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On September 15, the dollar jumped higher: its rate on the interbank market rose 11 kopecks at a time and the price ended between 28.08-28.11 UAH / $. At bank tellers and on mobile apps, prices were also actively rising. In selling to people, the average cash rates added 8 kopecks, and in buying – 5, after which they went to:
- 28.15-28.25 UAH / $ – on sale;
- 27.85-28.0 UAH / $ – for purchase.
The bankers spoke in unison about the growth in demand for foreign exchange from both the population and small businesses. They say that people with power and force took the dollar at the checkout and through mobile applications (Internet banking systems), which could not stop putting pressure on the interbank market.
How the National Bank saved the hryvnia
The cashless market has become more attractive today. The volume of operations jumped from 155 million dollars at a time to 235 million dollars, exporters could not supply the market with such volume of currency and the National Bank had to enter the auction with the sale of the dollar.
The regulator did not appear immediately, which is why it was criticized by many treasurers overnight. This slowness may be due to the unwillingness to take responsibility for temporary workers and the lack of coordination in the work of the old and new leaders of the BNU.
Recall that at the end of August, Sergei Ponomarenko left the position of director of the department of open markets of the National Bank (responsible for the interbank market), and a competition for this position was announced. It was not celebrated immediately, but rather spread. Now this department is headed by a specialist in interim status, former Ponomarenko MP Alexey Lupine. A banker with a lot of experience in this area, but an acting leader. And above him is a former employee of the Ministry of Finance and now Vice President of the NBU, Yuri Gelety, who has no treasury experience of this level, and worked at the National Bank for just over a month.
“I’m sure Lupine doesn’t need additional trouble, especially since he has temporary status. He probably gave a recommendation to sell the dollar, but he asked Geletii for confirmation and he might be dragged down with the decision. He doesn’t have that experience, but here is it. than to spend the gold and foreign exchange reserve, this is not a joke. Gelety could well have called President Kirill Shevchenko and asked him. And he, as we know, spoke in the Constitutional Court in the morning, therefore, all the decisions they could be taken late, “said the vice president of a large bank.
In the end, when the National Bank decided to sell the dollar to back the hryvnia, the regulator threw between 40 and 50 million dollars on the market, all at the same rate: 28.11 UAH / $.
These are the regulator’s first big foreign exchange sales since the quarantine began. As a result, the market received them positively. It would be worse if the NBU did not sell.
“The regulator did the right thing, they went out to sell. It was necessary to set a trend after the prices rose above 28.0 UAH / $, and the National Bank did it. Making it clear that it was not convenient for the market to move above 28.11 UAH / $ “. By the way, the interbank market responded adequately. The situation did not turn into excitement or panic. No. The trade has leveled off, “financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky commented on the situation to Strana.
UAH 28.11 / $ is a benchmark not only for buyers of the US currency, not to make it more expensive. But also for sellers. Today, many exporters withheld export earnings: either they did not sell it at all, or they sold it in low volume. Hoping for a further rise in the price of the “American”. The National Bank, with its sales, did everything possible to convince the foreign exchange sellers that it would not allow the exchange rate to grow strongly. To pressure them to convert their earnings into dollars.
Who inflated the course
The question of the day is who inflated the dollar exchange rate in the interbank market, followed by the spot market. That is, who exactly rushed to buy the coin, which is why it spontaneously started to rise in price.
“The rate of exchange rate movement today was quite active, and the inaction of the NBU in the first half of the day suggested that the hryvnia would be even lower. But we must understand that we are in the process of an active business season, with seasonal purchases of goods., – Andrey Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club analysis department, commented on the general mood of “Strana”.
Treasurers said that on September 15, all major consumers of the dollar became more active. Therefore, the volume of demand turned out to be greater than the previous one:
- Foreigners who bought the dollar to withdraw capital from hryvnia government bonds: Since the beginning of the week, the portfolio of non-residents has decreased by 369.5 million UAH (to 83.9 billion UAH). And also by the withdrawal of dividends from the Ukrainian “subsidiaries” of Western banks.
- Importers of various types of products, including oil traders: replenish their fuel tanks.
- Bank-speculators, who in the morning actively sold their foreign exchange reserves (currency positions), and when the dollar continued to rise in price, they rushed to buy it (replenish positions).
- Population: People dismantled both cash dollars in exchange offices and non-cash dollars through mobile applications and Internet banking systems. When a person exchanges the hryvnia for one dollar between his accounts, the bank must duplicate this operation on the interbank market. Buy non-cash currency for the same amount at non-cash auctions.
What will happen next to the dollar exchange rate?
Tomorrow, September 16, the treasurers admit the continuation of foreign currency purchases in the interbank market. No one has yet promised to predict their volumes. Much will depend on the activity of the population, non-residents and speculative banks.
The opening of trades is expected in the range of 28.08-28.13 UAH / $, with a possible move of 28.15 UAH / $. The role of the National Bank is very important. If you bid in the morning, that is, declare that you are willing to sell the dollar, the prices may not go up. The reversal of the exchange rate is not even excluded. Since the pressure from speculators will decrease. Non-residents can also postpone their currency purchases.
The Ministry of Finance will not make large-scale payments on government bonds. There are only two coupon payments (interest) on the agenda for two days, but in fairly modest amounts:
- today, September 15, the government paid $ 73 million;
- On September 16 a payment of 707 million UAH is due.
The placement of three issues of new government bonds took place today and, as a result, the Cabinet of Ministers was able to attract UAH 6 billion to the state budget. The analysts’ forecasts came true: the officials borrowed most of the funds in dollars and less in hryvnia, which can be seen in the results of the placement of different types of securities:
- 7 months in hryvnia: 2 billion UAH at 7.82% per annum;
- 2 years against the hryvnia: 893.8 million UAH at 10.43% per annum;
- 12 months in dollars – for $ 111.9 million at 3.5% per annum.
In Ukraine, the euro rose 20 kopecks
The euro exchange rate on the world market has fallen slightly after yesterday’s growth: from $ 1.1872 / € to 1.1850 / €. Although in the course of the exchange the prices rose much more, moving between 1.1840-1.1900 / €.
Interest in the European currency spurred a positive report on Germany. Where the index of investor confidence in the economy, instead of the expected decrease to 69.8 points, showed an increase of 71.5 points to 77.4.
The strengthening of the European currency was unstable and did not last long.
“The inability of the euro to hit its highs last Thursday at 1.1917 suggests that investors continue to be wary of the aggressive appreciation of the currency,” said an analyst at Italian bank UniCredit.
In Ukraine, the euro cash rate immediately jumped by 10-20 kopecks:
- up to 33.40-33.60 UAH / € – for sale;
- up to 32.80-33.0 UAH / € – for purchase.
Recall, yesterday it was reported that the dollar rose in price again. Experts have calculated the speed at which the devaluation of the hryvnia will begin.
We also wrote that in the interbank market, the dollar rate approached 28 due to rumors of problems with the IMF.
