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In recent days, alarming news about freshwater shortages has been pouring in from Russian-occupied Crimea. So, according to the head of the Crimean occupation authorities Sergey Aksenov, during the New Year holidays, the Crimean authorities received more than 700 appeals and complaints due to the lack or poor quality of water, violation of the schedule of their supply and leaks.
As you know, in Simferopol, Yalta, Bakhchisarai, water has been supplied on time for a long time. Since the new year, Alushta and Evpatoria have joined them.
According to RIA Novosti, citing data from the Hydrometeorological Center, after the December drought, the water supply in all Crimean reservoirs has become less than the volume of a Partizansky reservoir.
Contrary to forecasts, December did not bring the expected rainfall to the peninsula and the river beds remained dry.
Therefore, the drying of the upper reaches of the Alma River has been occurring for 150 days and that of the Negro River, 141 days. These two rivers flowing down from the mountains feed the Partizanskoe and Chernorechenskoe reservoirs, which supply drinking water to the largest cities on the peninsula – Simferopol and Sevastopol. According to long-term observations, the Alma River last dried up at this time of year in 1998, and the Chernaya River in 1985 and 2010. The mountain rivers in the vicinity of Alushta, Feodosia and Sudak also remain dry.
In December, according to the Crimean State Water Resources Committee, the moisture reserve in three reservoirs supplying Simferopol dropped to 4.5 million cubic meters and accounted for only about six percent of their design volume. By the end of December, the total volume of reserves in all Crimean reservoirs had decreased to 31.3 million cubic meters, which is less than the volume of a Partizansky reservoir. At the same time, on January 5 the absolute temperature record of 1931 was broken in the Crimea. On this day, the air on the peninsula warmed to 17.6 degrees. 90 years ago on this day in Crimea it was 14.4 degrees Celsius [https://rg.ru/2021/01/08/reg-ufo/zapas-vody-v-krymu-stal-menshe-obema-odnogo-vodohranilishcha.html]/
A similar situation in occupied Crimea forces Ukrainian leaders to prepare for further pressure from the Kremlin in order to force it to resume supplying water from the Dnieper to the peninsula to avoid an environmental disaster.
But instead of thinking about possible scenarios for the development of the situation by the Kremlin and calculating the risks of an attack by the Russian Federation from Crimea to break a dam in the Kherson region, President Zelensky, responding to a question from the journalists of the Focus edition at the end of last year, reacts like a naive child: “It is a terrible situation, I do not even want to imagine it. I am against. Hopefully it is impossible. Otherwise there will be a great war. We will not go nowhere, we will all fight, everyone will mobilize, both men and women. It will be bad for the people of Ukraine. And I think Russia understands it very well. “[https://focus.ua/politics/470246-visokosniy-rik-volodimira-zelenskogo].
Let me remind readers that in his final press conference in December 2020, the President of the Russian Federation recognized the seriousness of the problem of lack of fresh water in Crimea. And also the fact that the technology of seawater desalination, which was so much talked about and written about in the Russian media, and presented by the Crimean leadership as a panacea for all ills, is not because of its lack of economic profitability.
During his press conference, Putin also said that huge freshwater resources have allegedly been found under the Sea of Azov. And that in the near future, thanks to technological innovations in its production, the problem of the lack of fresh water in Crimea will be solved. However, such statements reminded me of the Russian president’s demonstration of excerpts from Turkish cartoons about nuclear-reactor missiles on the eve of the 2018 elections, bypassing the US missile defense system and falling in Florida.
Therefore, given the depletion of the water resources of the Crimean steppe, the threat of environmental disaster, the lack of time and financial resources for their solution, the following options for the Kremlin’s actions are most likely to me.
The first and most likely scenario is increased pressure on Ukrainian leaders to resume the Dnieper’s water supply to Crimea. In exchange for this, the Kremlin leadership can promise not only a high price for water, but also certain concessions on the sequence of implementation of the Minsk agreements, as well as the possibility of starting a discussion on their adaptation to the realities of 2021. Promising, as we all know perfectly well, “does not mean getting married.”
