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September 28, 07:13
Everything indicates that this is not an accidental aggravation of the situation on the border, but a planned military action.
Hostilities began at dawn. While there is a lot of unclear in them. But both sides are already reporting civilian and military casualties. Everything indicates that it is not an accidental worsening of the situation on the border, but rather a planned military action. And, of course, it was planned by Baku, not Yerevan.
Armenia is now quite satisfied with the status quo with the occupation of a fifth of the territory of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is not happy with this situation. And here the people and the authorities of Azerbaijan are united. The long-standing territorial conflict must certainly be resolved and, in principle, such a solution is possible. But it requires goodwill, the consent of both parties to make substantial concessions. Now, sadly, both parties are not ready for such an arrangement. And, most importantly, the peoples are not prepared. Neither Armenian nor Azeri. And this lack of preparation will again and again lead to the death of people, until the parties agree to a compromise.
But the current conflict also has short-term causes. So far, it is impossible to say exactly what is the calculation behind it, or the alliance of Baku and Ankara to increase their quotas with a short victorious war and make Armenia a de facto protectorate of these two neighboring states, or, more likely , hand in hand with the Kremlin.
The first plan certainly makes Turkey and Azerbaijan irreconcilable enemies of Putin, who considers himself the owner of the post-Soviet space. There are Russian military bases in Armenia and Putin will not leave Armenia so easily.
It’s so easy for Putin to get out of Armenia
The second plan aligns with the Belarusian revolution and the assassination attempt on Alexei Navalny. The Kremlin is terrified of a repeat of the revolution in Russia. Also, there are already Khabarovsk, Shies and Kushtau.
Many people call the Armenian revolution of 2018 the predecessor of the Belarusian revolution. This is the next generation of Internet revolutions. I also. And so the Kremlin decided to provoke a government crisis in Yerevan with Azerbaijani aggression and instead of Nikol Pashinyan, appoint a man from Moscow to the head of Armenia and thus put an end to democratic Armenia. In exchange for Pashinyan’s departure, Moscow will offer its services to resolve the conflict and, if it goes far, provide military assistance. And then Armenia will become a protectorate not only Turkish, but Russian.
What can upset the first and second option plans now? Only courage, unanimity and willingness to make meaningful sacrifices of the Armenian people, only their support from the entire Diaspora.
But even if the attack is repelled and the Pashinian government resists, negotiations on the future of Karabakh / Artsakh should begin immediately.
Armenia will not be able to live with a revolver in its temple, and the road to the future Azerbaijani democracy passes through a real solution to the Karabakh problem, a solution that will not give cause for the rejoicing of either side, but will bring peace to the South Caucasus.
Text published with permission of the author
Original
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