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On November 17, the non-monetary dollar exchange rate rose 1 kopeck and the interbank market ended at 28.13-28.14 UAH / $. At the box office, average prices have not changed:
• up to UAH 28.25-28.45 / $ – on sale;
• up to 28.0-28.10 UAH / $ – for purchase.
Bankers noticed a slight increase in the demand for foreign exchange by the population, but they did not increase rates.
“The exchange rate in the exchange offices is significantly higher than the interbank market, the spreads are wide. This indicates uncertainty in the movement,” Andrei Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club analysis department, explained to Strana the situation.
A strange situation has developed in the interbank market. There is no significant increase in foreign exchange sales volume for the tax period, although the deadline for paying quarterly corporate income tax, rent, and other fees is November 19. The total amount of transactions has grown slightly from yesterday’s low of $ 67 million to $ 108 million, but it is still not enough. The average volume of transactions for our market since the start of the quarantine is $ 120-150 million, but the market does not even reach it. Not to mention the expected growth in foreign currency sales for the tax period.
At that time, the trading volume in the interbank market can reach $ 300-400 million, but now it doesn’t even smell like that. The treasurers speak of a smooth increase in sales, but not much activity.
“Perhaps the big exporters are not in a hurry to act, expecting a small upward movement. Sellers may become more active if the coin goes up a bit. So far we do not see large volumes of foreign exchange sales against quarterly tax payments. August (for the second quarter), interbank quotes fell to the level of 27.20 UAH / $, only from this value there was a correction. Now the cashless market has not yet entered the stage of active currency sales “, – commented the treasurer about the situation on the market to Strana, Yuriy Grinenko, Head of Business Operations in the Interbank Market of Credit Dnepr Bank.
At first, there was a version that participants in the foreign exchange market were waiting for deals due to the lengthy negotiations between Ukraine and the IMF. However, it was quickly refuted.
“I don’t think this has affected. There is an understanding that the IMF will not receive a loan until the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. At least, there are no preconditions, we start from current realities. And it is unlikely that our budget for 2021 be IMF I like it, “said Andrey Shevchishin.
Interestingly, given the current ambiguous situation in the interbank market, the hryvnia exchange rate today could well have strengthened. Non-cash prices fell to UAH 28.08-28.09 / $ due to a small demand for foreign exchange. However, according to Strana sources, Alfa-Bank made a large dollar purchase: $ 35 million, and the dollar rallied.
The treasurers believe that the bank bought the dollar to buy national government bonds denominated in the US currency, which the Finance Ministry placed today. Sold an issue of stock currency and two hryvnia:
• for $ 75.9 million – 1.5 years in dollars at 3.77% per annum;
• for UAH 298.6 million – 12-month hryvnia at 10.5%;
• for 75.3 million UAH – 3-year hryvnia at 11.1% per annum.
In total, the budget attracted 2.5 billion UAH, that is, not much. Although experts expected a large placement, at the same time for UAH 10-12 billion.
“If there were no major dollar purchases under OVDP, then I think the interbank market would have fallen below UAH / $ 28.09. We definitely would not have seen a rally to the upside,” said financial analyst Vasyl Nevmerzhitsky.
By the way, the Ministry of Finance raised almost the entire dollar offered by banks, rejecting only two offers for the purchase of government bonds in foreign currency. Officials submitted many more requests for three-year hryvnia securities, worth UAH 421 million, for which banks asked to increase the rate to 11.5% per year. However, the Finance Ministry refused, setting the yield at 11.10%. This is slightly more than the previous price (10.95%), which officials were not willing to raise dramatically.
“The situation is funny. As they say, it is approaching midnight, but the German is still gone. Solid questions. Where are the non-residents who leave the OVDP, but do not enter the market for the dollar? Where is the refinancing? After all, the rates on OVDP have risen, and already three years ago there are more than 11%. Nothing is clear “, – Andrey Shevchishin described the mood.
However, the treasurers persistently continue to predict the strengthening of the hryvnia in the near future. Tomorrow, November 18, the opening of the interbank market is expected in the range of 28.12-28.15 UAH / $, but then they expect an increase in foreign exchange sales and a cheaper dollar.
The euro is getting more expensive on all fronts
The exchange rate of the euro on the world market today has grown from $ 1.1843 / € to $ 1.1867 / € after it moved on the stock exchanges in the range of $ 1.1843-1.1884 / €.
Investors continue to absorb the negative statistics about the increase in the incidence of the coronavirus in the United States.
“Political uncertainty after the US presidential election contributes to the fall of the US currency. The dollar will not rise until the hurdles (negative statistics on COVID-19 and political uncertainty) are removed,” Masafumi Yamamoto quoted Reuters as saying, senior currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.
Now traders prefer the euro and buy this currency.
In Ukraine, the euro cash rate increased by an average of 5-10 kopecks:
• up to 33.50-33.70 UAH / € – for sale
• up to 32.90-33.15 UAH / € – for purchase.
