[ad_1]
On Thursday, April 1, the non-monetary dollar exchange rate rose one kopeck and the new month in the interbank market started in the range of 27.86-27.87 UAH / $. At bank tellers, cash rates increased further, by 5 kopecks:
- up to 27.85-28.0 UAH / $ – on sale;
- up to 27.55-27.80 UAH / $ – for purchase.
But the demand for foreign exchange by the population was minimal and prices on the spot wholesale market did not change: 27.76-27.79 UAH / $.
Today there was not much enthusiasm in the interbank market: the total volume of transactions on the Bloomberg platform grew minimally, from $ 130 million to $ 134 million.
“Trade was calm. Banks were selling foreign exchange from their positions, and also the agricultural sector, but quite a lot. The business continues to assimilate the hryvnia, which it received as part of the VAT refund at the end of March. But, I think that agraristas will soon become more active, “said financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
Morning trading started at UAH 27.83-27.85 / $, and prices fell, at UAH 27,815-27,830 / $. The currency appreciation and upward movement started only around lunchtime. The Interbank Bank entered first at UAH 27.845-27.86 / $, and then at UAH 27.86-27.87 / $.
The rise in currency prices is explained by the intensification of foreign currency purchases by foreigners. The treasurers discussed the dollar purchases of Citibank, Raiffeisen Bank Aval and Alfa-Bank. They were explained in different ways: some spoke about the risks of the intensification of the spread of the coronavirus in Ukraine, and others about the fears of the escalation of the conflict in the east of the country.
“After statements by the Ukrainian intelligence service that Russia is preparing large-scale operations on Ukrainian territory, foreign buyers of government bonds began to ask questions about it. Only questions. I have not heard of the hasty withdrawal of capital in This sense. It’s not just a first reaction, “the director told Strana to the treasury of a large bank on the basis of anonymity.
Analysts believe that the interbank market has not yet begun to seriously digest the news of the war.
“The news is not yet on the market. The tension is growing, and they know it. But there are not very strong statements,” Andrey Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club analysis department, commented on the situation to “Strana”.
Financiers believe that the hryvnia exchange rate will seriously react to the news from Donbass only in the event of a serious aggravation of the situation at the front. In this case, foreigners will begin to actively withdraw their capital from our government bonds, and the population will buy more dollars in cash. What will cause the devaluation of the hryvnia.
“If there is a real escalation of hostilities, then the departure of non-residents will definitely affect the hryvnia. Partial activation of the population in buying foreign currency is also possible,” Shevchishin admitted.
Of course, everyone hopes that this does not happen. After all, Ukraine now needs injections of foreign currency. The National Bank needs to replenish its gold and foreign exchange reserves to help the government pay the national debt. And the Ministry of Finance will increase the volume of OVDP (national government bonds) placements. It must also cover the budget deficit, which will increase due to the tightening of the blockade and debt service payments.
Starting next Tuesday, April 6, the Ministry of Finance announced the placement of five government bond issues denominated in hryvnia:
- for 3 months with a limit of 500 million UAH;
- for 1 year, unlimited;
- for 1.5 years, unlimited;
- for 2 years, unlimited;
- for 3 years, unlimited.
Treasurers are not sure that the Ministry of Finance can attract large amounts of funds from the sale of these securities. During the last placement this week, on March 30, they were able to receive just UAH 4.5 billion in hryvnia (the rest of the volume came in dollars). Although they used to receive many times more.
Tomorrow, April 2, quiet trading is expected in the interbank market due to the start of the European holidays before Catholic Easter. Open deals are expected to be 27.85-27.87 UAH / $.
The rate of the euro rose to a record
The euro exchange rate on the world market was growing for the second day in a row: it rose from $ 1.1743 / € to $ 1.1772 / € after oscillating between $ 1.1713-1.1763 / €.
Traders sentiments were affected by the Markit Economics report, which confirmed the growth in the eurozone countries of the March business activity index (PMI) in industrial production from 57.9 to 62.5 points, a record historical. Therefore, a positive reaction followed. The euro bought more actively.
However, Commerzbank analysts told the Wall Street Journal that US economic growth in April will outpace Europe due to weak EU measures to combat the coronavirus and lack of additional economic stimulus. In this sense, experts expect the euro to depreciate in the future.
In Ukraine, the euro cash exchange rate increased today by 5 kopecks on sale and did not change on purchase. As a result, the following price ranges were formed:
- 32.75-32.90 UAH / € – for sale;
- 32.25-32.50 UAH / € – for purchase.
