Customers dine outside at the Via Carota restaurant in West Village, New York, June 26, 2020.
Noam Galai | fake pictures
American companies saw a spike in activity in early July as states eased restrictions to contain the new coronavirus pandemic, a Federal Reserve report showed Wednesday, but were unsure about the economic outlook amid of a recent increase in cases in many parts of the country. .
The mixed picture illustrated in the latest snapshot of the US central bank of business views reflects broader economic data, from the unemployment rate to manufacturing activity, which have improved since orders to stay home were They eased in many parts of the country in late May, but could soon show signs of hesitation.
“Economic activity increased in almost all districts, but remained well below where it was before the COVID-19 pandemic,” the Fed said in its report, referring to respiratory illness caused by the virus. “The outlook remained highly uncertain as contacts grappled with how long the COVID-19 pandemic would continue and the magnitude of its economic implications.”
The Fed survey, known as the “Beige Book,” was conducted in its 12 districts from late May through July 6.
Economists expect US economic growth to contract at its fastest pace in the second quarter since the Great Depression, and original hopes for a rapid economic rebound have faded as the United States continues to struggle to contain the virus. , almost five months after the first case was reported. on American soil.
The Fed report showed that across the survey period, a wide range of industries, from entertainment and hospitality to professional and business services, rebounded, but remained weak compared to the previous year’s levels.
In the Cleveland Federal Reserve district, for example, many sectors indicated that they brought inactive workers back only slowly and were unlikely to be rehired in the short term.
Business contacts there too “remain concerned about the sustainability of the recovery if the spread of COVID-19 is not contained,” the report said.
That stage may already be on the train. Federal Reserve officials warned on Tuesday that a “thick fog” is looming for the economy as they continued to reset expectations about the pace of recovery amid fears that a second wave of cases could cause unemployment to rise again. .
The resurgence of new infections, especially in the highly populated South, led by Texas and Florida, and the West, has led some authorities in these regions to close businesses again or pause reopens.
The Dallas Fed reported that while the district regained its economic position “the resurgence of … infections and a pause in the reopening of the district’s economy were causing concern.”
In addition, the St. Louis Fed said that economic activity had recovered sharply, but that the pace of recovery seemed to have slowed since mid-June with “slightly more pessimistic” contacts.
On Wednesday, April 29, 2020, a worker wearing a protective mask and gloves assembles face shields at the Cartamundi-owned Hasbro manufacturing facility in East Longmeadow, Massachusetts, USA.
Adam Glanzman | Bloomberg | fake pictures
The San Francisco Fed noted that Los Angeles restaurant contacts were already waiting for the economic pain to deepen again.
They had “modestly increased employment, but anticipated having to reinstate permits due to a reversal in the reopening process,” the report said.
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