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The situation in Karabakh still looks desperate for Armenia. Yet with astonishing tenacity, the Armenian army continues to resist. Read on in Russian.
34 days of war in Karabakh – The Azerbaijani army continues to advance on Lachin-Shusha and got very close. The exit to this main highway means the withdrawal of Karabakh and a complete defeat for Armenia. This entire key area is already in the Azerbaijani artillery destruction zone.
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On October 29, Karabakh President Arayik Harutyunyan declared that the Azerbaijani troops 5 km from the city of Shushi are in fact an admission that the situation has become even more critical. There is no video on the net showing the progress of 5 km to Shusha. In the hostilities map compiled by Censor.net based on videos and photos, Azerbaijani troops reached positions 15 km from Shusha on October 29 and took positions 15 km from Lachin on October 22, and so far there is no new videos of Azerbaijani or Armenian positions in this area. …
October 29th Armenians stopped publishing new data on their dead military – Today’s official figure is 1166 dead. Azerbaijan does not publish its human losses, obviously there are hundreds, however, if Bayraktars continues to launch high-precision attacks every day, then Armenian artillery and tanks will no longer be able to respond on the same scale as at the beginning of the war: Armenia suffered huge losses of equipment.
Combat loss analysis
Azerbaijan is exercising overwhelming air superiority and drones continue to inflict more casualties than all other weapons combined. According to the Oryx portal, which records losses based on published videos and photos, Armenia’s losses as of October 31 are (destroyed and captured):
- 10 air defense radars for early detection and guidance of the S-300 and S-125 anti-aircraft missile systems;
- Repellent electronic warfare station;
- 22 SAM S-300 launchers, Osa, Strela-10;
- VHF Pyramid-1 jamming station;
- 1 Elbrus tactical-operational missile system;
- 67 multiple launch rocket systems (including 4 of 6,300 mm MLRS BM-30 Smerch);
- 138 self-propelled and towed artillery pieces (16 of 38 SPGs announced before the war were lost);
- 177 tanks and 4 BTS (before the war, the Russian media indicated the presence of 277 T-72s in Armenia);
- 79 units of light armored vehicles;
- about 400 different vehicles.
There is no complete data on the losses of Azerbaijan, as the battlefield remains mainly with the Azerbaijani army, and the Armenians are poorly equipped with video cameras, drones and modern sights with video recording function. At the moment, Oryx has established the following losses (destroyed and captured):
- 25 tanks and 1 WRI;
- 35 units of light armored vehicles;
- 20 cars;
- 24 drones, including Armenia’s main problem: Bayraktar TB-2.
What conclusion can we draw from these losses? Most of the Armenian military equipment in Karabakh was destroyed.
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Air domination of Azerbaijan
Yesterday, Azerbaijan showed video of the destruction of three 300mm long-range MLRS BM-30 Smerch at the same time. It is significant that in the video the Bayraktars attacked the Tornados in the central Karabakh region, near Stepanakert. This means that Armenia cannot cover air defense or even key positions in the Shushi-Stepanakert region.
7 radars and several launchers of the longest-range Armenian anti-aircraft missile systems S-300PS were destroyed; In pre-war publications, the number of S-300s in Armenia was estimated at about 6 divisions; losses mean that most of the S-300 guide radars, that is, the system in mostly knocked out.
Most of the most effective means of military air defense Osa-AK: 13 units, covering the troops on the front line, were destroyed.
Azerbaijan maintains air dominance mainly due to competent tactics of using electronic reconnaissance in a single complex, various attack and reconnaissance drones, manned combat aircraft and helicopters, anti-aircraft missile systems, high-precision ballistic missiles and long-range MLRS. .
Only with a reliable air defense can the Armenians in Karabakh delay the offensive., but the Armenian command cannot solve this problem. One gets the impression that the most modern air defense systems Buk-M1-2 and Tor-M2KM were delivered to Armenia on the condition that they were not sent to the Karabakh territory. The loss of these air defense systems in Karabakh has not yet been confirmed. As there are no big losses for the Azerbaijani shock drones, which in some sectors of the front even hunt individual infantrymen. Azerbaijan’s military superiority over Armenia continues to grow.
