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Quarantine will begin to be canceled in mid-May
The quarantine is expected to end in late June this year. However, at the same time, restrictions on mass events can remain for a long time.
The National Bank of Ukraine predicted the time of the main stages of quarantine removal in the country. This is stated in the April NBU inflation report.
As noted in the review, NBU’s current forecast is based on the assumption that quarantine will end in late June this year.
The first step is to ease the restrictions from mid-May. It will include a permit for the following activities: trade in non-food products, certain personal care services, cafes / restaurants, public transportation, and intercity services.
However, there remains a ban on holding mass events (sports and entertainment events, visiting theaters), traveling abroad, and air travel, according to the review.
The second step involves removing almost all restrictions from the end of June. However, at the same time, restrictions on specific events, such as big concerts, sports championships, etc., can remain for a long time.
“At the same time, such residual restrictions will not have a noticeable effect on the economy, but will serve as a barrier to the spread of the epidemic,” say NBU experts.
According to the NBU forecast, due to quarantine restrictions to overcome the pandemic and global crisis, the Ukrainian economy will contract by 5.0% in 2020, but will resume growth at around 4% in subsequent years. It should be noted that a direct impact on the Ukrainian economy in 2020 will lead to a loss of 2.5% of GDP.
Previously, the Ministry of Health announced that the situation allows the removal of the quarantine to begin. Authorities intend to begin mitigating the restrictive measures starting May 11.
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