Russia has announced that it wants peace in Libya, according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He told reporters that Russia is working with Turkey on an immediate ceasefire agreement. However, Russia’s commitment to the process is questionable. Lavrov’s announcement followed the postponement of the weekend of ministerial-level talks on the ceasefire.
Russia has had a strong military involvement in the Libyan civil war. The United Nations reported in May that between 800 and 1,200 Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group are fighting in Libya. The private security company, also seen on the battlefields of Ukraine and Syria, is headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian oligarch and close friend of the Russian president. Vladimir Putin
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Despite Russian denials that the group is an arm of the state, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Russia was handling the conflict in Libya at the “highest level”. To prove his point, he showed the media a photograph of the Wagner leader in talks with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, the chief of staff. The Wagner Group “is not a classic private contractor; it is … an unofficial arm of the Defense Ministry, “said Ruslan Leviev, whose Conflict Intelligence Team studied Russia’s clandestine deployment to Syria.
In addition to ground troops, Russia has sent air support to the Libyan rebels. The United States African Command (AFRICOM) reported the arrival in May of at least 14 Russian aircraft at al-Jufra airfield. These aircraft include MIG-29 fighters and SU-24 bombers. Despite Russian denials that the planes were theirs (the planes stopped en route in Syria to have their Russian markings erased), AFRICOM said it had followed the planes on radar since its departure in Russia and took photos of the planes on their journey.
“For too long, Russia has denied the full extent of its involvement in the ongoing Libyan conflict,” said Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander of AFRICOM. “Well, it can’t be denied now. We saw Russia fly fourth-generation fighter jets to Libya, every step of the way. Neither him [Libyan National Army] Nor can private military companies arm, operate and maintain these fighters without the support of the state, the support they are obtaining from Russia. “
There is a story behind the Russian tactic of military involvement in civil wars, while also playing peace. Russian troops fought against Moldova in the late 1980s as they began a peace process. In the 1990s, Russian troops backed an Armenian invasion of Azerbaijan and then called for a ceasefire. In the 2000s, Russia supported the secession of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia while chairing the peace talks. Following Russia’s takeover of Crimea and its covert support for secessionists in eastern Ukraine, Russia called for peace. More recently, with Russian troops openly intervening in Syria, the Kremlin agreed to a ceasefire. To quote General Joseph Votel, commander of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), Russia acts as an arsonist and firefighter.
None of these ceasefires has resulted in peace. At best, conflicts are “frozen”; at worst, fighting is still going on despite Russia’s alleged peace proposals. The end result has been the institutionalization of a Russian military presence throughout the region. The Russian army continues its crew of barracks in the Moldovan secessionist region of Transnistria, has several military bases in Armenia, has turned Crimea into an armed camp, and has integrated the Abkhaz and South Ossetian forces into the Russian army. Syria has granted Russia an extension of its naval base in Tartus, including extraterritoriality.
A prolonged Russian military presence in Libya places southern Europe at a surprising distance from the Kremlin arm. Not content to threaten European countries with power cuts (2006 and 2009, over price disputes with Ukraine), Russia can now militarily threaten NATO’s southern flank. The United States and its NATO allies must be alarmed by these events. An enforced United Nations embargo on arms shipments is not enough to roll back Russia’s ever-expanding catchment area.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that the alliance is ready to support the Libyan government, but only NATO member Turkey has increased its support for the internationally recognized Government of National Unity. Turkey’s muscular response has led Libya’s rebel general, Khalifa Haftar, to leave the western half of the country. In exchange, the government signed an agreement with Ankara granting drilling rights to Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean.
The United States is committed to a Europe that is “free and undivided.” However, in an era of disengagement, the United States has been on hold as Russia increased its influence in countries from Afghanistan to Libya. The American people are tired of endless wars with ambiguous goals, but the United States should at least engage diplomatically and economically to achieve the goals outlined in its National Security Strategy. Anything less will lead to a continued decline in American influence, a loss of allies and business partners seeking other markets. Time is a luxury that Washington can no longer afford.
James J. Coyle, Ph.D., held various positions in the US government, including as director of Middle East Studies, US Army War College. He is the author of “Russia’s Border Wars and Frozen Conflicts”.
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