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On September 9, the price of the dollar on the interbank market totaled 4 kopecks and the price closed at 27.84-27.85 UAH / $. Average prices in cash at bank tellers did not change:
- UAH 27.85-27.95 / $ – on sale;
- 27.55-27.70 UAH / $ – for purchase.
But the maximum rate in exchange offices reached 28.0 UAH / $, it was set by various banks: “FUIB”, “Pivdenny”, “A-Bank” and others. Although everyone understands that this is not the limit in the conditions of the planned growth of the interbank market.
Activity in the cashless market has grown: Total transaction volume increased from $ 100 million yesterday to $ 170 million. As the treasurers said, largely because of Ukrgasbank, which today stood out from the general mass of currency sellers: it may have sold the proceeds to Naftogaz.
Foreigners were named among the top buyers of the dollar, who need currency to withdraw dividends as well as to extract capital from government bonds, which they continue to sell. Today, its portfolio of government hryvnia bonds decreased by 316.9 million UAH and, since the beginning of September, by 1.04 billion UAH (to 84.3 billion UAH). The Ministry of Finance also paid a coupon (interest) on old securities.
Oschadbank also distinguished itself by the number of currency buyers.
“There was no National Bank in the auctions, there was no need for it to appear. The Interbank independently balanced and continued the systematic increase in the dollar exchange rate. Everyone understands that the market is going to 28.0 UAH / $ , so nobody is surprised by the growth of the exchange rate. ” calm pace, which suits the majority, “- financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky commented on the mood of” Strana. “
Bankers expect this trend to continue tomorrow. On September 10 the start of the interbank market is expected in the framework of UAH 27.83-27.88 / $, with an expected movement of UAH 27.90 / $.
Today, the Finance Ministry has paid interest on hryvnia government bonds for UAH 707 million. Part of this amount can be converted into currency.
The euro may fall as the US recovers
The euro began to recover after several days of decline in the world market. On September 9, it went from $ 1.1796 / € to $ 1.1819 / €, and during the day the exchanges moved in the range of $ 1.1753-1.1834 / €.
On the one hand, investors are preparing for a meeting of the European Central Bank and expect new forecasts of inflation and their monetary policy from it. The ECB is known to be very unhappy with the excessively strong exchange rate of its currency (European exporters are losing sales due to high prices) and are willing to lower it. On the other hand, they continue to discuss the collapse of the US stock market, which began last week due to the fall in the prices of the shares of high-tech companies.
Many believe in the depreciation of the euro, regulated by the ECB.
“European countries really need some kind of economic assistance from the central bank that will weaken the euro against the dollar,” independent analyst Ross Norman told Reuters.
After several days of decline, the US stock market today began to recover at the opening of the price:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.71% (27,719 points);
- NASDAQ – at 1.51% (11,228 points);
- S&P 500 – by 1.02% (3,369.62 points).
However, the recent recession has spurred speculation about the link between the stock market and the real economy.
“Despite inflation and multiple growth of the nominal US economy, the US stock market has been marking time for 15 years. But before that, until 1966, the stock market It had grown almost continuously since the end of World War II. In comparison, the nominal GDP of the US in 1949 year was $ 273 billion, and the Dow index was 175 points, that is , every $ 1 billion of US GDP was estimated at just 0.64 points of the value of the Dow Jones index, “said Mikhail Fedorov, an analyst at investment group Univer.
He calculated that at its current peak, the Dow Jones is worth 28,300 points and US GDP in 2019 was $ 21.5 trillion. It turns out that $ 1 billion = 1.3 Dow index points, about the same as in distant 1966.
“The American stock market in recent years, as then, has grown, exceeding the real indicators of the economy. This time, perhaps, everything will be different, but it can be repeated. And if it is repeated, then 2021 can become a analogous to 1966, when inflation will straighten out and the US stock market will peak, after which the US market will stagnate for a long time, waiting for the real economy to catch up and do so. exceeds. And the value of a billion dollars in US GDP will fall below 1 point Dow Jones “, – predicted Fedorov.
Today in Ukraine, the average exchange rate of the euro in cash has not changed:
- for sale – 32.90-33.05 UAH / €;
- on the purchase – 32.40-32.60 UAH / €.
