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It was possible to buy an “American” today for UAH 28.25-28.45 / $, and sell it for UAH 27.95-28.10 / $. Photo: Country
On December 29, the non-monetary dollar fell 5 kopecks and the interbank market closed at 28.20-28.26 UAH / $. He lost exactly the same amount on the spot market. As a result, the average rates in the banks’ boxes were in the following ranges:
- up to 28.25-28.45 UAH / $ – on sale;
- up to 27.95-28.10 UAH / $ – for purchase.
People continue to actively trade in US currency. Therefore, from time to time, banks do not have enough hryvnia to buy dollars from the population.
Currency trading on the interbank market developed at the same rate as yesterday: according to Bloomberg, the volume of transactions fell from $ 121 million to $ 120 million.
In the morning, the prices remained in the region of UAH 28.30-28.33 / $, and the treasurers spoke about Globus Bank’s foreign currency purchases (for clients). But as soon as active buying ended, the currency prices fell and only towards the close they adjusted from UAH 28.19-28.22 / $ to UAH 28.20-28.26 / $.
“The demand for the dollar at the end of the year is very small. On the eve of the tightening of the blockade in January, there will be no large import purchases. Therefore, the market is quite slow and is dominated by currency sellers,” described the financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky to “Strana”.
Banks are in full swing of the dollar in the interbank market, which is now bought from the population at the cashiers and through mobile applications (Internet banking systems).
“There are almost no buyers of currencies in the interbank market, sellers sell currencies as needed. The interbank market opted for the spot market, which lacks hryvnia. Before the holidays, the population is actively selling currencies,” he told Strana Andrey Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club analysis department.
In the previous weeks in the interbank market, the dollar still sold against the hryvnia bond purchase of the national government loan, which greatly strengthened the hryvnia. But this time it was not like that. Because today foreigners did not buy OVDP from the Ministry of Finance. The banks took them away.
However, the last OVDP placement in 2020 turned out to be quite large – the government raised 23.6 billion UAH. A large amount came in dollars: $ 322.9 million at 2.9% annually for 3 months. And everything else is hryvnia.
The yield reached 12.25%, the highest rate in 2020. The highest demand today was for 3- and 11-month securities. The volumes were distributed as follows:
- 5.8 billion UAH: 11 months at 11.7% per annum;
- 5.2 billion UAH – 3 months at 10% per annum;
- UAH 990.9 million – 1.5 years at 11.75% per annum;
- 858.6 million UAH – 6 months at 10.75% per annum;
- 653.1 million UAH – 2 years at 11.85% per annum;
- 611.2 million UAH: 3 years at 12% per annum;
- UAH 324.6 million – 5 years at 12.25% per annum;
- UAH 103.7 million – 3.5 years at 12.15% per annum.
Experts admit a further strengthening of the hryvnia tomorrow. The start of the interbank market in the last non-cash trade of 2020 is forecast to be 28.21 to 28.25 UAH / $, and a move to 28.50 UAH / $ is expected.
“Given the shortage of currency buyers, even the exit of the National Bank with the purchase of the dollar is not excluded. I think the regulator will not allow the hryvnia to strengthen strongly,” Andriy Shevchishin said.
Rising inflation due to Trump payments
The price of the euro rose again on the world market: from $ 1.2210 / € to $ 1.2255 / € after trading in the range of $ 1.2208-1.2275 / €.
Investors were impressed by the decision of the United States Congress, which voted to increase welfare payments to Americans from $ 600 to $ 2,000 per person. President Donald Trump insisted on this and was able to push the decision after signing a package of support to the US economy for $ 900 billion.
Economists understand that this is fraught with higher inflation, because demand for the dollar today fell and that for the euro increased.
“The economic recovery from the introduction of vaccines in the coming months and the increase in personal spending could cause an increase in inflationary pressures,” John Hardy, head of monetary strategy at Saxo Bank, told the Wall Street Journal.
In Ukraine, the euro cash rate fell 5 kopecks due to the depreciation of the dollar:
- up to 34.65-34.80 UAH / € – for sale;
- up to 34.05-34.25 UAH / € – for purchase.