As we recall, the question of resuming the water supply from the Dnieper to Crimea has already been repeatedly thrown into the Ukrainian information space immediately after Zelensky’s victory in the 2019 elections. But after a strong reaction from the most active part of society and the threat of mass protests, refused to implement it.
If the Ukrainian leadership continues to hold a tough stance on this issue, the pressure may increase through military means. Namely, the resumption of active hostilities in Donbas by the Russian occupation forces. After all, preserving even a shaky ceasefire on the line of contact is almost the only achievement of President Zelensky in a year and a half in office, which he values highly. And the Kremlin knows this very well. Especially in the context of a decrease in Zelensky’s rating personally, not to mention his party, which is clearly shown by all opinion polls, from last fall to the present.
The second scenario, which does not exclude, but complements the first, is the strengthening of political destabilization in Ukraine with the aim of holding early parliamentary elections. After all, it is no secret that there are political forces in Ukraine, represented in parliament, ready not only to comply without questioning the Minsk agreements according to the Kremlin scenario, but also to resume the supply of fresh water to Crimea even tomorrow. .
And if / when opinion polls show sufficient support from the pro-Russian forces for the formation of a new coalition and the government making such decisions, then this option will be given priority. And the deterioration of the economic and epidemiological situation in the country, together with an active information campaign on television channels affiliated with the godfather of the president of the Russian Federation, will only contribute to this.
In fact, this scenario was launched literally the first day after the announcement of the failed results of the local elections of “Servidores”. We are talking about the calls. “Constitutional crisis”, initiated by the submission of the OLL deputies and the parliamentary groups controlled by the oligarch Kolomoisky in the Verkhovna Rada.
Their ultimate goal is not only to zero out the anti-corruption infrastructure and liquidate NABU, but also to provoke Zelensky himself into actions that contradict the Constitution of Ukraine. And this scenario continues to unfold as the head of the Constitutional Court Tupitsky basks in the sun and rents a royal villa in Dubai. That is, he feels more than confident, despite all Zelensky’s statements about the need for his resignation.
The third scenario, the most severe, is a direct military aggression by the Russian Federation in the Kherson region from the Crimea with the aim of destroying the dam that blocks the water supply from the Dnieper to Crimea. Despite recent statements by Ukraine’s intelligence generals about its likelihood, I consider it the most unlikely. At least in the near future and provided that the first two scenarios are realistic to achieve the objectives set.
Especially after the victory of Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the US presidential election. After all, the threat of large-scale sanctions from the US and the EU has been a deterrent since 2014 after the Malaysian Boeing crash.
Furthermore, in the context of the imminent second wave of coronacrisis, the beginning of the introduction of new blockages and, therefore, the probability of a sharp drop in oil prices. It should be noted that the economic situation and external conditions have changed too much for the Russian Federation since 2014. And the prospects for 2021, given the volatility of energy prices for the Russian Federation, do not appear optimistic in the context from: a) end-of-2020 non-profitability reports from its gas monopoly Gazprom; b) put into operation a new gas pipeline for the supply of gas from Azerbaijan to the southern EU countries; c) new sanctions against Nord Stream 2 following the adoption of the US defense budget, which at least postponed the time for its completion and commissioning; d) the beginning of a fall in oil prices after the announcement of strong closures in Germany and the United Kingdom.
Well, the risks of a repeat of Armageddon for oil prices in April 2020, when they refused to buy Russian oil even at a price of $ 4. Per barrel in the case of the introduction of blockades in all countries of the The EU and the more developed economies in Asia make this scenario almost unrealistic. After Biden’s victory, the option of introducing a new blockade in the United States is also quite likely if the vaccination process is not fast and efficient enough.
Because Crimea, according to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, is an integral part of Russia and there are no “militias” and volunteers, as Putin said in 2014, they are no longer there.
However, this does not mean that the Ukrainian leadership should not prepare for the worst case scenario and strengthen the country’s defense capacity, especially on the border with the Russian Federation and Russian-occupied Crimea.
Furthermore, no one canceled the option of sabotage and undermining the dam, which can be attributed to extremists and saboteurs. And this option has long been voiced by the most controversial speakers of the Russian agitation industry in propaganda shows.
And, as you know, the expression: “What is in Putin’s head, is in Zhirinovsky’s language” has long been an axiom.
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