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On December 17, the non-cash dollar rate fell by 2 kopecks and the interbank market closed within UAH 27.82-27.84 / $. The spot market continues to move in the other direction: rising prices. Average selling rates for a dollar for sale increased by 10 kopecks, and the following rates were posted at the box office:
- 28.0-28.15 UAH / $ – on sale;
- 27.65-27.80 UAH / $ – for purchase.
In the regions, they are buying currencies quite actively and the banks carry the dollar there in cash. Currency sales dominate in Kiev.
In the interbank market, the volume of operations has been actively decreasing for the second day in a row, today it has fallen by 27%. In general, the dynamics of transactions at Bloomberg are as follows:
- December 17: 163 million dollars;
- December 16: $ 224 million;
- December 15 – $ 336 million
“We arrive at the average trading volumes of the non-money market, since the payment of the national government bonds purchased from the Ministry of Finance has already been completed. The dollar is no longer sold under OVDP. And then the classic rule is included: how much The lower the market volume, the greater its volatility. Not even the largest buy / sell of the dollar is capable of shaking the exchange rate, “explained financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky to” Strana. “
The minimum price of a non-monetary dollar today was at the level of 27.80-27.82 UAH / $, and the maximum is 27.87 UAH / $. Many trades took place in the mid-range, which was set within the limits of UAH 27.27.85-27.86 / $. There was no National Bank in the auction.
“The wave of transactions in the market is diminishing. At low prices, speculators have become more active, and even export-import companies and non-residents are rushing to close positions at the end of the year and enter the dollar. Total volumes are not the same as before. And most importantly, there are no powerful currency sales. ” Andrey Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club Group analysis department, commented on the situation to “Strana”.
By the way, the National Bank today released its financial statements after a record auction on December 15, in which the Ministry of Finance sold the largest bundle of its government bonds in the entire history of Ukraine, for UAH 51.4 billion. And a very interesting discovery happened: it turned out that foreigners did not buy as many government bonds as everyone imagined.
The minimum forecast, which was UAH 5-6 billion, the maximum – up to UAH 10 billion. And in fact (according to the official report) it turned out to be much less – only 3.5 billion UAH.
As expected, banks became the largest buyers of the historic issue, because state banks reinvested the repayment that took place on December 16 (for 11.7 billion UAH) for a new period, and commercial banks received refinancing from the National Bank for 11 billion UAH. But also corporations (possibly NJSC Naftogaz, which previously took government bonds) and individuals became more active in buying government bonds.
If we calculate the growth of government bond portfolios in hryvnia this week, the following volumes will come out:
- banks: +24.9 billion hryvnias, up to 385.6 billion hryvnias;
- foreigners: +3.5 billion UAH, up to 79.7 billion UAH;
- legal entity: +1.97 billion UAH, up to 28.8 billion UAH;
- people: +441.6 million UAH, up to 2.8 billion UAH.
“It turned out that with their appearance in the interbank market, foreigners raised a powerful wave of sales in dollars, although they themselves did not sell the largest volumes under OVDP, a little more than $ 120 million. rates on government bonds and active non-residents also rushed to invest “, – said the vice chairman of the board of one of the banks in an interview with Strana.
The main question at this time is whether foreigners will shake the interbank currency market for a new placement of government bonds, which is scheduled for this Tuesday, December 22. The Ministry of Finance today presented a very ambitious preliminary request: 11 securities issues at a time. This is even more than it was during the historic placement; then 9 series of bonds were offered.
Two numbers of 11 are new in dollars (for 12 and 14 months) and nine in hryvnia. The choice of terms in the national currency is very wide: 3,4,7,12 months, as well as 1,5 years, 2,2 years, 3 years, 3,5 years, 5 years.
Financiers give different forecasts for this placement: from UAH 5-7 billion to UAH 20-25 billion. They say that foreigners will definitely take part in the roles, but they still don’t predict how significant it will be.
However, treasurers forecast a return to the depreciation of the dollar. Tomorrow, December 18, they expect the opening of the interbank market at 27.80-27.85 UAH / $, and a move of 27.80 UAH / $ and below.
The euro has risen in price due to the issuance of the dollar
On the world market, the euro continues to rise in price. On December 17, your rate increased from $ 1.2174 / € to $ 1.2266 / € after a change to $ 1.2190-1.2270 / €.
Investors were seriously alarmed by the statement by the US Federal Reserve that the regulator will continue to buy distressed assets for $ 120 billion to support the economy. Clearly this is a problem and does not appeal to traders. At the same time, the FRS will maintain the previous rates presumably in 2023: 0-0.25%.
In this context, today not only the euro, but also defensive assets such as gold rose in price: 2.06% (at $ 38.25), to $ 1,897.7 per troy ounce (31.1 grams).
In Ukraine, the euro cash exchange rate increased by 15 kopecks on sale and by 20 – on purchase:
- up to 34.10-34.30 UAH / € – on sale;
- up to 33.60-33.80 UAH / € – for purchase.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that the bitcoin rate broke the second all-time high in one day and immediately fell in price.
We also reported on how banks and the post office will work during the New Year holidays in Ukraine.
