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On November 5 there was a sharp collapse of the dollar rate on the foreign exchange market. In the non-money market, the US currency immediately fell by 20.5 kopecks and the interbank closed at 28.20-28.22 UAH / $. It returned to the level of two weeks ago.
Prices at the box office also fell proportionally. Average rates for “Americans” fell by 20 kopecks:
- up to 28.40-28.60 UAH / $ – on sale;
- up to 28.15-28.30 UAH / $ – for purchase.
The collapse of the dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was arranged by the National Bank. Thoughtful and determined.
After the completion of large currency purchases a few days ago, foreigners no longer buy dollars in the interbank market, because the demand is small. At the same time, sales of the “American” are quite active: Exporters are converting profits into foreign currency to pay the salaries of their employees, and some companies have already started preparing for the tax season. Therefore, there was a foreign exchange surplus.
Usually the “extra” dollar is bought immediately by the National Bank. It does so at current interbank market prices or a few kopecks cheaper. However, today the NBU prolonged its entry into the market and caused the dollar to collapse similar to an avalanche. Events developed as follows:
- offers from the first morning – at UAH 28.40-28.42 / $;
- on demand growth – an increase in price to 28.45-28.46 UAH / $;
- big purchases ended: prices moved away by 28.40 UAH / $;
- there are no buyers and all expect purchases from the National Bank: 28.28-28.35 UAH / $;
- NBU does not buy and nervousness grows in auctions – 28.30 UAH / $;
- They feared the regulator will not buy back the dollar, a collapse from 28.20 to 28.22 UAH / $.
Only in the last stage after lunch, after the market had passed all the stages of strengthening the hryvnia, with a reduction in quotations to UAH 28.20-28.22 / $, the National Bank appeared in the auction . He offered two exchange rates for the redemption of the dollar: at 28.20 UAH / $ and 28.2050 UAH / $. As a result, he acquired $ 20 million at UAH 28.2050 / $.
“The currency market today experienced a powerful end of the world. The lack of buyers reduced the interbank market, nailed it. Sellers were devastated by low prices,” Andrey Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club analysis department, told Strana .
The financiers say that in this way the regulator wanted to level the situation in the foreign exchange market.
“The National Bank tried to stop the spontaneous rise in the price of the dollar and make sure that it was not triggered again. And also to pressure exporters and importers to sign forward contracts to have a predictable dollar exchange rate for their transactions “Financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky told Strana.
Today, the NBU pursued one goal: to teach a lesson to the currency speculators who have been actively driving the market lately. They showed quotes at UAH 28.63 / $, set a target of UAH 28.70 / $ and more.
“In the interbank market there are several groups of banks that push the market, often artificially. They transact with each other to inflate the prices and make money. Today they were dragged and led to losses. They could not resell the currency bought at a high price and they were forced to dump their reserves at 28.35 UAH / $ and cheaper. The National Bank deliberately arranged everything so that the banks would not flirt, and paused in speculation. The NBU, in principle, changed the principles of I work on the interbank market after the head of the open markets department was replaced: Alexey arrived instead of Sergei Ponomarenko Lupine: Everyone knows that Ponomarenko told the banks what to do and leaked the insider, Lupine does not do that punishes, “the director of the treasury of a large bank told Strana.
After today’s harassment of the National Bank, the exchange market was lost. Few promised to provide forecasts for tomorrow’s operations. Everyone understands that the course for them will depend on the NBU, and it will be much more difficult to predict their actions in the current situation than before. The treasurers interviewed by Strana support two scenarios for event development:
- First: the interbank market will open within UAH 28.20-28.30 / $, after which the quotes will close at around UAH 28.22-28.25 / $.
- second: the National Bank will allow the hryvnia to further strengthen, up to 28.10-28.15 UAH / $. But after the activation of purchases of foreign currency at this level, prices will start to grow again.
The euro rises in price due to the US elections
The euro exchange rate continues to grow in the world market: today it has gone from $ 1.1730 / € to $ 1.1805 / € after moving in the range of $ 1.1711-1.1860 / €.
Like the previous two days, investors dumped the dollar due to political risk: the US presidential election. And today they began to do it even more actively, when statements were made about falsifying voting results and protests about it.
It also affected the report on the decrease in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States by 7 thousand (up to 751 thousand applications), which is worse than the forecasts of analysts. At the same time, the market expects negative statements from the US Federal Reserve tomorrow about the impact on the economy of the coronavirus states. The Fed will make a statement about your rate (it will most likely keep it at the previous level) and make forecasts.
In Ukraine, the euro cash exchange rate today rose 5 kopecks:
- up to 33.55-33.70 UAH / € – for sale
- up to 33.0-33.20 UAH / € – for purchase.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that the price of bitcoin has risen sharply due to the US elections, investors are getting rid of the dollar.
We also report that the dollar reversed as soon as foreigners stopped buying the currency.
