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As a result of the 2020 political crisis, Belarus has become a military district of Russia. “Because of this, the threat of an attack by Russia through Belarus against Ukraine and the Baltic countries becomes real, the Service report of Estonian Foreign Intelligence on external threats to the country, he says.
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service is concerned about the real threat of a Russian attack against Ukraine and the Baltic countries via Belarus. This is stated in the report of the special service on external threats to Estonia in 2021, excerpts of which were quoted by Radio Svoboda on February 26.
The document says that as a result of the 2020 political crisis, Belarus has become a “military district of Russia.” This is why the threat of a Russian attack through Belarus against Ukraine and the Baltic countries seems quite real.
“Given its geographical location and territorial coverage, Belarus is a necessary buffer zone for Russia and performs its tasks in the western strategic direction. During a crisis or war, Russia can use Belarus as a bridgehead and deploy its troops there, blocking the NATO access the Suwalki corridor, which provides movement in the airspace of neighboring countries and the establishment of ground communications with the Kaliningrad region of Russia “, – says the report.
The next Russian-Belarusian “West” military exercises will be held this year, and the government of Alexander Lukashenko will increasingly depend on Russian support, including in the military sphere.
“If Russia sees that the protesters are close to victory, we will not be able to rule out Russian military intervention, as the Republic of Belarus is extremely important to Russia in strategic terms. So far, we do not see that Russia wants to publicize its activities in any way. Now, the people of the Republic of Belarus are not in any way opposed to Russia and the Kremlin’s goal, of course, is to support this situation. However, the longer the Kremlin keeps in power Lukashenko, more understanding that Russia is behind him“, – said the head of the Estonian Department of Foreign Intelligence Mick maran.
In September last year the “Slavic Brotherhood 2020” tactical exercises were carried out, in which Russian and Belarusian military participated. In total, up to 1,500 military personnel and more than 150 aviation, combat and special equipment units participated.
Mass protests have been going on across Belarus since August 9. The protesters believe that the results of the presidential elections were falsified. According to official data, Lukashenka won with 80.1% of the voters. Second place with 10.1% of the vote was held by Belarusian opposition Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. At the same time, alternative exit polls showed the opposite picture: Tikhanovskaya’s confident victory.
The Belarusian security forces violently dispersed the demonstrations using explosions, rubber bullets and water cannons. During the protests, hundreds of protesters were injured and wounded. According to the Viasna human rights center, more than 25,000 people have been detained in the country since August, and received a total of 83,000 days in detention. The authorities announced four participants killed in the rally, the opposition – eight.
In August last year, Lukashenko and Putin called twice and discussed the events in Belarus. During the conversation, they confirmed the agreement that in case of aggravating the situation in terms of external threats, the parties will react together in accordance with the provisions of the Collective Security Treaty.
Lukashenko held a secret inauguration ceremony, for the first time in Belarusian history it was not announced or broadcast on television. Several states, including the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Denmark, Ukraine and the Czech Republic, did not recognize Lukashenko’s inauguration.
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