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The new month in the foreign exchange market began with a sharp rise in the price of the dollar: on November 2, its exchange rate in the interbank market rose 11.5 kopecks and consolidated within the limits of 28.6150-28, 6250 UAH / $. This is stronger than at the end of October, when the cashless exchange rate increased from 3 to 6 kopecks per day.
Prices in bank offices also rose. But the average cash rate of the “American” added only about 5 kopecks:
- up to UAH 28.65-28.75 / $ – on sale;
- up to 28.35-28.52 UAH / $ – for purchase.
At the same time, financiers in unison noticed the growing demand for currency from the population. They speak mainly of emotional purchases in the context of the latest news surrounding the confrontation between the Constitutional Court and President Zelensky, as well as before the presidential elections in the United States. But they say there are a lot of purchases and their volume is growing steadily.
Activity in the interbank market has grown significantly. The total amount of transactions at the end of the day increased almost 2.7 times: from Friday $ 112 million to more than $ 300 million.
“Foreigners were once again active in buying the dollar, and it was mainly the National Bank and the state banks that were selling, which, most likely, were trading in Naftogaz currency. The activity of our exporters decreased, who sell less dollars, while still digesting the payments of the State Treasury for VAT. There was a very large volume – up to UAH 10 billion “, – said financial analyst” Strana “Vasyl Nevmerzhitsky.
Banks also joined in buying currencies on the interbank market. Someone played with the difference in exchange rates and someone bought a dollar at the box office to resell it to the population.
“Speculators also joined in, for whom the red flag was the breakout of the 28.5 UAH / $ level. And the collapse of the British pound, the euro and, in principle, all European currencies (except the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona) in the context of the lockdowns was added to the mainstream news. ” , – said Andrey Shevchishin, the head of the Forex Club Group analysis department, to Strana.
Speculators have always been able to make money from the depreciation of the hryvnia, therefore they take advantage of this opportunity as soon as they see the right conditions. They took shape in October. But by the way, experts assure that the Ukrainian currency is not yet the weakest.
“Among the currencies of the former USSR, the hryvnia did not show the weakest result against the dollar in October. The weakest hryvnia was the Kyrgyz som (-2.7% per month), the Armenian dram (-1.1% ) and the Kazakh tenge (-0.7 If we talk about the dynamics since the beginning of the year, the hryvnia has decreased against the “American” by 16.7%. According to this indicator, it is “ahead” of the Russian ruble (- 22.0%) and the Belarusian ruble (-20.2%)., – calculated Alpari senior analyst Vadim Iosub.
Today, according to estimates by treasurers, the National Bank had to sell around 50 million dollars in the interbank market to contain the onslaught of foreigners and speculators. The regulator made deals at 28.61 UAH / $.
The dollar exchange rate rarely rises at the beginning of the month, usually during those periods there are few transactions due to the slowness of the business and the prices hardly move. Nevertheless, analysts admit active interbank trading tomorrow and a further rise in the price of the dollar. The level of 28.6250 UAH / $ is not considered the limit.
“Tomorrow we will definitely exceed this level. But it is difficult to say how much more we will go up. Maybe we will add 10 kopecks again. We will keep an eye on the actions of the National Bank and speculators. And of course the placement of new hryvnia government bond issues, so that the budget will be financed. deficit: It seems that 10 billion UAH of the refinancing recently allocated by the National Bank will go to the OVDP tomorrow. This is a hidden problem that supports the pressure on the hryvnia, “says Andriy Shevchyshyn.
The Ministry of Finance did not correct today’s request and has plans for tomorrow, November 3, to place three government bonds in hryvnia: 6 months, 12 months, 3 years. Experts expect officials to attract large sums of money taking into account current budget needs and a reduction in the fund balance in the single treasury account (CUT).
The State Treasury just reported today about a reduction in the amount of the TSA to 15.2 billion UAH: by a third in a month and more than three times compared to November 1, 2019.
Elections are less feared than COVID-19
The euro rate fell again on the world market: on November 2, it fell from $ 1.1645 / € to $ 1.1628 / € after the stock exchanges traded between $ 1.1623-1.1656 / € during the day.
COVID-19 continues to put pressure on the European currency and strengthened quarantine measures in the EU: in the UK, Germany, France, Austria, Italy. Investors believe that there will be a new wave of recession in the Old World.
In this context, investing in the dollar is considered less risky, even taking into account the presidential elections that will be held tomorrow in the United States.
“The dollar continues to benefit amid concerns about the region’s growth prospects,” MUFG currency analyst Lee Hardman told Reuters on the sentiment.
At the same time, experts do not exclude an active swing in the forex market tomorrow and after the vote in the United States.
“Given the likelihood that the presidential election result will be controversial on Wednesday and uncertainty may continue for some time, volatility could easily escalate and this could turn markets into a roller coaster,” UniCredit analysts predicted.
However, in Ukraine, the euro cash rate has grown by 5 kopecks due to the increase in the dollar price: the euro rate in our country is determined by multiplying the international euro / dollar rate by our hryvnia / dollar rate.
On the night of November 2, the European currency was launched:
- for 33.45-33.65 UAH / € – on sale
- for 32.90-33.15 UAH / € – for purchase.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that in the last days of October foreigners raised the dollar to new heights. For November, they forecast 28.9 UAH / $.
