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The new year 2021 began in the interbank market with an increase in the price of the dollar by 11 kopecks: on January 4, the cashless market closed at 28.44-28.46 UAH / $. At the box office, prices also increased, but not so significantly: at 5 kopecks, as a result, the average cash rates were in the following ranges:
- UAH 28.45-28.60 / $ – on sale;
- 28.10-28.25 UAH / $ – for purchase.
Bankers speak of an increase in demand for foreign exchange by representatives of small businesses, mainly in the regions.
The first cashless trade of the new year turned out to be low volume: about $ 76 million on the Bloomberg site (down from $ 115 million on December 30, 2020), which is normal for that period.
The market opened wide: 28.30-28.40 UAH / $, and under the pressure of demand it rose to 28.45-28.47 UAH / $, and could only correct thanks to the support of the Bank National.
The NBU sold about $ 20 million on January 4 at UAH 28.45 / $.
“Price swing is a common phenomenon for low liquidity trades. The volume of transactions is very small at the beginning of the year and therefore even a small buy / sell can change the rate in either direction. So Therefore, we will not see new trends in the period between holidays, “he commented on the situation to Strana. financial expert Vladislav Kravets.
Treasurers noted weak currency sales by exporters and intensification of dollar purchases by state and retail banks. Basically, operators of large supermarkets, which made payments for import purchases. They also reported on ongoing purchases of foreign currency by contractor companies that received budget payments for works completed in 2020.
“In general, the low activity of all participants was felt in the interbank market. But in general, there were more buyers of dollars than sellers. Therefore, they dominated the market,” Andrey Shevchishin, head of the analytics department, told Strana of Forex Club.
Usually on Mondays, financiers make forecasts on purchases by foreigners of new issues of hryvnia bonds from the national government loan and on the plant for them the dollar. But not today. Experts trust that non-residents will not participate in the auction of the Ministry of Finance on January 5 tomorrow. In it, officials will offer 4 issues of government bonds: for 3 months, as well as for 1, 2 and 3.5 years.
“At best, our state banks will go out and buy government bonds. Not foreign,” Shevchishin said.
But there is no doubt that the government will try to borrow more. In fact, although in December it was actively increasing the national debt (it issued government bonds for 115.8 billion UAH), it has already spent most of the funds. At the beginning of January, he had little left: the fund balance in the single treasury account amounted to just UAH 12 billion, which is 40% less than the December figure and 30% less than January 2020.
Foreigners are expected to trigger government bond purchases only after the end of the Christmas holidays in Europe and the US Also, subject to the maintenance of high rates of hryvnia government bonds – 11-12% per annum.
Incidentally, Bank of America analysts recently predicted very active purchases of our government bonds by non-residents (an increase in their portfolio from $ 2.6 billion to $ 5 billion), provided Ukraine maintains good relations with the IMF and, as a result, a strong strengthening of the hryvnia. Just up to 26-26.5 UAH / $.
“This scenario is very likely. Those sales in dollars cannot be covered by current demand. But the National Bank said it wants to maintain and increase its gold and foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, it will buy the surplus of currency. Is it a strengthening the profitable hryvnia for Ukraine? I think not. And the reverse movement of capital will lead to the devaluation of the Ukrainian currency. No one needs such a change, “believes Andriy Shevchishin.
However, this week the hryvnia is in no danger of strengthening. Tomorrow, January 5, treasurers expect the opening of the interbank market in the range of 28.45-28.48 UAH / $. Exporters can pull the rate by 28.50 UAH / $, and the National Bank can sell the dollar from its reserves so that prices do not rise.
“At the same time, the dollar in cash in banks can be traded around 28.3-28.5 UAH / $,” said Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari.
Maximum to 35.80 UAH / €
The first currency day of 2021 on the world market started with a slight depreciation of the euro. From $ 1.2288 / € to $ 1.2256 / €, although during the day the prices were tremendously high, moving in the range of $ 1.2221-1.2309 / €.
Interest in the European currency was stimulated by the December report on the growth of the euro area industry PMI index from 53.8 points to 55.2, the highest since May 2018. At the same time, enthusiasm for a more substantial rise in the price of the euro was not enough. Due to the New Year and Christmas period, there is weak activity in Western markets, such as in our country.
At the same time, in Ukraine, the average cash rate of the EU single currency sets new records due to the increase in the price of the dollar (the euro rate is considered to be the multiplication of the hryvnia / dollar rate by the euro rate / dollar). Since last week, it jumped at once for 20-25 kopecks and reached:
- up to 34.90-35.15 UAH / € – on sale;
- up to 34.10-34.40 UAH / € – for purchase.
At the same time, the maximum selling price to individuals reached 35.80 UAH / €, which was set today by Raiffeisen Bank Aval on its boxes.
Earlier, Strana wrote that in late 2020 Ukraine received a one-third-billion-dollar loan from Deutsche Bank.
We also report that Bitcoin fell dramatically by $ 5,000.
