Every year, the folks at Football Outsiders compile their list of the 25 best prospects in the NFL for next year. His definition of a prospect is based largely on both playing time and where a player was recruited. Here is the full list of his criteria for a player to be considered a prospect:
- Selected in the third round or later, or signed as an unselected free agent.
- He entered the NFL between 2017 and 2019.
- Fewer than 500 offensive or defensive snapshots (except runners, who are allowed only 300 offensive snapshots).
- He hasn’t signed a contract extension (however, players who have jumped through the league looking for the right place still qualify for the roster).
- 26 years or less in 2020.
Their roster is behind the big E $ PN payout wall, but I’m pleased to report that the Minnesota Vikings got two of the top ten prospects on the Football Outsiders roster, including the best overall prospect.
That player? None other than defensive end Ifeadi Odenigbo. This is what they had to say about him.
With the Vikings separating from Everson Griffen, it’s a pretty clear projection to assume that Odenigbo will move into the starting lineup. But in case you need a reassuring word from Vikings defensive line coach / co-coordinator Andre Patterson, he told Vikings reporters in a conference call: “I am excited for Ifeadi to continue to improve as a player.” He made great strides last year and is a great worker. I know the tail is breaking at the moment. … In fact, I have to talk to him about not overtraining. “
Odenigbo’s roots at Northwestern were as a powerful player with moves and flashes of NFL passes and passes, but the Wildcats divided him into platoons. Still, he led the Big Ten in sacks as a senior, with 10, and ran a 4.72-second, 40-yard dash on the combine. His performance on our SackSEER projection system was 62.7%, impressive for a low round pick; Odenigbo had an explosion rate of 0.61 and offered a lot of university production.
In the last five games of last season, Odenigbo had four of his seven sacks, forced a fumble and returned another fumble for a 56-yard touchdown. He brought down Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers last season. He may still have a platoon with a different defender in bad races if that section of his game gets off to a bad start, but Odenigbo is well on his way to becoming another later win on the brink for a Vikings team already starting 2015. third off-road Danielle Hunter.
Not to be outdone, running back Alexander Mattison is also on the list, ranking # 9 overall.
Bottom line: With Dalvin Cook holding on and on the brink of free agency, there are very few players in a better potential future situation than Mattison. Gary Kubiak’s running backs have been doing 1,000-yard seasons, whether they’re good or not, even before Football Outsiders existed. The Vikings chose Mattison in the third round despite the fact that several experts don’t rate him as highly, suggesting they hold him in high regard.
Mattison, like Cook, had a rather mediocre combine harvester that ended up with a faceplant on the 40-yard dash, with a time of just 4.67 seconds at 221 pounds. That’s the defensive linebacker’s speed. But Mattison showed just about everything you could want from a runner: physicality, speed, vision, and intelligence. It all led to mass production at Boise State, as Mattison even saw the field for all 13 games in his first year.
In his first season in Minnesota, Mattison finished with a respectable 24 DYAR in 100 bags, despite a relatively low success rate of 38%. Mattison averaged 4.6 yards per attempt, with no negative actual division when the zone plays are executed, but the SIS cards loaded the Vikings with 11 blocks destroyed during those 100 attempts, and those 11 carries averaged less than 1.2 yards. With enough skill to be a competent receiver too, the Vikings have the best advantage against a Cook holdout: someone who can do the job just as well without a high price.
Yes, I know Cook is not resisting. As of now, he is on the training ground. But, the rest of the points that FO makes are valid.
If the Vikings are going to push for the NFC North title, or at least a postseason spot, in 2020, they’re going to need solid contributions from Odenigbo and Mattison, among others. We hope both players live up to the enthusiasm the Football Outsiders people have for them this coming season.
