Scientists expect a slowdown of the pandemic in Ukraine

So far, a steady decline has been observed, and in the first days of the January “lockdown” the number of new detected patients is expected to be less than 4,000 per day.

Over the past week, the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine has steadily decreased. This was stated in the working group of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Medical Sciences and Shevchenko University. The corresponding document was posted on the NAS website.

According to scientists, the reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2 in the country has fallen to 0.88, and in the first days of the January “lockdown” the number of new detected patients is expected to be less than 4,000 per day.

“The reproductive number has become less than one for all regions of Ukraine except the Lugansk region,” the scientists said, adding that here it is necessary to take into account the effect of the additional day off last week (25 of December), which traditionally underestimates the statistics.

Over the past week, the percentage of new infections detected by PCR testing has remained largely unchanged at 29%.

It is predicted that from December 29 to January 4, the average number of new COVID-19 cases in Ukraine is likely to be in the range of 7300-8200 per day, and from January 5 to 11 – 6200-7300.

At the same time, the death rate of COVID-19 remains stable: it remains in the range of 1.5-2%. In addition, the average age of patients, hospitalized and the age of death have reached their peak in recent weeks.

In total, from the beginning of the pandemic in Ukraine to the end of October, the number of deaths associated with COVID-19 is estimated at 24,200.

At the same time, the scientists noted: given that there is a long holiday period and the introduction of new quarantine restrictions ahead, forecasts and statistics during this period “need to be treated with more care.”

Previously, scientists explained the decline in COVID in Ukraine for two reasons, one of which was associated with a strain of the virus.

Half is not included. Mortality from COVID in Ukraine

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