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On September 10, there was a further increase in the non-monetary dollar exchange rate: it rose 1 kopeck and the interbank market closed at 27.84-27.86 UAH / $. But at the box office, cash prices increased further (surpassing the psychological mark of 28.0 UAH / $), by 5-7 kopecks:
- up to UAH 27.90-28.02 / $ – on sale;
- up to 27.60-27.75 UAH / $ – per purchase.
Financiers noted an increase in interest in the currency from the population and small businesses. Both in big cities and in the interior.
Speculators are immobilized
In the interbank market, the activity decreased a little: the total volume of transactions fell from $ 170 million to $ 130 million, but the National Bank supported it with all its might.
As soon as the regulator noticed a decrease in demand for currency in the morning, he immediately went out to buy the “American”. The trade bounced back instantly, as soon as the prices fell to UAH 27.83-27.84 / $, they did not drop to UAH 27.80 / $ or less. He put the ransom at 27.82 UAH / $ and, according to the estimates of the treasurers, acquired about 20 million dollars.
“Importers sank and did not take the dollar very actively today. Non-residents bought, but weakly, so there was no traction in the auctions. But as soon as necessary, the regulator took the initiative and replenished the reserves. of gold and currencies. Banks are not very active in buying dollars – currency positions are obstructed “, – explained to” Strana “the situation of financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
Due to the situation with currency positions, the hands of speculators are tied. After all, all participants in the interbank market must comply with the standards of the National Bank, that is, they can take foreign currency for no more than 10% of their capital. Few are at risk of breaking the standard. Therefore, if most of the active forex traders in the market have already collected the dollar in their reserves, then they simply do not have the physical capacity to buy it any more.
They say that the dollar rate is growing so slowly in the interbank market precisely because of the situation with the banks’ stuck foreign exchange positions. If it weren’t for the restrictions, the financiers would do it much faster.
These two issues were most actively discussed today: the efforts of the National Bank to keep the dollar rate higher and the restriction of speculators in the auction due to the nuances with their positions in foreign currency. Third was the rumor about increased demand from the state Ukreximbank in hryvnia.
“It has become more difficult to compete with Exim for resources: actively collecting hryvnia across the market. I am ready to make higher offers to clients at interest rates when a large investor comes in. Individual offers are made to companies and they say that they are very profitable. I do not think that the state bank has liquidity problems, but the resources, apparently, are necessary, possibly due to the intensification of the loans, which is felt on its part after the loan agreement with Ukravtodor, – he told Strana the treasury manager of one of the banks.
There was unofficial information that Ukreximbank Chairman Yevgeniy Metzger has stepped up negotiations with the government (shareholder) to increase capital by 10 billion UAH, which he has been actively lobbying since the beginning of the year. They say that an official decision on the capitalization of the state bank can be made from week to week.
Monetary policy news
The news of the day was the approval on September 10 by the Council of the National Bank of the Fundamentals of the monetary policy of the NBU for 2021. No one saw any sensation or surprise in it: the bankers said that NABU (Independent Association of Banks of Ukraine ) had sent the document through the banking system for a long time, and almost no modifications were made to it.
If you retell the three key principles from the document in plain language, the following will come out:
• As in previous years, maintaining financial and price stability will be at the forefront of Banco Nacional’s monetary policy. In other words, the first thing to do is keep inflation low. The only addition and clarification for 2021 is that maintaining inflation should not interfere with GDP growth. This is what the chairman of the NBU Council, Bogdan Danylyshyn, often argued with the former president of the National Bank Yakov Smoliy: that economic growth should be aimed at. To do this, you need to stop “sucking” the liquidity of the hryvnia and start saturating it with money, then the network will stimulate the issuance of hryvnia. In August 2020, the money supply in Ukraine increased by 28.7% (compared to August 2019) and it is possible that it will continue to grow.
