[ad_1]
Photo: collage (RBC-Ukraine)
In the first three months of 2020, GDP fell just over 1%, but negative trends intensified
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in January-March 2020 decreased by 1.2%. This is stated in a review by the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Forecasting of the Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture.
The Ministry of Economy estimates the fall in GDP during the first two months of the year, that is, before the introduction of quarantine, at 0.2%.
me.gov.ua
As noted in the review, the coronavirus pandemic, which caused a shift in the development trends of the world economy, a significant drop in prices in world commodity markets (in particular, oil, gas and metals), Preventive measures both in Ukraine and in the countries of the main trading partners that were introduced In order to stop the spread of COVID-19 in the context of the influence of limiting factors formed in previous periods, will have negative consequences for the manufacturing sector, especially in the first half of 2020
According to the Ministry of Economy, in March, certain subspecies of production activity began to experience an initial negative impact of the worldwide distribution of COVID-19 (even due to logistical problems and a decrease in global demand for national industrial and agricultural products in the context of the fall in economic activity) and the introduction of quarantine measures to contain a pandemic in the center of the country (in particular, the prohibition of the transport of passengers by all means of transport and the operation of public catering services (restaurants, cafes), shopping and entertainment centers, other entertainment facilities, retail and consumer services (except for the food trade, etc.).
According to the results from January to March, the reduction in the composite index of production of goods and services by main types of economic activity (SIP) amounted to 3.8% (a decrease of 1.8% in January-February 2020).
me.gov.ua
“The negative effect of the pandemic in March was felt mainly by industries that depend on global demand (metallurgy and mechanical engineering). Whereas, on the contrary, pharmaceutical production and household chemicals increased due to higher demand” said the review.
Remember that the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) dramatically worsened the forecast for growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Ukraine in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. According to the NBU forecast, Ukraine’s economy will contract 5.0% in 2020, and recovery growth will reach 4.3% in 2021.
Note that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a drop in Ukraine’s GDP in 2020 by 7.7% in 2020 and a recovery growth of 3.6% in 2021. At the same time, the world economy will fall in 2020 by 3.0%.
