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Ukraine can survive in 2021 without an IMF loan. The fund would give money, but it is not satisfied with the insufficient fight against corruption and the quality of the budget.
This was stated by the former deputy director of the NBU board, financier, economist Alexander Savchenko in a comment to the publication “GORDON”. “Even if Ukraine does not receive a loan from the IMF, this year may pass. With minor problems for the course in the fourth quarter and with the reduction of some cost elements, usually investments. We will build, repair, buy less. But there are no scenarios. catastrophic, “he said. Savchenko.
He noted that the IMF may propose to switch to a new program. But it will only be ready by the end of 2021. “The situation is not catastrophic, but tense for us. Because the European Union, the World Bank and other creditors will look at us with suspicion in their credit lines,” added the economist.
“The IMF would gladly give us money. Because the main shareholder, the United States, has the political will for that. It has two key complaints. The first is the insufficient fight against corruption, the opaque appointment and removal of the heads of government. “. new anti-corruption bodies. The second point is the insufficient quality of the budget, too optimistic data on income and growth rates. They trust that it is necessary to more realistically indicate income, reduce it, and then rewrite the expense side. All of this leads to a budget review. There are still technical problems, but they don’t play a significant role, “explains Savchenko.
He noted that Ukraine continues to close existing problems at the expense of loans. Its maintenance costs have already reached 12% of GDP. “Ukraine had a good year last year; the drop was 4.5% of GDP. Our drop was not as significant as expected. Although many jobs were destroyed, capital investments fell by 40%, that is We cover almost all our problems due to expensive loans External speculators have not left us and continue to raise money Volumes, of course, fell five times, but this opportunity continues to attract them, because good conditions – 11-12%. In dollars, this is a colossal profitability. It saves us, but, on the other hand, the debt burden weighs on the country. The service – interest payments and debt payments – takes around 12% of GDP “, summarized the economist.
Earlier it became known that the continued cooperation between the IMF and Ukraine is under threat of failure. The main problem: getting the approval of the people’s deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of the legislation on the fight against corruption and judicial reform.
As OBOZREVATEL reported:
