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On September 17, the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market rose 8 kopecks and stood at 28.13-28.15 UAH / $. On the spot market, on the contrary, there was a downward correction: the average selling price of an “American” to people fell by 3 kopecks and entered the range of 28.20 to 28.30 UAH / $. And it did not change in the purchase: 27.90-28.05 UAH / $.
Bankers began to speak of a decrease in the demand for foreign exchange by the population.
But the cashless market was very active. Here the volume of transactions has grown from $ 113 million to $ 230 million. The National Bank was in the market all day, but, according to financiers, in a passive state.
“The NBU played the role of a ‘snake charmer.’ It set the dollar selling rate above the market: 28,1550 UAH / $, but it sold almost nothing. It just inspired speculators with ‘shock and awe’ at its mere presence. After all, the online regulator sees the size of the currency positions of all banks (their foreign reserves), which are almost full to the maximum. And when it puts those price tags, it does not have the task of filling the interbank with the dollar. And who needs it more expensive than in auctions? So, the NBU shows everyone that it is the highest mark (28.1550 UAH / $), the rate will not rise, therefore, it has sense that speculators take the currency in their containers. They will not be able to earn on resale. In addition, it makes sense to gradually reduce their positions – to sell the “American”, – commented in “Strana” new monetary policy of the regulatory director of the treasury of one of the main banks.
Agribusinesses stood out from the number of foreign exchange sellers, metallurgists sold less. And from buyers – importers, mainly energy, as well as foreigners.
“As before, non-residents are buying dollars to withdraw funds from government bonds and for dividends. They try to take the currency carefully so as not to shake up the market and getting the dollar they need is not very expensive. However, they remain key consumers. , which means that they are also key market makers. our interbank market “, – said financial analyst” Strana “Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
On September 17, the size of the hryvnia portfolio of non-resident government bonds decreased by 522.5 million ($ 18.6 million), and since the beginning of September – by 2.2 billion UAH. Its size is 83.2 billion UAH.
And on September 16, the Ministry of Finance paid a coupon (interest) on old securities for 318 million UAH. These funds could also be converted into dollars.
In the evening, the treasurers actively wondered how the situation in the interbank market could develop further. There were two versions: either the rate will continue to stagnate in the range of 28.13-28.15 UAH / $, or it will drop slightly: 28.07-28.12 UAH / $. They all said that the market will take a short break after the active rise in the dollar and there will be a correction. Financiers do not believe in the constant growth of currency prices. Although such a scenario is not ruled out in a week, when will the VAT refunds begin to be paid.
Only one force can break these predictions, the most unpredictable: foreigners. They can sell securities in a chaotic way and go to the interbank market to buy dollars.
Euro lost 15 kopecks
The euro exchange rate on the world market continues to fall gently: from $ 1.1837 / € to $ 1.1824 / €. During the day, the exchanges were moving between $ 1.1738-1.1827 / €.
They stopped buying the European currency, investors are sitting on the dollar. Today they liked the report of the Federal Reserve of the United States, which at the end of the September meeting kept its rates at the minimum level: 0-0.25%. And he made it clear that he may not change them until 2023. At the same time, the Fed improved its forecasts for GDP, unemployment and inflation in the United States for 2020.
“After the Fed meeting, a sense of disappointment hung over world markets. Investors apparently expected something more concrete than the relatively vague political outlook presented by President Powell … The stock market is going through tough times and the dollar is finding some support, “he said. Agence France-Presse sentiment analyst at IG Chris Beauchamp.
In Ukraine, the average cash exchange rate of the euro fell by between 10 and 15 kopecks at a time:
- on sale – up to 33.25-33.45 UAH / €;
- on the purchase – 32.70-33.0 UAH / €.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that the NBU scared the banks and they lowered the dollar rate slightly and realized what would happen next.
We also reported on how we raised the dollar rate, and the National Bank saved the situation at the last minute.
