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Joe Biden and Donald Trump (Photo: REUTERS / Brian Snyder, Jonathan Ernst. Collage by HB)
Less than a week remains until the presidential election in the United States, in which former Vice President Joe Biden – the main opponent of White House incumbent Donald Trump – has already predicted a landslide victory.
The figures presented by authoritative sociological groups and Western publications are truly impressive: The Economist predicts Biden’s election victory (read more about the peculiarities of the American electoral system on our cards) with a probability greater than 96%; FiveThirtyEight gives 88%, while the overall electoral gap between the former vice president and Donald Trump is 8.7% (51.8% versus 43.1%).
As the international consulting firm GQR points out, in the so-called «fluctuating states, “where Democrats and Republicans are supported almost equally, Biden is also ahead of Trump: in Michigan, by 8.7%; in Wisconsin, 7.8%; in Pennsylvania, by 3.8% ; in Arizona – 2.4%; in North Carolina – 0.7%, show the results of a survey portal RealClearPolitics.
Florida, the state in which traditionally the hottest fight between representatives of the Republican and Democratic parties of the US takes place, this year also leans towards Biden. At the same time, the electoral gap between presidential candidates is the smallest: a Democrat is ahead of his rival by only 0.4%.
Less than half of Americans believe Donald Trump did his jobwhile in the Oval Office – 44.3%. While the presidential action to combat the COVID-19 pandemic is approved by even less – 40.6%.
62.0% of US citizens think the country is going in the wrong directionand only 31.3% consider the state development vector to be correct.
To win the election and be re-elected for a second term, Donald Trump must obtain the majority of votes in the states of Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, as well as in one of the counties of Maine and Omaha in Nebraska. (the last two states do not have the traditional system for other regions «Winner Takes It All “, where the candidate with the most votes in the state will automatically receive the votes of all electors).
The uncertainty on the path to Biden’s victory lies in how states will count the votes, GQR analysts say. Risk factors: controversy surrounding ballot mailing and possible fraud.
Potential «plan B for Trump – Pennsylvania. Even if you lose in one of the key states: Michigan (current president’s support – 43%) and Wisconsin (43.6%), but if you win the support of Pennsylvanians, you can win the election. This scenario is likely due to a number of factors:
- Trump’s very high voter turnout on Election Day;
- Very high turnout of white voters with no higher education, especially men;
- Very high participation of residents of the suburbs and towns;
- Biden’s support from Latin American voters is less than 60%;
- Low turnout among young and African American voters.
Although many analysts and experts compare the electoral balance of power in 2016 and 2020, speaking of a possible windfall victory for Trump, GQR experts note: The current electoral gap between Biden and Trump is wider and more predictable than between Trump and Clinton four years ago..
Added to this, the US Democratic candidate has more than 50% approval of the population on key indicators. (overall, her policy approval rating is higher than Hillary Clinton’s.) One of the reasons for this is the lack of strong third party representatives. (that is, politicians who are not from the Republican or Democratic field).
Another key difference between the situations of 2016 and 2020: Six days before the election, Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by 3.1%, while Biden is currently at 8.7%. In conclusion, analysts point to the higher quality of the work of sociological services this year, compared to the previous pre-electoral period.
The Democratic Party also has a good chance of retaining a majority in the House of Representatives. US Congress, and even increasing the number of seats, according to the FiveThirtyEight portal, such a scenario can be observed with a probability of 97%. Chances of winning a majority in the Senate, now controlled by Republicans (53 versus 47 seats), the Democratic Party has less – 74%.
Biden also wins in terms of campaign finance: Candidate raised $ 100 million more than Trump headquarters. In the last week before the election, Biden and other Democratic groups spent nearly twice as much on television ads as Republicans and Trump himself.
Presidential candidate teams in swing states spent $ 9 out of $ 10 on TV ads this week: Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. Biden’s campaign closing videos highlighted the importance of running at a critical time for America’s future and told the candidate’s personal story, while Trump’s ads criticized Biden’s trade and economic policies and promised «law and order”.
In the final days before the voting date, Biden’s campaign team focuses on the traditional «Republican ”Georgia and the state of Iowa, which voted for Trump in 2016. Furthermore, the focus of the Democratic teams is Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which gave Trump the victory four years ago.
In turn, Trump has focused on traveling to Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, as well as Omaha County, Nebraska.
The main message of Biden’s speeches six days before the election was “unity and hope.” The Democrat’s trump card also turned into public support for his candidacy for Barack Obama, under which Biden was vice president. Obama’s criticism has focused on Donald Trump’s failures in fighting the coronavirus pandemic. Trump promises to restore the economy, which has struggled due to COVID-19.
Nearly 80 million Americans have already voted in the US snap election., a large number of them are in key states that will decide the outcome of the elections. The majority of the votes were cast by mail: 77%. Only 23% of those who voted in person attended the polling stations (data is current as of October 28).
Election results are unlikely to be announced on voting night as more people tend to mail ballots in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (especially Democrats), and counting them takes longer.
Some experts speak of “nightmare scenarios” that could radically affect the course of the elections: For example, fraud and manipulation in the counting of votes, particularly those cast by mail.
In this case, the end of the question of the winner of the election will be put by the Supreme Court of the United States, where since Monday the conservatives, traditionally gravitating towards the Republican Party of the United States, have a majority. (6 conservatives versus 3 liberals). Most likely, in a controversial situation, this judicial body will side with Donald Trump, analysts conclude.
