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On February 10, the non-monetary dollar exchange rate immediately rose by 18.5 kopecks and the interbank market reached 27.88-27.90 UAH / $.
This caused a rise in box office prices. The average dollar exchange rate on cash when selling to people immediately increased by 20 kopecks, and when buying – by 15. Prices were in the following ranges:
- UAH 27.90-28.10 / $ – on sale;
- 27.60-27.80 UAH / $ – for purchase.
People started buying currencies a little more actively, but financiers have yet to notice the excitement.
The active purchase of the “American” was carried out today on the interbank market, although the total volume of operations remained almost at the level of yesterday: it amounted to $ 175 million in the Bloomberg system.
The appreciation of the currency started in the morning: even before noon, prices rose from 27.70-27.74 UAH / $ to 27.75-27.77 UAH / $, and after lunch they rose to 27.81 -27.86 UAH / $. The final jump in the exchange rate occurred at night with low trading volume.
“This is a correction after a fast and strong strengthening of the hryvnia. I thought we would go back to UAH 27.90-28.0 / $ to check if this level is really not interesting for the market,” said the head of the analysis department. commented on the situation at the Forex Club Group auction Andrey Shevchishin.
Two things happened simultaneously:
- decrease in foreign currency sales by foreigners;
- the demand for foreign exchange has grown, which is still called situational.
“Non-residents, who bring a dollar to Ukraine to buy hryvnia bonds from the national state loan (yesterday they were placed for 13.1 billion UAH), stained their foreign exchange sales for a whole week. They no longer organize currency falls in two days. – Tuesday and Wednesday. Therefore, today they did not sell the dollar very actively, not because they did not sell it in principle, but because they made their sales on other days. In total, about $ 150 million was brought to Ukraine for the placement of OVDP, but today they are almost gone. that the demand for the currency was and the market felt a reduction in supply, there was a current increase in the exchange rate. Banks and importers began to take more currency, “analyst financier Vasily Nevmerzhitsky told Strana.
The state-owned Ukreximbank was the most prominent among the dollar buyers. It has been collecting currency in the interbank market for several days, it started last week. But, according to the treasurers, today he reached the peak of his acquisitions: he bought about $ 60 million.
Bankers long wondered for whom Ukreximbank systematically bought the dollar, and at lunchtime the first unofficial information on this matter appeared. They say that it is purchased on behalf of the Ministry of Health (its importing company), and the currency is needed to pay for the imported vaccine. Financiers don’t know which one.
According to some estimates, Ukreximbank has bought about $ 100-120 million for the Ministry of Health in a few days, according to others, $ 180-200 million. There is no official data on this account.
“I am convinced that the National Bank was aware of this need for foreign exchange from the Ministry of Health and, in a friendly way, could give Ukreximbank its place in the interbank market. After all, yesterday and the day before yesterday, the NBU was buying the dollar while the Foreigners were actively selling it and letting Exim skimp on such an important task as vaccinating the population. However, the regulator decided not to do so. Or they continue to promote their general idea that there should be no preferences for anyone. be performed on the publicly open market, even taking into account the fact that the Ministry of Health will lose in the course and the budget will have to pay more hryvnia for vaccines. in the exchange rate difference, “said the” Strana “vice president of the board of one of the main banks.
The treasurers interviewed by “Strana” are sure that tomorrow, February 11, the interbank will open with an increase in the dollar rate to 27.90-27.95 UAH / $, and then a rise of 28.0 is expected UAH / $.
“Tomorrow we will see how many sellers will join the dollar sales when the move is UAH / $ 28. If there is enough, then the rate will pull back and analysts will say that we are on a new trading horizon: UAH / $ 27.5-28. Non-residents are connected, but at the bottom there is enough demand to pull the price of the dollar, while sellers are not yet ready to sell that cheap, “summarized Andrey Shevchishin.
The world buys the euro again
The euro exchange rate on the world market is growing for the third day in a row: from $ 1.2103 / € to $ 1.2134 / € after moving in the range of $ 1.2109-1.2144 / €.
There was no major economic news from Europe to support the appreciation of its currency. But traders did not like the US inflation report: they registered a rise in consumer prices in January of 1.4% in annual terms and 0.3% in monthly terms.
This is in line with the preliminary forecasts of the analysts, but the market does not like it, where, probably, new and wonderful advances were expected. So they decided to sell the dollar and buy the euro for a while.
Investors are eager to hear more reassuring speeches from the United States on maintaining soft monetary policy for 2021. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak tomorrow and will most likely confirm. He is also expected to pass a program to rescue the US economy at $ 1.9 trillion.
“The dollar may continue to fall even if Powell confirms the markets’ expectations of maintaining a soft monetary policy,” MUFG Bank analysts told the Wall Street Journal. Therefore, tomorrow’s forex trading promises to be unpredictable.
In Ukraine, the euro in cash has risen in price by 30 kopecks today:
- up to 33.80-34.0 UAH / € – for sale;
- up to 33.30-33.50 UAH / € – for purchase.
