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Today’s media availability presents a slightly less familiar (and appropriately masked) face: that of Dr. Josh Ennis, Humboldt County Deputy Director of Health. He sat down to answer questions from local reporters regarding the County’s Alert Level Assessment Tool, a four-level classification of our current COVID-19 risk, based on case prevalence, the capacity of our care system medical and county effectiveness. disease control measures.
We are currently at Level 2, which indicates a moderate number of cases, most of which come from known sources.
We’ve summarized Dr. Ennis’ questions and answers below, or you can watch the video above.
Level 1 appears as the “new normal,” but most indicators nationwide suggest that the pandemic is far from over. Do you expect us to stay at Level 2 for a while, or do local trends suggest that we will move to Level 1 in the near future? (0:20)
Ennis says that when staff described Level 1 as the new normal, it was an acknowledgment “that the pandemic is not going anywhere anytime soon and that we can expect things to be different for a long period of time.” That includes washing your hands, social distancing, and covering your face.
The pandemic is peaking across the country, and since Humboldt is not separate from the rest of the country, “I don’t see us dropping any levels in the near future,” says Ennis. “In any case, I would say that it is a constant march towards the escalation of the disease, because we are not in a vacuum.”
What would guarantee us to pass to a level 3 or even 4? (1:56)
There are many factors involved in determining what level we are at. This tool allows staff “to systematically and methodically look at the same things day by day, week by week so we don’t miss a thing,” says Ennis.
It is not as simple as a static snapshot of the current case count, for example drawing a line between 10 and 11. New cases are diagnosed regularly, but county health care resources (ventilators, hospital beds, etc.) and Public Health “disease control effectiveness”, which involves testing levels, contact tracing, and more, also play an important role.
Can you explain how the transmission of the virus, in addition to the case count, affects the level of alertness? (5:05)
Community transmission (when the source of the infection is unknown) is “much more concerning than travel-related cases or contact with a known case,” says Ennis, because it means there is “much more [cases] floating around. ”
Does this assessment tool explain the county’s frequent delays in receiving test results? (6:11)
When the results come after someone had the disease and recovered, public health can’t do much to control the spread, Ennis says, so yes, that’s taken into account.
Mendocino and Del Norte counties are experiencing large outbreaks. Shouldn’t the alert tool take into account the state of the pandemic at the regional level? (7:41)
Ennis says it is “a fantastic suggestion” and something the staff has thought of. And the alert tool, in fact, allows a certain dynamic capacity to move between levels depending on what is happening around us.
When do you expect the “surge” to hit Humboldt, and what do you expect the fall flu season to be like? (9:16)
Simulation models that run early in the pandemic are very different from being able to predict the future, says Ennis. The cumulative effect of handwashing, masks, and social estrangement is difficult to quantify. “My opinion is that we can certainly expect to see many more cases in the fall and winter,” he says.
It is impossible to say whether we will experience a sudden surge that overwhelms healthcare facilities, such as in New York. Cases could go up and then level off, he says. Our local health care system “is a bit of an island,” meaning that an increase could potentially have “a devastating effect on our ability to care for everyone who needs care,” he says.
Can you give an estimate of what percentage of local cases, particularly among the Latinx community, work as essential labor? What kind of jobs, specifically? (12:13)
Public Health does not track job information, although they are looking to start doing so. In general, Latino / Hispanic identification groups work in lower-paying jobs, making it harder to shelter-in-place, he says. This group works more frequently in agriculture and construction, which puts them at greater risk.
African Americans and Latinos are suffering disproportionately. “The pandemic has caused long-standing health inequities,” says Ennis. COVID-19 takes advantage of people with underlying conditions, which these minority groups most often have. “[W]We all need to work harder to try and alter the course here, ”he says.
