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The classifications of the presidential party “Servant of the people” would no longer allow it to form a majority in the event of new elections to the Verkhovna Rada. Photo: president.gov.ua
The ratings of the authorities, although gradually, but still fall. The latest opinion poll conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) showed that the presidential party “Servant of the People” has lost more than 10% of support since the election of the Verkhovna Rada.
In such a situation, if early parliamentary elections were held in the near future, the “Servant of the People” could no longer form a mono majority.
What do these indicators mean from the point of view of rumors about possible early elections to the Rada? Country analysis.
Voters resign from the people’s servants
Of the five parliamentary parties now represented in the Ukrainian parliament, only four could be there again if early elections were held in Ukraine. According to the opinion poll of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, now 18.5% would vote for the party “Servant of the People”, 9% – for the party “Platform of Opposition – For Life”, 8.7% – for the party “European Solidarity”, 6.8% – for the party “Association of Ukraine” Homeland “.
Even if we recalculate these percentages, taking into account the electoral preferences of only those who decided, 32.6% would vote for the “Servant of the People” party, 15.8% – for the “Platform of Opposition – For Life” party, 15.2% – for Party “European Solidarity”, 12% – for the party “Association of all Ukraine” Homeland “. And” Voice “would have received only 3.5%.
Therefore, since the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, when the “Servant of the People” took 43%, the decrease was more than 10%. But the rest of the favorites of the rating indicators, on the contrary, increased. Since the election, the Oppoplatforms rating has grown by more than 2%, the Euro-solidarity rating is 7%, the Homeland rating is 4%.
And this means that the “Servant of the People” could no longer get enough votes in the parliamentary elections to form a mono majority.
Such arrangements provide an answer to the question about the possibilities of early parliamentary elections. According to the indicators in which an ally in the coalition would inevitably have to be found, for Zelensky it does not make sense.
“We are dealing with a trend of social disillusionment. In general, every fourth voter in Zelensky and the Servant of the People has already changed his mind. Most of the messages that went to the polls have not been implemented. This is a request for peace , the fight against corruption, sowing in the spring and so on. If this trend continues, in one year Zelensky’s party support range will be a maximum of 15-20%. This whole situation makes Zelensky a meaningless early election. Zelensky no longer has any motivation to change the parliament. In the new parliament, he will get far fewer seats. It is more likely that in the current Rada, the majority majority will completely crumble and then decide to form a new coalition , but this will be seen closer to the fall, “says Ruslan Bortnik, a political scientist.
“Yes, in general, it is not profitable for the president to dissolve parliament and lose control over him. Unless he already loses control over him. But I think that the dissolution or dissolution of the Rada does not depend on the president, but on the situation in the country. Here is a question that can be exploited at any time. There are already enough mines. Coronaviruses. Financial and economic crisis. Problems of war and peace. The situation in the regions. It would not be categorical that given the Simple majority is not possible, then there will be no early elections. Now unpredictability is complete and ruling out impossible impossible “- replied” Country “political analyst Vadim Karasev.
Furthermore, it cannot be ruled out that Zelensky himself will one day want to resign. By the same KIIS rating, Zelensky would have won 42.6% now (in the first round of the election a year ago, he received 30.24% of voter support).
That is, now his rating is even higher than in the first round. At the same time, Petro Poroshenko’s rating fell (14.9 vs. 15.9), Yuriy Boyko grew (12.2% vs. 11.67%), and Yulia Tymoshenko sank significantly (9.7 vs. 13.4).
These indicators mean that while their level of support allows any opponent to win the presidential election. But given the 60-70% support level, which was in the summer and fall of last year, a downward trend remains obvious.
“That’s when there will be a 20-25% rating, then they will start to force you to resign. Purely political science talking about early elections is one of the most sophisticated ways to make fun of any government or political body. And if the rating drops so low as possible, This is a trend not only in Ukraine but elsewhere. Imagine that even if Putin or Alexander Lukashenko himself downgraded the rating to 25%, then national and foreign political forces would do their best to guarantee it soon. “- said in a conversation with” country “sociologist Victor Nebozhenko.
In general, early parliamentary elections are now possible only in the event of early resignation of President Zelensky. In any other case, for the “servants” and the Ze team, they don’t make sense.
Fall exam
One of the most important tests of strength for the government of Vladimir Zelensky and his party will be the next local elections, which will be held on the last Sunday of October this year.
Sources of the “Country” in the Office of the President confirmed that local elections are planned to be held on time, and the headquarters of “Servants of the People” has already been created in all regions, which evaluate different candidates for mayors of key cities .
But despite all this stormy imitation of preparations for local elections, the presidential political force will not be in the best position, experts interviewed by Strana say.
The “local ratings on the Servant of the People” can be divided into two. At the local level, they vote for effective managers, and the presidential party’s strategy to promote new faces is not successful on the ground. If Ze is not convinced to abandon new faces and look for other recognizable and less tarnished representatives of the party in the regional elites, he will face an overwhelming failure. In turn, losing local elections will become an indicator that this is not a promising political force and has no future. It is a vicious circle and bet on the presidents cient here are very high “, – says Ruslan Bortnik.
Political analyst Vadim Karasev is convinced that most of the local authorities will not have a “majority of servants” of the people. According to him, the party in power in the fall will not be able to count on a repeat of last year’s victory.
“Local elites are already actively negotiating and joining the political forces that have a real chance of going to the Soviets. In each region, these are some kind of parties, including non-parliamentarians. But we can say with certainty that there are no” Servants of the People “determined on the ground perhaps. In general, the important thing about these classifications is that people begin to think of the category of a parliamentary-presidential republic. Zelensky could not prove to be a strong president. No one expects him to be Ukrainian Lukashenko That is, everything goes to the institute itself is pre identity in Ukraine will be weak and not omnipotent. And, therefore, power must be dispersed between the Verkhovna Rada and the Cabinet of Ministers, and most importantly, mayors and local councils that better understand the needs and interests of people in their regions. And local elections will confirm this. ” – explains Karasev.
In fact, the latest scandal with the management of the mayor of Cherkasy, who prematurely abolished the quarantine in his city, has already shown that Kiev’s influence in the regions is decreasing. Local authorities can no longer expect the center to continue financing social obligations, and spending on regional development has been reduced.
Therefore, they have less reason to follow public policies. So far only on quarantine restrictions, due to which riots are constantly increasing on the ground. But, this is just the beginning of the front.
“Yes, many mayors have not yet taken portraits of the young president. But Kiev has fewer bonds that they can offer to the regions. And fewer levers that you can push,” Nebozhenko believes. “If Conditional Avakov starts arresting the mayor of Cherkassy or anyone else for disobeying any issue, he will start jumping on the rooftops, there have already been examples, then he will cross the border and be guaranteed a qualification in the elections. Any politician in such Circumstances can invent his 96th quarter and secure a place for himself in the region at least “and the ease with which Zelensky gained power seduces, of course, many.”
Obviously, a drop in the ratings of the presidential political force will contribute to the growth of the influence of regional forces. Therefore, it has long been rumored that the mayors of large cities want to create their own party. You can find accusations in the media that he will form around Vitali Klitschko, but sources of “Country” in the local government deny it.
“The mayors of Kharkov and Odessa will not go for Klitschko. Yes, and many other cities. There is no love there. Now we can note the coordination of Trukhanov and Kernes, who already have their own” party of mayors “” Confidence in affairs ” Klitschko with his “Coup” Reviving will also participate in the elections. And Filatova, who is now taking steps to unite the mayors of the small towns and various regional centers that surround him. They may also coordinate activities with the mayor of Cherkasy, “a source told Stran.
