Mike Pompeo joins the United States on a collision course with most of its UN partners in an attempt to extend Iran’s isolation.
The US Secretary of State will use the diplomatic gambit on Thursday, claiming that the US is still a participant in the 2015 nuclear deal of 2015 – of which Donald Trump explicitly withdrew two years ago – and therefore retains the right under the rules of to trigger a “snapback” as a refund of full UN sanctions.
Very few other UN member states think the US has the power to do this. American isolation was illustrated by a similar vote in the Security Council last week, in which it received support from the Dominican Republic alone, despite an intense and purposeful lobbying campaign.
Pompeo will meet with UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the current chairman of the UN Security Council, Indonesian Permanent Representative Diane Triansyah Djani, in New York on Thursday, to deliver a formal announcement that the US is considering Iran in non-compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The snapback mechanism was written into the JCPOA to give the parties to the deal the confidence that one of their sanctions could be re-imposed if Iran breaches the agreement. It was not intended for a state that had left the agreement to exploit it. The US still claims to be a JCPOA participant through a legal technicality.
After a report of non-compliance has been served, there is a 30-day window, after which, in the absence of a Security Council resolution, the opposite, all UN sanctions imposed instead are under the 2015 deal, back will take place.
It is likely that Pompeo has timed his visit to the UN so that the month-long grace period ends in time for Donald Trump’s speech at the summit of the UN General Assembly in the last week of September, whereby the President can declare that UN sanctions have been restored.
It is likely that most other member states, including the majority of US allies, will disagree on the grounds that the US has no right to use the mechanism. The US is trying to rally support and put some pressure on the UK, which has so far clashed with European forces over the problem.
Richard Gowan, the UN director at the International Crisis Group, said that US leaks earlier in the year, revealing that it had threatened the UK and other European countries with sanctions if they did not take action against Iran, had backfired.
“That was an incredibly stupid move, because ministers in London, especially in London, were worried that the US would treat them this way, and in fact that was probably the first time the Johnson administration in London began to support them. , and asked if it really wanted to support the US in this process, ”Gowan said.
The outcome is expected to be messy, with conflicting versions of reality, and no clear judge. The case could be referred to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, but a verdict could take a year.
Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, predicted that European diplomats could play ahead in talks on sanctions and support a statement from other members of the Security Council who did not recognize the snapback.
“Other peoples seem ready to treat it like a tirade of an emerging toddler and hope that the US grows rapidly from its maximum pressure phase,” Geranmayeh said.
Wendy Sherman, a former State Department official who was the leading U.S. negotiator on the JCPOA, said: ‘This is really a process that is simply mixed up in the procedural political process of the United Nations, and to at the end of the day, we I will leave with a cry, not with a blow. ”
Confusion may be affecting the Trump administration, which is seen internally as difficult for Iran and the UN. It will also make banks and companies worse off about financing Iranian purchases of even humanitarian goods on the global market, increasing pressure on Tehran.
Most observers believe that the ultimate goal of Trump and Pompeo is to provoke Iran into retaliation, formal dismissal from the JCPOA and dismissal of nuclear inspectors, for example, making it impossible to negotiate the 2015 agreement, even if Joe Biden holds the presidency in November wins.