Analysis of the operating environment
According to the video, Azerbaijan decided to suspend the attack on Lachin in a comfortable flat area south of Zangelan. This direction runs between the border with Armenia and the eastern mountain range. Russian border guards with unfurled Russian flags have already been deployed to various positions on the border with Armenia. And on October 31, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that in the event of aggression against Armenia, Russia will defend its ally under the Treaty on Collective Security Organization. Thus, an attack along the border runs the risk of Armenian counterattacks and bombardments from the territory of Armenia, and attacking Armenia risks bombarding Russian border guards or military personnel. Clearly, this is not part of Azerbaijan’s plans. Therefore, heading south, the Azerbaijanis do not approach the border with Armenia, with the exception of a section on the border with Iran.
Azerbaijan suffered the main blow to the east: Azerbaijani infantry and special forces are advancing through the mountain range towards Shusha.
The Armenian command claims that these are the advancements of the “DRG”, but in fact, in numerous Armenian videos, it is not the “DRG” that is captured, but small groups of Azerbaijani infantry breaking through and filtering up and down in broad front supported by artillery and drones, then there are combined arms units that are reliably anchored on busy lines.
The Armenian infantry in the mountains offers fierce resistance. It is worth noting the resilience of individual units, which continue to resist the enormous superiority of the enemy in tactics, weapons, command and control, and logistics.
Azerbaijanis have already accumulated a lot of experience in military operations. The directions of your offense are now easily calculated, but breaking defense is accomplished by isolating the point of attack and destroying all firearms and covering with drones, artillery, and MLRS. Drones play a crucial role in the actions of ground forces.
Therefore, if a miracle is not performed and the Armenians do not organize air defense in the Shushi region, there is no possibility of long-term resistance on the Shusha-Lachin highway. The Armenians do not have the strength to drive the Azerbaijanis out of the mountains: Bayraktars will fire any major counterattack and the losses in the infantry and artillery crews are irreparable.
In the near future, the Azerbaijanis will make a new breakthrough. Azerbaijan will organize access to direct fire anywhere on the road, and then the Armenian army will have to leave Karabakh.
Theoretically, Armenia still has air defense systems; Although the Azerbaijanis identify and destroy early warning radars fairly quickly, modern Buk and Tor air defense systems can be used in conjunction with the Avtobaza RER stations and the EW Infauna station. Theoretically, this makes it possible to operate from ambushes, but so far there is no indication that the Armenians will decide to bring all this small and expensive equipment into Karabakh and thus expose the defense of Armenia.
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But nevertheless, The security guarantees of the Russian Federation will now allow the Armenian command to launch all available forces into battle.not afraid to travel abroad with Turkey, but having received support at the Karabakh border from Russian border guards, they can release reserves. The battle for Karabakh is not over yet.
The situation in Karabakh still looks desperate for Armenia. The war is lost, but with astonishing tenacity the Armenian army continues to resist… Taking advantage of this, the Armenian leadership is making efforts to stop the war by diplomatic methods, and has obtained the support not only of Russia, but also of France, and the even more evident sympathy of the United States. Canada has stopped supplying Turkey with key Bayraktar weapons. International pressure on Azerbaijan is growing, but can diplomats stop the war?
Erdogan, with his presence and the threat of a confrontation, has put Putin in a narrow frame, and Russia is behaving in an emphatically peaceful and correct manner, completely excluding interference in the Karabakh war. Putin does not dare to supply even air defense systems to Armenia – your ally in the CSTO. And in contrast, the determined support of Azerbaijan from Turkey, a NATO country, and the presence of 6 Turkish F-16 fighters at the air base near Baku excludes Russian interference in the war in the Karabakh territory.
Turkey makes it clear that any hostility against Azerbaijan will lead, firstly, to the strengthening of the Turkish Armed Forces in Azerbaijan, and secondly, the defeat of Assad’s Russian ally in Syria will follow, and then the probable defeat or expulsion of the group. Russian.
On the subject, Russia is ready to help Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan, but there is a condition
In order to complete the operation in Karabakh, Turkey entered into an open diplomatic conflict with France and maintains tense relations with the United States. All this shows that Erdogan and Aliyev are not going to make concessions until the military operation in Karabakh is completely complete.
