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On September 11, the non-monetary dollar exchange rate rose 9 kopecks and the week ended in the interbank market between 27.93-27.95 UAH / $. At the box office, average prices also rose quite actively:
- on sale grew by 8 kopecks, up to 28.0-28.10 UAH / $;
- the purchase increased by 5 kopecks – 27.65-27.80 UAH / $.
Today’s maximum rates were 28.25 UAH / $, this rate was set by FUIB.
Speculate on the IMF
Interbank trading was inactive today, which is confirmed by the total volume of transactions, which fell from $ 130 million to $ 93 million. Exporters tried to take risks and raise prices as much as possible: the highest price of the day was UAH 27.94-27.97 / $. But after him, the market went down a bit.
“The business returned to nothing, there was no movement in the market, there was no traction. There were no large sales from exporters, no large buyers came out. The National Bank observed the negotiation from outside, it was not in the auction,” commented the analyst financial about mood. Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
The 27.97 UAH / $ movement in such conditions was explained only by the efforts of sellers and speculation on the latest IMF statements. That the International Monetary Fund cannot determine the time of the visit of its mission to Ukraine and give a preliminary assessment of the loans to our country. They say that the Americans did not like the Constitutional Court’s decision on the illegality of Artem Sytnik’s appointment to the post of director of NABU.
“The issue of the IMF, and then the issue of local elections, will be actively discussed in order to shake up the foreign exchange market and raise the dollar exchange rate. There is not enough real demand for this, due to the reduction in volumes. import, so we will try to work on the psychological reaction of the market to different This week the goal of reaching 28.0 UAH / $ was set, but it did not reach a bit. So this bar will be active by assault next week, “the chief treasury officer of one of the big banks told Strana.
Rozhkova and new rumors.
The financial market has had two rumors of its own today.
First, they say that the first vice president of the National Bank, Katerina Rozhkova, went on vacation this week and, according to unconfirmed information, she may not return to work at the central bank. That is, after the rest, you can request dismissal of your own free will. And after her, the NBU can leave a pack of his subordinates, the heads of key departments in the supervision:
- Alexander Bevz – Director of the Licensing Department;
- Igor Bereza – Director of the Department of Financial Monitoring of the National Bank;
- Natalia Degtyareva – Director of the Department of Banking Supervision.
What will happen to the dollar next week?
Treasurers predict a further appreciation of the dollar next week. On Monday, September 14, the opening of operations in the interbank market is expected within the limits of UAH 27.95-28.0 / $, with a higher movement of UAH 28.05 / $.
On September 15 and 16, two small coupon (interest) payments on state bonds of the Ministry of Finance should be made, amounting to 73 million UAH and 318 million UAH, respectively. It is believed that they will not lead to a notable increase in demand for foreign exchange.
On Tuesday, September 15, the government also planned to place four new OVDP issues: three hryvnia and one dollar.
“If the Cabinet of Ministers is not interested in state banks in hryvnia government bonds, then most likely we will not see large placements in the national currency. But officials have a good chance of reaping a good harvest of dollars, for $ 200-300 million, if they offer an interesting rate, “Nevmerzhitsky said.
The euro rises in price in Ukraine
The euro exchange rate on the world market at the end of the week fell from $ 1.1859 / € to $ 1.1830 / €. During the day, the prices did not move in a very wide range – $ 1.1813-1.1874 / €.
Trading on the stock exchanges was not very active, they continued to digest yesterday’s statements by the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde: about maintaining the previous rates, pointing to inflation. And also her words about the recovery of the European economy, which largely depends on the spread of the coronavirus.
“There is a feeling that it is normal for the euro to be in the region of $ 1,175-1,185. If the euro reaches $ 1,195, it is likely to start falling. In general, representatives of the ECB suggest not to react sharply to the rate. of the euro, “a senior currency trader told Reuters. strategist Tempus Inc. Juan Pérez.
In Ukraine, average euro cash rates rose again today:
- for sale for 10 kopecks – up to 33.10-33.30 UAH / €;
- on a purchase for 15 kopecks – up to 32.55-32.75 UAH / €.
