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A ceasefire in Donbas is threatened after the TCG meeting on September 16. Photo from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
At yesterday’s Trilateral Contact Group meeting, the parties took a big step back from the ceasefire, which has been going on in Donbas for a month and a half.
Protocol No. 13 of the TCG establishes that Ukraine withdrew from the ceasefire measures that determined the armistice mechanism.
However, following Kiev’s refusal to carry out an inspection at Shumy (this option was included in “Measures”), the parties considered that Ukraine had rejected the agreement. And now they need to reconnect.
“Strana” understood this situation.
How the armistice agreements were broken
The Strana has at its disposal the minutes of the meeting of the Minsk Contact Group on 16 September.
This meeting is interesting because it took place after the Berlin meeting between Andrey Yermak and Dmitry Kozak, where the parties could not agree on almost anything. They did not even agree on statements that strengthen the ceasefire.
“Strana” described this in detail in the article “One point in eight. What Yermak actually agreed in Berlin about Donbass”.
The last meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group exacerbated this situation.
The document takes into account the information “DPR” and “LPR” on violations of the ceasefire by Ukraine. We are talking about the opening of sniper fire, which killed one of the separatists, as well as the equipping of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine under Shumami, which approached the positions of the “DPR”.
In this regard, Donetsk proposed to carry out another inspection at Shumy instead of the one that failed last week. However, Ukraine rejected it. But the main thing is detailed in paragraph 2.1.9 of the protocol: “The withdrawal of Ukraine from the agreements reached on the implementation of the” Measures “of July 22, 2020.”
It is necessary to explain the following. The fact is that the demand for an inspection under the Noises comes from the aforementioned ceasefire measures, which Ukraine signed in July. This is one of the reasons that Kiev initially accepted this inspection.
Now Ukraine has officially withdrawn from them for their refusal to comply with the signed agreements. And at the next meeting of the security subgroup, the parties decided to discuss new measures to strengthen the ceasefire.
At heart, we have a situation in which de jure ceasefire measures are no longer valid.
Note that Ukraine is unlikely to have personally announced that it is withdrawing from the terms of the truce. Most likely, this is how TCG partners interpreted Kiev’s refusal to follow the “Measures” in terms of inspection.
This is confirmed by yesterday’s statement from the “DPR”.
“Ukraine refused to use the coordination mechanism to respond to the violations agreed on July 22 as part of the measures to strengthen the ceasefire. Therefore, all additional measures were destroyed by the Ukrainian side,” said the Ministry of Foreign Relations of the Republic.
“We regret the position of the Ukrainian side, so the whole package of measures will have to be reconciled,” the statement said.
Two Moscow landmarks
On other important issues, progress, judging by the protocol, is possible only after the Rada changes the resolution on local elections, which contradicts the Minsk agreements, which state that elections in the region will take place only after the border is returned to Ukraine.
This is an invariable demand of Russia, without which it refuses to carry out the exchange of prisoners and implement other advances. Including holding a new Normandy meeting at the level of heads of state.
However, Zelensky is in no rush to solve the problem. Today, the meeting of the Servant of the People faction, where this issue will be discussed, was canceled, citing the illness of Deputy Prime Minister Reznikov.
And while there are great doubts that the Rada will be able to break the protests of the nationalists and the right-wing opposition to change the resolution.
And without this there is little chance of reaching an agreement with Moscow on anything else.
From there today two signals came at once that there would be no meeting of the leaders of the Normandy Four before the elections. And, in general, about the skepticism of the Russian leadership towards Zelensky.
At first, Peskov said about this in some abstract sentences: they say that the meeting may, in principle, be in the foreseeable future, but for this much needs to be done.
And in the late afternoon, a statement from Lavrov appeared, who criticized Zelensky quite harshly, saying that with such a Ukrainian president, the Minsk accords are unlikely to be implemented.
“That is, they make it clear in Russia that they do not intend to help Zelensky with public relations before the elections. Only if he begins to carry out the political part. In which, it seems, the Kremlin does not really believe.” , analyzes the Telegram channel Politics of the Country. “.
