The Trump administration had made a major effort to normalize relations with the former Soviet republic, in part as an attempt to prevent Belarus from falling completely under Moscow’s control.
However, when the US joined European allies in the dispute over the outcome of the Belarusian presidential election and ongoing protests and outbursts by the regime of “the last dictator of Europe” – Alexander Lukashenko – experts told CNN that it path of diplomatic approach with Minsk is unclear.
On Monday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement expressing her concern about the election, saying it was “not free and fair.”
“We urge the Belarussian government to respect the rights of all Belarusians to participate in peaceful assembly, to refrain from using force and to release unjustified liberals. We condemn the continuing violence against Protestants and the retaining opposition leaders strongly, ”Pompeo added.
At a press conference in Prague on Wednesday, the top US diplomat reiterated his concern about the election, adding, “We want the people of Belarus to have the freedoms they demand, that they think they are in their best interests.”
Lukashenko, who has ruled for 26 years, has been under US sanctions since 2006 following a presidential election “that violated international standards and was not free or fair,” according to the US state.
In February, Pompeo became the official at the highest level to visit Minsk in years. He said optimism that the day of meetings with officials, including Lukashenko, “would serve a solid first step would improve relations and closer ties.”
He also noted that “further progress in those areas (of democracy and civil rights) and others is the only path in the direction of lifting sanctions.”
US appoints first ambassador to Minsk since 2008
In April, the White House announced its nominee for US Ambassador to Belarus: Julie Fisher, a career foreign service officer. As confirmed, she would be the first U.S. ambassador to Minsk since 2008, when the Belarussian government ousted the ambassador and 30 of 35 U.S. diplomats.
“The first component to ensuring we can continue this relationship” is that it “does not look backwards in the run-up to the presidential election,” Fisher told the Senate First Remembrance Committee during its confirmation hearing last week.
On Tuesday, sen called. Chris Murphy stepped up to “set aside” Fisher’s nomination.
“Trump wants to restore diplomatic relations with Belarus. The ambassador’s nominee is pending in the Senate. At the moment, this would be a huge mistake. It would look like a distinction from the collapse of Lukashenko,” he said. “the Connecticut Democrat wrote on Twitter.
Heather Conley, former Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic and Director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, joined.
“I think it would be wise at the moment to stop this just in time, but in the meantime we need to better reopen the diplomatic channels with Berlin, with Brussels, with our key European partners, because we have a uniform policy approach for White. “Russia is needed; the only way this will work,” she said.
Melinda Haring, the deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, claimed that the unrest in Belarus underscored the US need to have an envoy on the ground.
“We need an ambassador in Minsk. We have needed an ambassador in Minsk for a long time. And the person appointed, Julie Fisher, is phenomenal. And we need her now to help negotiate,” Haring told CNN . “The United States can not be a player if we do not have someone on the ground in Minsk.”
In May, the administration announced a major shipment of U.S. oil to Belarus, something it saw at the time as strengthening Belarus’ sovereignty and independence.
US ‘strategy has now collapsed’
Conley noted that “most” of the U.S. strategy on tackling Belarus “has always sought to create energy diversity for Belarus, in an attempt to overcome Russian energy dependence,” but events in the past several days “suggest that the strategy has now collapsed and we will have to take a different approach here.”
“It is unclear how and if the Trump administration will recalibrate its policy, or whether that policy will be in sync with the European Union,” she said.
Minsk has enjoyed close ties with Moscow, and is technically part of a loose binary confederation with Russia. US and NATO military planners have long expressed concerns about Russian influence and presence in Belarus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was quick to release a statement on Sunday’s vote, saying it “undoubtedly meets the fundamental interests of the fraternal peoples of Russia and Belarus,” and promised “mutually beneficial Russian Belarusian relations in all areas. “
The Belarussian leader has earned a reputation for trying to maintain his independence from his country by separating the West and Moscow. But with Lukashenko’s political future in doubt, experts told CNN they believe the Kremlin will ratchet up the pressure.
“I think Lukenshenko is in a bind,” Haring said. “Lukashenka had to cheat massively, and he just got a message from the Kremlin ad. It was more a list to do than it was a congratulation. Putin says: you know, you won, but here are the things that ‘ we want from you. “
“It looks like Putin had it with Lukashenko,” said Anders Åslund, a resident senior fellow at the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council.
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