The NBU has already estimated the losses from the confinement in January

The restrictions in January will cost Ukraine about 0.2% of GDP. But by the end of the year, the authorities expect growth of more than 4%.

Improved quarantine restrictions in January could cost Ukraine 0.2% of GDP. This preliminary evaluation was announced on Thursday December 10 by the deputy director of the National Bank Dmitry Sologub.

At the same time, the NBU estimates the impact of the weekend quarantine on GDP this year at 0.02 percentage points.

“We were expecting an impact of up to 0.2 percentage points on GDP somewhere. We can say that, most likely, it will be less,” Sologub said.

He also pointed to the deterioration in business expectations. According to him, this was more influenced by the expectation of quarantine, and not by the restrictions themselves.

“Business, people really didn’t understand exactly how the quarantine would be introduced,” Sologub said.

According to the Ministry of Economy, in October, the decline of the Ukrainian economy slowed to 5.2% from 5.5% the previous month.

The ministry expects that in the first quarter of next year, the fall in GDP will be 3%, but by year-end it is expected to grow to 4.6%.

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