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The Saúl Álvarez-Callum Smith fight will take place Saturday night in San Antonio. The approximate start time of the battle is at 05:00 Kiev time.
At thirty, Saúl Álvarez has achieved everything in boxing, except the absolute title. He is a champion in four categories, he fought with Mayweather, he beat Golovkin and he is the real leader of the ranking of the best boxers regardless of weight class.
In search of new challenges, Canelo entered heavier categories and, if there could be questions for the two previous opponents, then for Smith, none.
Callum is top, the fight against him is very dangerous
Alvarez’s last five opponents are impressive: Golovkin (tied twice and won on points), the enormous Rocky Fielding (won by third round TKO), Daniel Jacobs (won by unanimous decision) and Sergey Kovalev (won by knockout) in the 10th round). But reservations can start immediately.
For example, not everyone agrees with the results of the struggles against Golovkin. Fielding is objectively one of Saul’s weakest opponents in recent years. Jacobs fought with an uncomfortable weight (although, having switched to a comfortable one, he produced mediocre fights twice), and Kovalev was not only old, but also did not believe in his victory. The best fighters have such reserves always and everywhere, but in the campaign for the championships in four categories, Saul really has questions.
After all, Fielding really isn’t very good, and Kovalev has spent a long time and was the weakest of the champions. I would go to Bivol or Beterbiev, no questions asked, but here they are.
Of course, after defeating Sergei Alvarez, he did not want to go back two categories abruptly. After a series of controversies and litigation with Golden Boy Promotions and DAZN, Saul returns in a great fight. Callum Smith is a powerful challenge not only because of his size.
Just one fact: the Brit is the winner of the Super Series. He passed it even too easily, defeating the eminent compatriot George Groves in the final. If before someone was skeptical about Smith, then here they had to take a closer look.
Callum’s main quality is composure. Like Álvarez’s. The great Briton does not hurry. Fight, show, crush opponents, hit hard, but everything is as serene and calm as possible. Of course, everyone suffers: Groves, Hassan N’Jimkam, John Ryder, the last three opponents Smith knocked down in class. The first two faded, the third, overworked at the points.
Smith is very successful. Slightly more than seventy percent of the opponents did not know what the final bell rings in a duel with him. 27 fights, 19 wins by knockout, 0 losses, perfect. And Callum’s main advantage over Álvarez is anthropometry. She is crazy.
Just compare:
Height: Smith – 191 cm, Alvarez – 173 cm.
Arms span: Smith – 198 cm, Alvarez – 179 cm.
With such dimensions, Callum can easily transition to cruiserweight, bridge, or even heavyweight – after all, these are Alexander Usyk’s one-to-one numbers. Such a simulation of a fight between a Ukrainian and Canelo, if Alexander weighed significantly less.
If Alvarez has a real chance of losing, then in this fight. In the third fight against Golovkin, very unlikely. And in a fight against a giant knockout, why not?
Yes, Canelo’s head took incredible hits. Yes, it is so healthy that you can still share with friends. But Smith isn’t even Kovalev, although he’s heavier than Callum. First, the British are young, they are the same age as the Mexican. Second, it is clear that he will not give up the belt. Third, he was catching everyone with his main chips.
The left side guard and the short straight to the right are Smith’s main weapons. The straight line flies off unexpectedly, mainly because of the care with which it reaches the victim. Process remotely, activate seriality in moments. And then capture a half moment in which the opponent slightly lowers his hand, hits, the opponent is knocked down.
But the left side is even scarier. Smith throws it at the perfect moment: when the right-handed boxer tries to break the gap. There is less than a second when the opponent backs up with a hand that has not yet returned. Smith’s side immediately flies off, closing both questions and, very often, the entire fight.
So Álvarez has no chance?
Of course, speaking of Canelo, it cannot be said that there are no possibilities. Even with Floyd, they were partly. It’s just going to be very difficult now.
Álvarez has experience working with these giants. Not for nothing has he been boxing only with the greats lately. Fielding, of course, is smaller: 185cm tall versus 191cm at Smith, but all of Canelo’s latest opponents are taller and bigger anyway.
Saúl clearly didn’t lose, but he also gained a bit in hitting power in the heavier categories. Apparently you need to drive less or nothing, and it’s fully invested. Kovalev’s knockout is a masterpiece.
Well, experience, of course. By the time he turned thirty, Álvarez hadn’t just had more fights. All of his recent fights were at the highest level, and there isn’t as much attention as him. A record contract, millions of dollars and everyone’s confidence that even in a match against such a giant, Saúl is the favorite. Canelo lives in everything. There’s never been so much pressure on Callum, and a lot will depend on how he takes it.
He will not hold it, he will squeeze and Álvarez will be able to find the necessary distance. And this is plagued by anyone in the world.
So who is the favorite?
The bookies really don’t believe in Smith. You can bet on Saul’s victory for 1.14, for Callum, up to 5.50. An excellent coefficient for those who want to take risks and, with a positive result, win the jackpot. At the same time, bookmakers do not firmly believe in an early win. The Álvarez coefficient in the case of the former increases to 1.90 and that of Smith, to 7.
In fact, the fight must be more competitive than these numbers. And most importantly, most interesting. How will Álvarez deal with such a throbbing giant? Can you reach a comfortable distance? Will it take the same side? And when I catch it, what will happen to it? Will Smith break under psychological pressure? Can you catch Alvarez? Or maybe the arms are long enough to hold the baby?
When a fight has so many questions about the events that can unfold in it, you can expect a great showdown. Even if not a spectacular battle, then quality boxing.
Forecast Sport.ua: Saúl Álvarez wins on points
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