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On November 26, the non-monetary dollar exchange rate rose 4 kopecks and the interbank market closed between 28.46-28.49 UAH / $. Spot prices remained at yesterday’s level:
- 28.50-28.60 UAH / $ – sale;
- 28.20-28.35 UAH / $ – buy.
“The population does not buy the dollar, on the contrary, currency sales prevail. Perhaps, the currency will be delivered for purchases on Black Friday,” financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky commented to “Strana” about the mood of the people.
Today there was little activity in the interbank market: the total volume of transactions fell from $ 134 million to $ 91 million. Thanksgiving was celebrated in the United States, because American banks did not work and Ukrainian companies could not transfer the dollar. Cashless purchases were made on Tom’s conditions (with delivery tomorrow) or in euros.
Most of the transactions were closed in the range of 28.44-28.4575 UAH / $, and only at the close of trading, the rate increased by 28.46-28.49 UAH / $. About a small volume of purchases / sales.
“The tender opened at the levels of 28,435-28,445 UAH / $. The presence of large sellers kept trading in this range for some time. But with a number of non-resident banks entering the market as buyers, the dollar moved to range of 28.44-28.4575 UAH / $, where, in fact, and traded before the appearance of information about the next big VAT refund. After which the auction moved by 28,455-28,465 UAH / $, and at the close it reached 28.46-28.49 UAH / $ “, – said” Treasurer of the country, head of commercial operations in the interbank market of Credit Dnipro Bank Yuriy Grinenko
Alfa-Bank, OTP Bank and Raiffeisen Bank Aval were among the foreign buyers of the dollar. Banks received today from the Ministry of Finance interest payments on hryvnia government bonds (OVDP) in the amount of UAH 506 million. Part of the funds went to non-residents and they bought a dollar for it.
The National Bank did not go to the interbank market. And the general mood in the market was not the best.
“The daily epidemiological threshold of 15 thousand cases of Covid-19 was exceeded. And these figures are many days late, that is, the real situation is much worse. This is still negative for the market,” commented Andrey, head of the department of Forex Club analytics, al Strana. Shevchishin.
True, you immediately noticed that the new restrictions, even if they were introduced, would certainly reduce trading activity on the interbank market and result in a cheaper dollar.
In fact, at such times, companies stop buying dollars due to a decrease in demand for imported products. Only foreigners buy currencies who want to withdraw more money from Ukraine to help parent structures.
“The quarantine for the hryvnia is also a respite, as the activity of buyers and sellers will fall,” Shevchishin emphasized.
Treasurers explained the evening exchange rate jump (from UAH / $ 28,465 to UAH / $ 28.49) with just one thing: the appearance of a message from the State Treasury about a large VAT payment. On November 26, he transferred to the company up to 4.3 billion UAH. This is the second big payment in a row: in the evenings, officials sent 2.7 billion UAH to companies. It may turn out to be the last or the penultimate: around UAH 8.9 billion was already paid in VAT in November.
Tomorrow, November 27, the treasurers expect the opening of interbank trade in the range of 28.46-28.49 UAH / $, and do not exclude the movement of 28.55-28.60 UAH / $.
Dollar sales may decline due to a weekend in the United States: current foreign exchange earnings will not have time to enter the exporters’ accounts, because the American banks were not working today. And also due to two large VAT payments: the more hryvnia a company has, the less dollars it sells. At the same time, the demand for foreign exchange will most likely be backed by foreigners who convert the payments the Finance Ministry made this week into hryvnia government bonds.
Germany lowered the euro
The euro exchange rate, which was growing on the world market for two days in a row, has fallen slightly today: it fell from $ 1.1918 / € to $ 1.1907 / € after trading in the range of $ 1.1885 -1.1941 / €.
The news from Germany had a negative impact:
- Consumer confidence in the economy of this country in December fell from minus 5 points to minus 6.7;
- The current economic expectations index in November fell from 7.1 points to minus 0.2 points;
- The wage growth expectation index fell from 9.8 points to 4.6.
At the same time, news came from the United States that the US Federal Reserve in 2021 will continue to support its financial markets, softening the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The Fed also plans to keep the old interest rates at 0-0.25% next year. That was fine with the market and it bought back the dollar. The euro was taken less actively, because its rate at the end of the day lost against the “American”.
In Ukraine, the average prices of euros at bank boxes increased by 10 kopecks:
- up to 33.90-34.10 UAH / € – on sale;
- up to 33.40-33.50 UAH / € – for purchase.
The maximum rate of the European currency for sale to individuals reached 34.25 UAH / €.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that the lock does not allow the dollar to rise in price, but 8,000 UAH from Zelensky could change the situation on the foreign exchange market.
We also report that foreigners received the government bond hryvnia and increased the dollar. The price increase will continue.
