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The exchange rate of the dollar in Ukraine has added almost three kopecks, photo: “Country”
The new week started with a slight increase in the price of the non-monetary dollar by 2.5 kopecks. On October 19, the interbank closed at 28.3750-28.3850 UAH / $.
The cash market was generally stable. The average selling rate of US currency at the box office has not changed since Friday, it remained within the range of UAH 28.45-28.55 / $. And on the purchase, it rose 10 kopecks, up to 28.15-28.30 UAH / $.
Banks are gradually increasing their personal foreign exchange reserves, so they are more willing to buy the “American” of the population.
The interbank market remained calm, with an average volume of transactions of $ 153 million, although there was no significant variation in the exchange rate, it moved within 1-1.5 kopecks.
“After the weekend, trade was very calm and balanced. There were no major players. There was neither the National Bank, nor Naftogaz with the sale of the dollar, nor foreigners with the purchase of foreign currency. Exports and imports dominated” commented financial analyst Vasily on the market mood. Nevmerzhitsky.
Other experts also spoke about the passivity of currency trading.
“There are no ideas for the move. A feeling of indifference. As if everything is on hiatus. They are waiting for the president’s speech and the placement of government bonds tomorrow,” Andrey Shevchishin, head of Forex analysis department told Strana. Club.
Today was the last day of payment of the single tax (for taxpayers of groups I and II). This supported currency sales. Although the key point was the conversion of income by the agricultural sector.
The news of the day, which was most actively discussed, was the new exchange rate forecast for the hryvnia from the International Monetary Fund. They have been significantly improved, both this year and the next five years:
- for 2020 – 27.20 UAH / $ (previously 30 UAH / $ predicted)
- for 2021 – UAH 28.12 / $ (UAH 28.9 / $)
- by 2022 – UAH 27.96 / $ (UAH 28.6 / $)
- for 2023 – UAH 28.10 / $ (UAH 28.7 / $)
- for 2024 – UAH 28.10 / $ (UAH 28.7 / $)
- for 2025 – 28.10 UAH / $ (28.7 UAH / $).
At the same time, the IMF improved its forecast for the decline of the Ukrainian economy in 2020 from 8.2%, which it had forecast in June, to 7.2%. The messages were received positively in the foreign exchange market.
The treasurers also continued to assimilate Friday’s message from the National Bank on the appointment of the director of the department of open markets, Alexei Lupine, who, after the resignation of the previous head Sergei Ponomarenko, was in office. director. This unit controls the operation of the interbank market and the exchange market as a whole.
As Strana previously reported with reference to official NBU information, 38 candidates applied for this position (there were many applications for the competition).
“It turned out that most of the candidates had someone behind them. They had all worked in some banks before, they defended the interests of various financial and industrial groups, individual oligarchs. Both Ukrainians and foreigners. He constantly brings personally verified people from Ukrgasbank to the president of the National Bank, Kirill Shevchenko “. They don’t give, and there are few impartial treasurers on the market (this position required a competent treasurer), hardly anyone left. Everything is under someone. And Lupine spent almost his entire career at the National Bank, he was there with all the presidents. The war for this department was serious, and Lupine turned out to be a figure of compromise, “the vice president of one of the banks commented on the situation to Strana.
For tomorrow, financiers predict a quiet start to trading, within the range of 28.36-28.39 UAH / $.
“This week, the dollar in the interbank market can be traded in a week around 28.5 UAH / $, and the cash rate can move between 28.4 and 28.6 UAH / $,” said Vadim Iosub, analyst Alpari senior.
On the placement by the Ministry of Finance of a new portion of government bonds, they give average forecasts.
“Together, from the sale of OVDP, they can attract about 4-6 billion UAH. This is from all issues, including foreign currency,” predicted Vasyl Nevmerzhitsky.
Tomorrow, the government will place two hryvnia government bond issues (3- and 12-month) and one 12-month dollar.
Europe has recalculated the risks of the coronavirus
The euro exchange rate on the world market on October 19 rose from $ 1.1718 / € to $ 1.1789 / €. Throughout the day, the stock traded at $ 1.1703-1.1794 / €.
Investors decided that the spread of the coronavirus in Europe would not have as strong an impact on the Old World economy as previously thought.
“The magnitude of the current restrictions on movement in Europe is far from those that led to a sudden stop in the global economy,” for example, Axi market strategist Stephen Innes quoted France-Presse as saying.
At the same time, traders continue to monitor the situation in the United States, where today there is hope for the approval of a package of measures to save the American economy from the coronavirus epidemic. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said today that it could be adopted before Election Day, despite disagreements with the head of the White House, Donald Trump.
“There is growing optimism that there will be one last major push for a stimulus deal,” Edward Moya, Oanda’s senior market analyst, told Reuters.
In Ukraine, the euro cash exchange rate increased today by 10 kopecks:
- up to 33.40-33.60 UAH / € – for sale;
- up to 32.95-33.10 UAH / € – for purchase.
