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After the pro-Western Sandu comes to power in Transnistria, a conflict may flare up again on the borders with Ukraine.
Experts’ predictions will soon come true that the fading conflict in Transnistria, on the border with Ukraine, threatens to flare up again after the pro-Western Maia Sandu came to power.
The newly elected president’s statement on the need to withdraw Russian peacekeepers from the region and replace them with an OSCE mission caused a great resonance.
“Due to the fact that there is no danger of armed clashes for a long time, Moldova’s position is that this mission should be transformed into a civilian mission under the auspices of the OSCE,” he said.
Opponents accused Sanda of trying to create a “second Karabakh” in the hope of Ukraine’s participation, while the defeated former president, the socialist Dodon, already threatens to take people to the streets.
Sandu’s supporters are confident that the withdrawal of Russian troops, on the contrary, can help defuse the situation.
We find out what awaits Transnistria and how a possible aggravation will affect Ukraine.
Sandu is threatened on the Maidan outside Transnistria
Despite the fact that Sandu’s main promises before the elections were the fight against corruption, coexistence and raising the standard of living, and he promised to improve relations with Russia (which attracted the voices of some of those who wavered) The first thing he did was address the issue of Transnistria.
“This is a region that” broke away “and that representatives of the Moldovan authorities cannot even reach. And, yes, Transnistria has the support of Russia. Including, supplying free gas, and in many other ways,” as well It is as Sandu motivated why from there, in his opinion, about the withdrawal of Russian troops.
She believes that the “soft approach” in the negotiations on the resolution of the conflict has not been effective. Sandu says the status of the region must be found after reintegration, but he opposed the previously proposed federalization of Moldova.
Pridnestrovie reacted sharply to the initiative of the newly elected head of state.
The president of the unrecognized Moldovan Republic of Pridnestrovia (PMR), Vadim Krasnoselsky, announced an attempt to create an artificial problem of withdrawing troops from the region.
He believes that the statements about the Russian contingent are politicized and aim to change the focus of the real agenda of the dialogue between Chisinau and Tiraspol.
“To date, there are no legal bases or prerequisites for any change in the current format of the peacekeeping operation,” he said.
So far, President Dodon has called Sandu’s words about the need to withdraw the Russian peacekeeping contingent from Transnistria as a serious mistake. He believes that the anti-Russian policy will have a detrimental effect on Moldova and may lead to a new conflict. To avoid a further escalation of the situation, Dodon threatened to take people to the streets if necessary.
Russia’s reaction was not long in coming.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced the consequences if Sandu tries to withdraw the Russian contingent.
“We listened to your conceptual statements both about the priority of the European leadership in the development of Moldova’s foreign relations, and about the fact that you want to maintain good relations with the Russian Federation. I think that good relations with any country presuppose taking into account mutual interests, taking into account the agreements that have been reached before, “Lavrov said.
He recalled that the peacekeepers of Russia, Ukraine and Moldova are in Transnistria in accordance with the “5 + 2” agreement approved by the OSCE.
In addition, Lavrov says, the Russian military is guarding the ammunition bases to avoid a possible hot phase of the conflict.
“Maya Pashinyan”
In the community of experts, analogies with Karabakh are heard more and more frequently, and Sandu is ironically called “Maya Pashinyan” (by analogy with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan) and speaks of an external stimulus.
“Maya Pashinyan, for the fifth time in a week, demanded to withdraw the Russian peacekeepers from Transnistria. The extinct military conflict, which can finally be eliminated on the basis of a compromise status quo, is being exploited in turbo mode, literally out of nowhere. At the same time, Sandu herself says that Moldovan society is experiencing a deep division, even on the issue of Transnistria. Of course, you would never try hawk feathers if you didn’t feel the external stimuli that are driving this rhetoric and Sandu’s critics warned that the election of a former World Bank employee will lead to increased external dependence, the return of nationalism and revenge, “wrote political analyst Andriy Manchuk on his Facebook page.
Some experts believe that the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeepers may destabilize the situation in the region, as Moldova may try to return Transnistria by force.
Pavda, according to military analysts, the Moldovan army is weaker than the Transnistrian army, but Chisinau can expect help from Romania and Ukraine.
Before the elections, Sandu spoke directly about this.
“We really hope for the support of the Kiev official, because we cannot solve the situation in Transnistria any other way,” Sandu said in an interview with Gordon.
Ukraine’s position on the fate of Transnistria plays a decisive role. If Kishinev announces the imposition of a blockade of the region and if Ukraine supports him, then it will be very difficult for the unacknowledged republic to resist. Even without war.
According to one of the scenarios that experts are discussing, Chisinau can really start with a complete blockade of the unrecognized republic, limiting the supply of food and medicine there, and then if Tiraspol does not surrender, an armed invasion can be prepared.
“Together, Ukraine and Moldova are really capable of exerting great pressure on Transnistria through an economic, social, information blockade and creating a crisis for Russia and the Russian presence in Transnistria. It is with this crisis that they blackmail Russia.” explains Bortnik.
In his opinion, Sandu’s statement on the Russian peacekeepers can be coordinated with Kiev, as both sides will try to profit from the attempt to end Transnistria.
“Ukraine – in order to weaken the influence and negotiating position of Russia in the Donbass, Moldova – to organize the process of political reformatting in the country, that is, to win the parliamentary elections, possibly early, to gain control of the parliament and the government of pro-Western forces, and an element of Western pressure on Russia’s positions on the Belarusian and Kyrgyz arenas, ”believes Bortnik.
True, Russia is unlikely to indifferently watch Prinestrovye, where more than 200 thousand citizens of the Russian Federation live. And it can intervene by providing both political and military assistance.
Russian media are already discussing response options.
For example, military expert Konstantin Sivkov said that Russia will act by force if Sandu “crosses the line.”
“Moscow’s retaliation is inevitable. Moscow intervened in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia even though there were no Russian citizens there. And on the left bank of the Dniester there are more than 200 thousand people with Russian passports. If Kiev and Chisinau try to isolate them from the world Outside, there will be no “formidable silence.” Russia will fight to the end.
Naturally, Sivkov’s statement cannot be considered the official position of Russia. And so far nothing indicates that the Russian Federation is ready to “break through” to Transnistria through the territory of Ukraine.
But the very appearance of such comments is symptomatic.
One way or another, but, should hostilities break out, Ukraine may have a hot spot on the southwestern borders in a very difficult region, on the border with the Odessa region.
“Ukraine may destabilize in its southwest. Especially if this confrontation takes armed forms”, believes Ruslan Bortnik.
Will there be nothing before the elections?
However, in Moldova itself, they view Sandu’s statements about Transnistria much more calmly.
Even because the president of Moldova does not have all the power. Parliament and the government, which are still under Dodon’s control, have more powers. To change this situation, Sandu needs to hold early parliamentary elections and win them.
That is not fast.
And it is not ruled out that Sandu’s statements are so far “for internal use” in order to win the support of voters in future elections.
“There are no prerequisites for an escalation of the Transnistria problem, especially with the participation of Romanians or Ukrainians. The aggravation is not beneficial to either the West or Russia. Sandu’s statements can be seen as a prologue to the future parliamentary electoral race.” Moldovan political scientist Dumitru Bunescu told us.
But if Sandu manages to hold early parliamentary elections and win them, then the question “what to do with Transnistria” will arise in its entirety.
It is true that the answer will not depend so much on Sandu herself and the Moldovan authorities, but on the West (to the extent that he considers the aggravation to be beneficial for him), on Russia (how far he is willing to go in defense from Transnistria) and, of course, from Ukraine, will you support Kiev Actions from Chisinau.
