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The economy in Europe will shed more than 6%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects a recession Ukraine GDP in 2020 7.7% and recovery in 2021 3.6%.
This is stated in the IMF economic report published on April 14.
According to him, the increase in consumer prices this year will be 4.5%, and the next – 7.2%. The current account deficit could be reduced from 7% of GDP in 2019 to 2% of GDP this year, with an additional expansion to 2.4% of GDP in 2021.
More about: Coronavirus in Ukraine
“As a result of the pandemic, the world economy is projected to decline sharply by 3% of GDP in 2020, more than during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. In the baseline scenario, the pandemic will stop in the second half of 2020 and slowing it down may gradually weaken, the global economy is projected to grow 5.8% in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, which will be fueled by political support, “the IMF said.
The GDP reduction in Europe is expected to be 6.6% this year, after growth of 1.6% in 2019. However, in 2021, Europe’s economy will return to growth and increase by 4.5% of GDP, Fund analysts predict.
Let’s remember the previous ones foretold, that in 2020 the economy of Ukraine will grow 3.5-5%, inflation will be 5% (plus / minus 1%) and the dollar will cost 27-28 UAH. On March 29, the cabinet approved new macroeconomic projections for 2020: GDP – minus 4.8%, average annual USD – 29.5 UAH (plus 1.5-2 UAH), inflation – 8.7% (plus 3.1%), unemployment – 9.4% (plus 1.3%), the average salary is 11 thousand UAH ( without changes). At the same time, the Office of the President predicted that 2020 Ukraine’s economy will drop at least 5%.
Due to the global financial crisis caused by the effects of the active spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19, experts predict the decline of economies, including the Ukrainian one. Dragon Capital’s updated base forecast for 2020 provides Ukraine’s GDP falls 4% and the devaluation of the hryvnia to 30 UAH per dollar by the end of the year, as long as the quarantine measures last until May (the average rate is expected to be UAH 29 / USD, that is, the devaluation will be approximately 11% compared to last year’s rate). According to a less optimistic forecast, if the quarantine is extended for a longer period, GDP may drop 9% and the hryvnia will drop to 35 UAH / dollar. Under such conditions, one can expect an increase in unemployment. world Bank Ukraine’s GDP is projected to decline by 3.5% in 2020. Also due to the coronavirus pandemic 65% of Ukrainian companies will not be able to meet their annual business plans.
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