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On Friday, April 2, the dollar rose sharply on the interbank market: its rate rose 17 kopecks and stopped at 28.02-28.04 UAH / $. At the box office, prices rose 15 kopecks on sale and 10 kopecks on purchase:
- up to UAH 27.95-28.15 / $ – on sale;
- up to 27.70-27.90 UAH / $ – for purchase.
Bankers reported that people started buying dollars more frequently at branches and even more actively through mobile apps and internet banking systems. Although they assured that the increase in demand has not yet become a hurry.
The cashless market experienced a rapid increase in activity. Trading volume on the Bloomberg platform jumped from $ 134 million to $ 186 million, while the National Bank had to go into business and sell $ 50 million to support the hryvnia.
“It started. We were afraid of this, but it happened. In a thin market with low turnover, the hryvnia took a heavy hit,” Andrey Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club analysis department, described his impression of today’s trading. to the Strana.
The treasurers’ choir praised the National Bank for the fact that it came out on time with the sale of the dollar and sold it at 27.98 UAH / $. In total, the regulator sold $ 50 million, which slowed the rise in the price of the US currency and made it insignificant. Currency traders believe that without the NBU, the “American” could fly up to 28.2-28.30 hryvnyas / $.
The shortage of the dollar began to be felt from the same morning: cashless operations started from UAH 27.85-27.88 / $, and within an hour the prices flew to UAH 27.945-27.975 / $. And half an hour later, the National Bank came out with the sale of currency and offered it at 28.98 UAH / $. The $ 50 million offered by the regulator sold out fairly quickly, but it was not enough to cover all the demand. However, after lunch, the NBU did not appear at the auction.
The bankers said several other sellers came out in their stead (perhaps at the suggestion of the regulator), who gradually added currency to the market. But the task was not to completely fill the interbank market. The shortage of the dollar was noticed, so speculators took advantage of it, raising prices. After lunch, they reached UAH 28.05 / $. However, overnight, the interbank market corrected at UAH 28.02-28.04 / $.
“If tomorrow is war”
The tension in the interbank market was felt from the same morning due to the reduction of foreign currency sales by Ukrainian companies. It is explained by the holidays that began in Europe on the occasion of Catholic Easter, where today is celebrated on Good Friday. Business in the EU did not work and they did not transfer money for Ukrainian exports. Therefore, in the morning there was less currency for sale.
And after the prices began to grow, even those who had a dollar, began to openly cling to it. There was no point in rushing to sell the “American”, the price of which had been marked all day.
It rose due to the growing demand, which was explained by the coincidence of three factors at the same time.
The first: negative reaction of the financial market to the worsening of the military situation in eastern Ukraine and the statements of politicians in this regard. There was general tension in the interbank market and, most importantly, purchases of dollars by foreigners intensified. Sources from “Strana” reported that non-residents sold medium-term Hryvnia government bonds for 1 billion UAH on the secondary market. And then they went to the interbank market with the purchase of a dollar to take that money home. Citibank was the most active buyer of the dollar.
“Foreigners fled the Ukrainian market. There was no panic, but the words” if there is war tomorrow “have already been heard. War is a very serious risk for any investor. It is even better to lose without withdrawing capital from the country than to keep this risk in the balance. At home they still have to build additional reserves. They do not need them. Therefore, the OVDP began to be sold and I think they will continue to do so. Also, in the most calm and measured way possible, so as not to inflate discounts in our values and lose less. Of course, not everyone will leave, many foreigners will stay if the politicians and military quickly stabilize the situation at the front and come out to solve the problem. ” of the banks.
Second: in the interbank market there was talk of the intensification of foreign currency purchases by the state Ukreximbank. According to rumors, the dollar was bought to pay for a new batch of coronavirus vaccines. Payment had to be made promptly, so they were in a rush to buy non-cash currency.
Third: purchase of currencies for the withdrawal of dividends. This is a familiar story at the beginning of each month, but this time it overlapped the general increase in demand for foreign exchange.
“We are talking about quarterly dividends, that is, their volumes are higher. Based on the general growth in demand, this stimulated the growth of dollar prices,” financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky told Strana.
The treasurers pointed out that foreigners accelerated the purchase of the dollar in the face of the withdrawal of dividends due to the rising prices and the general nervousness in the market associated with the deterioration of the political-military situation in Ukraine.
“Non-residents can invest in bonds from other more reliable countries, where rates are now growing. Therefore, given the failure of vaccines in Ukraine and the growing risk of military escalation, they will go as far as the market is sufficient. for them”. . Our business and the population can also join this. Saving. After all, all this is also accompanied by inflation “, – commented Andrey Shevchishin.
Much will depend on the development of the situation in eastern Ukraine, as well as the actions and agreements of politicians. If they cannot calm the situation and convince the population that the political-military worsening will not result in a deterioration in the state of the exchange market and the economy, then people will start buying dollars more actively. Which will affect the course very quickly. After all, to buy currency, people now don’t even need to leave their homes: they just need to press a few buttons in their smartphone banking apps.
The companies will also closely follow the development of the events. If they go in a negative direction, then companies will start buying the dollar for future use in order to pay for foreign economic contracts in advance, until the “American” price has risen further in price.
“Business can get into an unpleasant situation. We expected a seasonal strengthening of the hryvnia or even stability and postponed the purchase of foreign currency. If it is understood that the rate will not go down and even, on the contrary, there are risks of devaluation, the Dollar purchases will go away. At first a little bit, but as the hryvnia weakens, they will grow, “Shevchishin said.
What will happen to the dollar exchange rate?
If the politico-military situation in Ukraine does not stabilize, from Monday foreigners will continue to sell government bonds hryvnia, and then buy the dollar.
“I don’t think there will be a total sale of large stakes in our government bonds. Of course, someone might want to leave the market. But the major players understand that if they launch large-scale sales of government bonds, they will lose a lot. with discounts. I don’t think they need losses. Therefore, everything will be in moderation, “financial expert Vladislav Kravets assured” Strana. “
But even with the best deal with the withdrawal of foreign capital from the OVDPs, the dividend withdrawal will continue as of Monday. Therefore, treasurers predict an increase in demand for the coin. The interbank market is expected to open on April 5 in the range of 28.02-28.07 UAH / $ and is allowed to move at 28.1 UAH / $ or even higher. Much will depend on the support of the National Bank and its price per dollar.
The euro loses against the dollar
The euro exchange rate on the world market fell from $ 1.1772 / € to $ 1.1763 / € on Friday after trading $ 1.1749-1.1786 / €.
This is explained by two factors. First, Good Friday in Europe and inactive businesses and markets, which reduced the demand for the euro for an objective reason. Second, a positive report from the US on the decline in unemployment in March from 6.2% to 6%. This was in line with forecasts, because traders were more likely to sell euros and buy dollars.
In addition, the world continues to talk about the prospects for the US economy after the anti-crisis measures of the new White House administration. Most experts are confident that the US economy will recover faster than in Europe.
“Until the rest of the world catches up with the United States, this will continue to be positive for the dollar,” Pantheon analyst Ian Shepherdson told the Wall Street Journal.
However, due to the rise of the dollar on the interbank market, the euro cash rate in Ukraine today increased by 30 kopecks for sale and 20 for purchase (in our country, the euro rate is determined by multiplying the hryvnia / dollar for the dollar / euro exchange rate):
- up to 32.90-33.20 UAH / € – for sale;
- up to 32.50-32.70 UAH / € – for purchase.
