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Russia, under the pretext of new exercises, is actively attracting troops and equipment to the borders with Ukraine. These shots worried not only Ukrainian society, but also the countries of Europe and the United States. The intelligence of our state does not exclude the aggressor from deciding on a large-scale invasion. After all, that threat has always been and always will be.
However, the Kiev official is no stranger to the “exacerbations” of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who often resorts to saber rattling before major international summits, meetings or when he has major unresolved issues with the West. Intimidate, threaten, blackmail – these are Moscow’s favorite methods. Especially when many problems have accumulated within the state and it is necessary to distract people’s attention in some way. Such traditions, what can you do?
However, is there a real threat that Russia will decide to intervene? What will the Ukrainian government do if the enemy wants to seize our new lands? Read more about this and not only in the OBOZREVATEL material.
Russia is bringing troops to the borders of Ukraine. Where exactly?
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Colonel General Ruslan Khomchak said on March 30 that Russia has increased the number of troops near Ukraine’s borders, in the temporarily occupied Crimean territory and in certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk. regions.
According to him, the tactical groups of 28 battalions of the aggressor country are concentrated in the Bryansk, Voronezh, Rostov and Crimea regions. Troops are being dragged to Ukraine’s borders under the guise of “West 2021” military exercises.
Is Putin preparing for an attack?
Yes, such a scenario is possible. Ukrainian intelligence has reported that the Russian Federation is preparing provocations and large-scale plans to bring units of its armed forces to the Donbass territory under the slogan of “protecting Russian citizens” from the unrecognized terrorist republics “DPR” and “LPR”. The option of the Kremlin trying to move the occupation troops into the territory of Ukraine is not ruled out.
The Kremlin said that the movement of Russian troops and the accumulation of forces along the border with our state “should not bother anyone.”
How did Zelenskiy react?
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, commenting on such maneuvers by Moscow, said that the aggressor tries to create a sense of threat.
“Muscle flexing in the format of military exercises and possible provocations along the border is traditional for Russia,” he said. The head of state said that the army of Ukraine is ready for any action of the Russian Federation, but emphasized the willingness to negotiate a truce.
But the NSDC also noted that follow the russian actions and they are already developing various scenarios to respond to the developments.
What was the reaction of the world community?
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba He noted that the current climb is the largest in recent years… However, he also said that Kiev, together with Germany and France, as mediators in the “Normandy format”, are doing everything possible to induce the Russian Federation to a constructive negotiation process. NATO countries have also called for Moscow to return to a peaceful dialogue.
At the same time US European Command puts troops on high alert… US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin assured that in the event of an escalation of Russian aggression, the United States would not leave Ukraine alone and would not allow the implementation of the aggressive aspirations of the Russian Federation.
Later, in a conversation with Zelensky, the American leader Joe Biden reaffirms his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity before the Russian aggression in Donbass and Crimea.
Is there no more truce?
A long time ago. Although the Ukrainian government did not officially announce the end of the so-called ceasefire, the situation in Donbass since early 2021 seriously aggravated. For this period 25 Ukrainian soldiers died in the JFO area. In addition to the use of large-caliber weapons by the invaders, enemy snipers also became more active.
In spring, the situation at the front got even worse. March 26 became a “black day” for the Ukrainian army, four soldiers were killed near the village of Shumy.
What does the Kremlin want to achieve?
No one can know 100%. The experts interviewed by OBOZREVATEL are divided:
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Some believe that Russia will really try to restore the military phase of the conflict, but the experienced Ukrainian army is able to repel from the first minutes of the attack;
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The latter are inclined to think that the Kremlin may resort to military blackmail and bragging, as it has done in recent years, especially during deteriorating relations with the West or before major international summits and meetings. Actually, Zelensky himself spoke of the same thing.
“No one will tell you the seriousness of the current threat. The task of the authorities and the country as a whole is to be prepared for an adequate response. These types of situations arise from time to time, it was predictable, even in time. The rest of the “predictions” can cause misunderstandings and panic, which now benefits the aggressor. By the way, this is one of their objectives, ”Army General and former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Viktor Muzhenko, told OBOZREVATEL.
Former intelligence officer and ATO veteran Andrey Rimaruk expressed a similar position. He thinks that there is a possibility of a Russian offensivebut similar tactics, to show strength and fear, Russia uses every year. It is true that this year the actions of the aggressor are more indicative.
“There are resources in Russia for this (large-scale invasion. – Ed.), Dreams and ambitions too. When Dozens of 152 caliber units cross the Crimean bridge, which can hit targets at a distance of 20 to 30 km. – It is clear they will go to the coast. And when you look at the presence of super powerful missiles that can fly from Crimea to Belaya Tserkov, this is also a sign of something. There are alarming calls, but every year you see similar maneuvers from Russia, “he said.
According to Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer, for In mid-spring, the probability of offensive actions by Russia increases, and the active phase of the war can begin within a month. He expressed the view that the Kremlin believes the West is waging a hybrid war against it. Therefore, they say, relations between Moscow and Washington worsened, and Ukraine turned out to be one of the parties to their confrontation. And in this case, the Russians will supposedly attack first.
“The war in Donbass can start in about a month. It is very likely. Because in addition to gathering military equipment and contingents, Russia is overtaking three large Baltic landing ships. They have already passed the English Channel,” said the expert. . saying.
However, Oleksiy Reznikov, the deputy prime minister and minister for the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine, in a recent interview with OBOZREVATEL, assured that The threat of a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is now unlikely. Even if this happens, the Ukrainians will be able to defend their land and their freedom.
“Russia is not financially ready for war, but The Ukrainian army today is heaven and earth as it was before 2014. War About 500 thousand Ukrainians passed, Let them know what gunpowder smells like, what blood is, and the loss of a comrade on the battlefield. In addition, officially: 250 thousand members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and another 50,000 soldiers of the National Guard. Everyone with weapons in hand will defend their home and their street. In addition, Russia has its own vast territory, who will protect it if they deploy their entire army on our borders? ”Reznikov emphasized.
It is unlikely that the authorities will dare to “reveal their letters” and say how they will react to the Kremlin’s provocations. It would be, to put it mildly, irrational and dangerous. However, Ukraine, both in the past and in the future, must always be prepared for the abrupt maneuvers of its aggressor neighbor. Of course, in the civilized world, diplomacy is the best way to resolve a conflict. But to use this instrument of international politics more effectively, any state needs to have strong “muscles.”
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