NAS made a forecast on the COVID epidemic in Ukraine

The incidence of the coronavirus among Ukrainians by the end of the month will gradually decrease, scientists say.

In Ukraine, the incidence of the coronavirus will decrease at the end of December. This forecast was made by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine on Monday, December 14.

As the statistical model of Facebook Prophet shows, the incidence of the coronavirus in Ukraine will decrease in two weeks. The National Academy of Sciences predicts that on December 28, the number of new cases per day will be about 2,356.

“The rapid decrease in the predicted values ​​of the number of new patients, unfortunately, does not give confidence that this dynamics will continue for several more weeks, since the number of observations is too small for such predictions, so it is recommended to use the forecast be careful, “the message said.

At the same time, the SEIR-U compartment model also predicts a decrease in incidence, but not as dramatic. Thus, as of December 28, according to the forecast, 7,552 cases of coronavirus will be registered in the country.

“It should be noted that the prediction error increases significantly with the increase in the prediction interval, so the results obtained must be treated with caution,” added the Academy.

Recall that previously the Ministry of Health explained how they chose the quarantine date. The optimal date was calculated not only on the basis of the test indicators, but also taking into account the forecasts of hospital occupancy.

Figures for the report. Why Covid Statistics Are Falling

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