Great digital. Geopolitical forecasts for 2021

An analysis of major geopolitical trends from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London IISS.

The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has released forecasts for what global politics will look like in 2021.

The researchers are not drawing very promising prospects.

World power fights

Even though the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 overshadowed other problems, they have gone nowhere. As the SRF writes, the concern stems primarily from rising tensions between world powers. Relations between the United States and China have gone through their worst moments since the 1960s, and Russia and the United States since the 1980s. The situation between China and India is as dangerous as it was in 1975. Four years into the presidency of Donald Trump, For the first time since the end of the Second World War, there is uncertainty of this magnitude in relations between Europe and the United States.

With Joe Biden’s rise to power in the United States, relations between Europe and the United States should improve again, at least its atmosphere. As for the relations between the rest of the world powers, the IISS does not see bright prospects.

America’s problems

The foreign policy adventurism of authoritarian rulers also increased: in Azerbaijan and Turkey against Armenia, in Russia against Ukraine and in Syria, in China in the South China Sea. In the past, American dominance has prevented many conflicts from escalating under more or less mild pressure. But that dominance, the institution predicts, will not return even under Biden, who first needs to “heal his domestic political wounds” before moving on to foreign policy. In addition, the United States has exposed its weaknesses in the fight against the pandemic, which has long-term damage to its reputation. At the same time, the multilateral system, which is based on the UN, has been shaken over the past year.

China Paper

In turn, China “does not follow in the footsteps of the United States”: China is becoming a superpower, but, unlike the United States, China “failed to create strong alliances.” Countries understand the New Silk Road “not so much as a fair partnership offer, but as an attempt to increase influence in many parts of the world.” “Increasingly daring, sometimes aggressive behavior” has cost Beijing much sympathy, from its East Asian neighbors to Europe, Africa and South America. And it has not gone unnoticed that China is using the pandemic to “tighten the screws in its own country,” from Hong Kong to Tibet to Xinjiang, the region where Uighur Muslims live. As SRF points out, fewer and fewer countries view China as a friendly global power.

Digital disassembly

However, the place of the West on the geopolitical map will not be determined by military means. IISS experts predict the “Great Digital Game.” There are no rules yet in this game and the participants are still extremely rude. And the winner has yet to be determined.

One thing is certain: “The confrontation between the world powers is placing a heavy burden on the world.” Solutions to today’s conflicts are as difficult to find as common approaches to tackling climate change or a pandemic. In 2021, geopolitical tensions are likely to intensify, according to the IISS. This is dangerous, because from time to time, the tension can be discharged “with thunder and lightning”.