• The Board of the National Bank did not change the old goal: inflation growth should not exceed 5% ± 1%. But from the tone of the national bankers, it is clear that if necessary and in a recession of the economy, these limits can be revised. Although this may not be necessary. After all, as you know, in Ukraine, statistical inflation (in reports) does not always coincide with real inflation in stores and payment systems. According to the latest report from the State Statistics Service, last month in our country deflation was recorded at 0.2%, that is, consumer prices fell by this amount. In annual terms (as of August 2019), inflation remains at 2.5%.
• Maintain a floating exchange rate of the hryvnia, without reference to any exchange corridor or border. That is, national banks will continue to declare in all corners that they do not protect the interests of anyone (exporters, government or someone else), and will do everything possible to ensure that the price of the Ukrainian currency is determined by the market. Everyone has been listening to these speeches for a long time. How it will really be clear depending on the current economic tasks of the current government. Everyone understands that while the NBU remains an active player and sometimes a leader in the interbank market, it will continue to directly influence the price of our national currency.
Today, the leaders of the National Bank added two more important points in words to the basic thesis of monetary policy raised in the document:
• If necessary, the BNU can start buying government bonds of the Ministry of Finance on the secondary market. That is, in the case of a critical budget deficit, the direct issuance of hryvnia is possible. Until now, the issue is through refinancing (loans) from banks and through the exchange market, when the regulator buys the dollar.
• However, the key priority will be the restoration of loans to the economy. That is, the rules and regulations that now restrict it will change.
State-owned banks are expected to find themselves in the wake of the credit market, followed by the commercial sector.
“The credit objective will affect all segments: corporate clients, small and medium-sized companies and the population. One of the key issues to boost credit is to increase the level of protection of creditors’ rights and reduce rates.
During the past time, we, for example, have lowered mortgage rates from 20% to 13.5% “, – Anton Tyutyun, vice chairman of the board of Oschadbank, commented on the situation to” Strana “.
What surprised and disappointed many financiers about the monetary policy announced for 2021 is the lack of such a goal as the fight against unemployment.
“The employment of the population is a very important problem, and it was now and before. For our country, especially if we remember the army of migrant workers, who regularly travel abroad to support their families. It is strange that economists overlook the solution to the problem, although that is precisely what gives economic growth: if it restores production and provides people with jobs with a salary that they can live on. This is an increase in industrial production and an increase in household spending, and an increase in the demand for housing, and an increase in paying taxes, and filling the budget. Mass of everything. the US Federal Reserve reached this conclusion and officially put it at the forefront of its policy, and we continue to think only about inflation targets, which the world has already assimilated and forgotten, “Vasily Nevmerzhitsky emphasized.
How will the dollar rate advance?
The slow appreciation of the dollar will not stop. Tomorrow, September 11, treasurers predict the opening of interbank trading in the range of UAH 27.85-27.88 / $, and expect a move of UAH 27.90-27.92 / $.
Financiers believe that the exchange rate will continue to rise even if there is no significant demand for the dollar. They almost doubt that the National Bank will re-enter the auctions with purchases and support the upward movement of the “American”.
The euro gets more expensive
The exchange rate of the euro on September 10 grew in the world market: from $ 1.1819 / € to 1.1859 / €. And the trading of the exchanges during the day was in the range of $ 1.1801- $ 1.1917 / €.
Investors were reassured by speeches by the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, after the meeting of the monetary policy regulator. As expected, the ECB kept its rate at zero. Fears of higher inflation forecasts did not materialize, they remained old. As well as the euro issuance plan, which they decided to keep at 1.35 billion euros.
What’s new: the ECB has improved its forecast for a decline in GDP in the euro zone for 2020, from 8.7% to 8%. But the forecast for 2021 (from 5.2% to 5%) and for 2022 (from 3.3% to 3.2%) worsened.
In Ukraine, the average euro cash rate increased today by 15-20 kopecks at a time:
- up to 32.95-33.20 UAH / € – on sale;
- up to 32.20-32.60 UAH / € – for purchase.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that on Thursday on the Ukrainian interbank market, the rate of the dollar approached 28 hryvnia.
We also report that the National Bank is ready to print more hryvnia to prevent the dollar from falling.
