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Armenia wants to recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, but is not ready for it, experts say.
Since the beginning of the resumption of the hot phase of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Western countries, which are members of the OSCE Minsk Group to resolve the conflict, have avoided specific formulations. It was not until October 21 that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg rejected the accusations of involvement in this conflict.
It also emerged this week that the administration of US President Donald Trump will try to contribute to the Karabakh accord. Trump has already scored several victories in peacekeeping as part of the election campaign. Correspondent.net says the details.
Trump fit in before the election
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh began in 1988, when the predominantly Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region announced its withdrawal from the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic.
Azerbaijan in the early 1990s lost control over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven regions during the conflict with the Armenian population of the region with the support of Armenia.
The talks are being held with the assistance of the OSCE Minsk Group, established in 1992. It includes Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Finland and Turkey. The negotiating group is co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States.
In 1994, an armistice agreement was signed that ended active hostilities in the region, but left Karabakh and the surrounding regions of Azerbaijan under Armenian control. Over the years, more than 30,000 people have died.
The clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh have continued since September 27. It is not known exactly what changes have occurred in the line of contact between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan. The fight doesn’t give up, it just intensifies. The parties declare a few thousandths losses to each other.
The humanitarian truces went into effect on October 10 and 18, but both were broken almost immediately. Azerbaijan blames Armenia, Armenia blames Azerbaijan.
On Monday, Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan said they were ready, if such a proposal was received, to come to Moscow for negotiations. However, the parties are not prepared to give up their positions.
For Azerbaijan, these are principles developed with the support of the OSCE Minsk Group, which Aliyev calls a “compromise package.”
It concerns the return of the territories occupied by the Armenian side, the negotiations on the future of Nagorno-Karabakh, the return of refugees and internally displaced persons to their places of origin, including Nagorno-Karabakh, Shusha. All this is written in basic principles, and the Armenian side at different stages agreed to all this, “he said.
As for Armenia, this is the recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.
“The right to self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh, that is, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, has a strategically important role for us … There is only one way to end hostilities: international recognition of Artsakh [армянское название Нагорного Карабаха] on the principle of “separation for the sake of salvation.” There is no other option, “says Pashinyan.
However, experts doubt that Yerevan itself is willing to accept the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh independence.
“I don’t think Armenia will take that step, but even if Yerevan does, it is unlikely to get support in Europe,” quotes RBC Maximilian Hess, an expert on the Central Asia program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
According to him, only Kosovo can support such an initiative, but even that is not guaranteed.
“Without coordination with Russia, Armenia will definitely not solve this problem, and in Russia itself, apparently, no one will accept it,” said Alexander Gushchin, associate professor at the Russian State Humanitarian University.
In his opinion, Yerevan will not accept any recognition, because strategically this is an unnecessary step.
“Yes, this is a serious issue within Armenian society, but from a political point of view, such a decision will do nothing and will only complicate Armenia’s position in the international arena, and will also become a serious blow to prospects. to organize a new peace process, “said the expert.
For the last ten days, there have been no statements from the EU mentioning the right of people to self-determination, neighboring Iran and Russia and all other countries have shown that this decision is not on their agenda, says Azerbaijani political scientist Farhad Mammadov.
Such recognition will have two consequences, continues the expert: the loss of the meaning of the negotiations and the war with Azerbaijan.
The French company Total has projects in Azerbaijan, and perhaps even this fact alone is a sufficient obstacle to the recognition of the region by Paris, the analyst said.
Italy also has trade ties with Azerbaijan and Spain is unlikely to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh, given the Catalan factor, Hess argues.
Finally, with regard to Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly expressed her negative attitude towards changing borders in Europe.
European politicians do not express clear formulations on the Karabakh crisis due to relations with Turkey, which supports Azerbaijan in this conflict, said journalist Viktor Agayev, who lives in Germany.
Even on the issue of gas fields in the disputed region near Cyprus, which Turkey is seriously attacking, the EU will not cancel the sanctions, despite persuasions from the Greeks and Cypriots, and gives Ankara time “to think. in new relationships with its western neighbors. “
This systemic indecision of Germany, which is often perceived as the indecision of the EU as a whole, in any dispute with Turkey is explained by a whole tangle of problems.
The economic component is of great importance. The commercial turnover between Germany and Turkey is about 40,000 million euros. Turkey is the largest importer of German products. It is also important that 7.4 thousand German companies work in this country, and the Germans are leaders in direct investment in Turkey.
Germany is also the main arms supplier. However, as the conservative German newspaper Welt noted, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “has a more sophisticated weapon: refugees. It is this that enables Erdogan to rule Europe, and she is powerless against it.”
This week it became known that Washington decided to get involved in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. On Friday, October 23, the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, will take turns meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
The day before, Politico magazine, citing White House sources, reported that, unlike the conversations in Moscow at 9-10, Pompeo intends to communicate with his colleagues separately. First, you will receive Bayramov, after which you will speak with Mnatsakanyan.
From the first days of the conflict, the United States adopted a position more in line with the interests of the Armenian side.
Pompeo accused Turkey, a NATO ally, of fomenting the Karabakh conflict.
“Now we have the Turks who intervened and provided resources to Azerbaijan, increasing the risk and increasing their firepower in the ongoing historic battle,” he said.
The US diplomat pointed out that the solution to this conflict must be achieved through peaceful negotiations and discussions, and not through an armed conflict.
“And, of course, not with the participation of third countries that will come to contribute their firepower, where the situation has already turned into a powder keg,” he told Ankara.
Sargsyan also said that, in his opinion, a NATO country is participating in the conflict.
“Many analysts are already saying that this is no longer a war between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan, there is a third party here who provides political, diplomatic and military support to Azerbaijan and who brought Islamist terrorists to the region. Unfortunately, this country is a member of NATO. Turkey, “said the Armenian leader.
On October 21, after speaking with Sargsyan, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Armenia and Azerbaijan have been “valued partners” of the military alliance for more than 25 years, that they are “not participating in this conflict.” .
“I reminded the president that NATO is not involved in this conflict,” Stoltenberg stressed, noting that the cessation of hostilities would be important for both NATO and international security.
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