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The new week in the interbank market began with a sharp rise in the price of the dollar: on December 21, its rate jumped by 18 kopecks at a time and the price ended at 28.15-28.22 UAH / $. The lockers reacted to this with lightning speed, and even with a margin.
The average cash rate of the US currency increased by 20 kopecks for sale and by 10 kopecks for redemption. As a result, the prices ended up in the following ranges:
- UAH 28.20-28.40 / $ – on sale;
- 27.80-27.95 UAH / $ – for purchase.
The population’s demand for currency was called average.
Currency sales are consistently declining on the interbank market: today the trading volume has decreased from $ 160 million to $ 133 million. There was no National Bank in the auction.
On Friday, treasurers predicted the activation of foreigners, hoping that they would more actively sell the dollar to buy national government bonds tomorrow. However, it does not happened.
But the Ukrainian company made itself felt, that it received budget payments, which were postponed due to the budget deficit. After the record placement of OVDP last week (for UAH 51.4 billion), the Ministry of Finance began to actively transfer funds to companies and they began to buy dollars more often.
“This was predicted before, and it happened. The rate of receipt of funds and the volume of purchases in dollars will be different. It is clear that the rate of movement of the hryvnia will depend on them,” Andrey Shevchishin, head of the department of Forex Club analysis.
The business also earned hryvnia after today’s payment by the State Treasury under the VAT refund: on December 21, the companies were transferred 457.3 million UAH.
Two things happened at the same time: the volume of dollar sold did not grow, but the demand increased.
“An additional supply of foreign exchange from non-residents was expected, but did not appear. Perhaps due to negative news about the coronavirus around the world, and due to a new wave of morbidity. At the same time, the hryvnia began to rise. flow from the budget to the companies, and they went to buy foreign currency. ” to close deals at the end of the year, “financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky told Strana about the situation.
Financiers actively discussed a new wave of infection in the world.
“Yes, the mutation of the coronavirus and the blockade of Great Britain, one of the largest players in world finance, could have corresponding consequences for global activity,” confirmed Andrey Shevchishin.
Will foreigners go tomorrow to buy our government bonds at least a little in the context of increasing tension in the world is the main question for the currency market? In spite of everything, the treasurers do not exclude this possibility. On Tuesday, the placement of government bonds for UAH 20-25 billion is expected, give the following breakdown:
- UAH 10 billion – state banks;
- 10 billion UAH: commercial banks;
- 4-5 billion UAH – foreigners.
It will be known very soon if these expectations will come true. But it is known that banks have already charged the hryvnia for purchases: last Friday, December 18, the National Bank provided a new portion of its refinancing, for UAH 9.3 billion. Almost everything can go to government bonds.
The Ministry of Finance has reviewed the bid for today’s auction. I decided to place tomorrow not 11 series of OVDP, but 10: I rejected an issue in dollars. But this will definitely not affect the interbank currency market, which reacts to hryvnia placements.
Tomorrow, December 22, treasurers expect the opening of the interbank market in the range of 28.18-28.24 UAH / $. If foreigners still dare to buy part of our government bonds and start selling the dollar against them, then a move of 28.10-28.15 hryvnias / $ is allowed. But, if this does not happen, the cashless market can be traded at 28.20-28.25 UAH / $.
The virus mutation damaged the euro
In today’s world market, the demand for the euro has decreased and the rate of the single currency plunged from $ 1.2235 / € to $ 1.2214 / € after moving between $ 1.2130-1.2237 / €.
Due to the news about the discovery in the United Kingdom of a new mutation of the coronavirus (it may be 70% earlier than the previous strain) and the suspension of flights with this country, investors took less European currency and more dollars. “American” is considered a safe haven currency.
“The new version of the virus has caused a return of uncertainty in the market and we see risk aversion. Although in such cases gold should rise in price, in general we see that the dollar is attracting attention,” Xiao Fu told Reuters , an analyst at Bank of China International.
But in Ukraine, the euro cash exchange rate increased: by 11 kopecks on sale and immediately by 25, when exchanging:
- up to 34.45-34.61 UAH / € – for sale;
- up to 33.90-34.15 UAH / € – for purchase.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that the National Bank has inflated the dollar for the sake of foreigners who buy government bonds.
We also report that Russia has allocated a loan of one billion dollars for Belarus.
