What will the dollar rate be by the end of the year in Ukraine? – bankers forecast

Most of the bankers interviewed by the media expect the hryvnia to weaken to 29 UAH per dollar by the end of the year.

The growth of the epidemic and the strengthening of the quarantine may lead to a weakening of the hryvnia to 29 UAH per dollar. This forecast was given by the bankers interviewed, reports on Friday, November 13, Interfax-Ukraine.

“The prospects for the spread of the epidemic and the strengthening of quarantine measures both in Ukraine and in trading partner countries are now a major factor of uncertainty. By the end of the year, an increase to 29 UAH / 1 dollar is not excluded, but with a view to whether or not strict quarantine will be introduced and what the economic consequences will be, “said Artem Krasovsky, head of the Treasury and Securities Department at Pravex-Bank.

According to him, the strengthening of the hryvnia in November was caused by the general fall of the dollar against most currencies in connection with the elections in the United States, as well as the presence of several large seller-exporters in the market and the wait-and-see attitude of buyers.

At the same time, Yaroslav Kabin, Director of the Treasury Department of Idea Bank, noted that the NBU remains an active player in the foreign exchange market, in particular, it has recently been actively buying the remaining supply in the market, preventing the rate exchange rate to strengthen further, therefore, expect a strengthening to the level of 28 UAH / dollar and less is not worth it.

The financier predicts in the coming weeks the exchange rate corridor at the level of UAH 28.10-28.50 per dollar and UAH 29 per dollar at the end of the year.

According to him, among the main factors behind the strengthening of the hryvnia after November 5, it can be highlighted the sale by exporters of foreign exchange earnings to pay income tax for the third quarter, as well as a decrease in the volume of foreign exchange purchases by large importers of energy and electronics due to a drop in demand in anticipation of the second wave of coronavirus. “, – says the message.

The director of macroeconomic analysis at Raiffeisen Bank Aval, Sergey Kolodiy, expects that by the end of the year the rate will be in the range of 28.5 to 29 UAH per dollar, and the average annual rate will be 26.8 UAH per dollar.

“We do not expect global changes: non-residents will continue to withdraw from government bonds, and companies and banks with foreign capital will pay deferred dividends for 2019; the price dynamics of the main export goods will continue to be favorable,” explained the expert, adding that the prospects locks remain high.

Recall that on the eve of the NBU the hryvnia weakened against the dollar by a couple of kopecks, setting the exchange rate of 100 dollars on Friday – 2819.63 hryvnia.

A recent survey has shown that Ukrainians trust hryvnia savings less and less.

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