000 people about their comfort with various activities during the pandemic, 70% said flights were more or less unsafe. They assess that you go to a hospital ambulance or usually stand to vote as safer.
In a survey commissioned by an airline group, the biggest concern of travelers was the ability to sit next to an infected person.
John Kontak, a schoolmaster from Phoenix, said this was his fear when he stepped on a full-fledged American Airlines flight this summer to visit his parents in Ohio.
“I know nothing about this person sitting a foot away from me,” Kontak said. ‘They took the end line as the dollar over passenger safety. Next time, I’d rather drive back to Ohio than fly – it’s safer because I can drive it. ”
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says sitting within 2 feet (2 meters) of other passengers, often for hours, can increase the risk of obtaining COVID-19. But CDC also notes that most viruses and other germs do not spread easily on flights because of how air circulates on airplanes.
Standard & Poor’s said this week that the sector’s prospects have gone “from bad to worse”, with global air traffic falling by 70% this year. In May, S&P said a 55% drop was a worst-case scenario.
“It will be a slower and uneven recovery than one would have thought,” said S&P analyst Philip Baggaley.
An airline group, the International Air Transport Association, predicts that carriers will lose $ 84 billion this year, making it the worst year in the industry’s history. The group says that traffic will not fully recover until 2024.
Asia, where outbreaks were previously brought under control, is doing better than the US and Europe. Domestic travel in China has returned to about two-thirds of its annual level. In the US, traffic is less than one-third of 2019 levels.
Air traffic at more than 500 airports in Europe has tumbled, 94% down in June compared to the same month last year. There were about 4 million passengers, compared to 217 million a year earlier.
Travel is picking up as more than two dozen European countries open borders to each other in early July, but virus cases have increased in several countries, leading to renewed restrictions. This week, the United Kingdom imposed a 14-day quarantine obligation on travelers – even returning Britons – from France and the Netherlands. Travel from outside Europe, including the United States, is still limited.
In the United States, post-collapse traffic increased by 95% in April, but has stopped – by 74% in July, 72% in August.
Airlines got this crisis financially in the best shape ever, thanks to increasing demand for travel, reduced competition through mergers, and billions raised through additional fees.
Among international carriers, the major airlines are almost certain to survive. In Asia and the Middle East, they are often seen as vital contributors to the general economy. Likewise, major European carriers including Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and British Airways may be too important to fail.
It’s too late for Flybe; it closes in March. The two largest companies in Latin America, Avianca and Latam, have filed for bankruptcy protection. That the Aeromexico I. Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Australia, both part of British mogul Richard Branson’s galaxy of companies, are using the courts to repay debts.
In the US, Trans states and Compass, which fly smaller planes for the big airlines, and Ravn Air on Alaska, but the big airlines have survived with billions in government aid and billions more in private lending.
U.S. airlines have scrambled to reassure travelers that planes are safe. They require passengers to wear face masks and are cleaning toilets more thoroughly, even spraying seats with antimicrobial mist.
“You can smell the cleaning that is done, and everything is basically wiped from top to bottom – chairs, window shades, even the light switches and overhead bins,” said Jason Bounds, a veteran aircraft at Delta Air Lines.
The airlines split in one respect. Delta, Southwest, JetBlue and Alaska have left some seats empty to make room for passengers. United, Americans and Spirit do not, claiming that social distance is impossible on an airplane.
Most flights have enough empty seats, but scenes of full planes alert travelers.
Carol Braddick, a business coach and consultant who splits her time between Phoenix and England, was so concerned about the American Airlines alliance from her trip to the UK that she sought a COVID-19 test upon arrival.
The person I was sitting next to was drinking non-stop, yelling at his friend in a row behind him; they roared back and forth, ”said Braddick. “The combination of alcohol, screaming and no mask is unacceptable, and the pilot started nothing.”
Braddick is outlining plans for a few short holiday trips within Europe this summer.
“The new reality for us is less travel, longer stays, and being much more selective about which airline we will fly,” she said.
Even frequent flyers like Seth Miller, who writes about travel on his PaxEx.aero website, ground themselves.
“A lot because I love to travel and miss, it seems to me not worth the risk,” he said.
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Nathan Ellgren in Washington, DC, contributed to this report.
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David Koenig can be reached at www.twitter.com/airlinewriter.
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