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The next US presidential election will take place on November 3. Democrat Joe Biden leads the ratings with a clear advantage. However, incumbent President Donald Trump has a chance to gain leadership in key states and win, repeating the outcome of the 2016 election. What are the predictions of the candidates to win, as well as data from opinion polls by state, on the RBC-Ukraine material?
Pre-election candidate qualifications
In the last week before the vote, Joe Biden outscored Donald Trump by 7.6%. The RCP platform provides averaged national survey data:
- Joe Biden – 51.2%
- Donald Trump – 43.6%
This dynamic was observed throughout the electoral campaign: the Democratic candidate led the qualifications with an advantage of 2 to 10 points on average.
Similar rankings have been published on FiveThirtyEight, an analytical resource that tracks government polls:
- Joe Biden – 53.3%
- Donald Trump – 45.4%
Furthermore, FiveThirtyEight simulated the election result, according to which Joe Biden will become the leader of the presidential race with a probability of 89 out of 100.
The gap between candidates is more than 7% (RBC-Ukraine collage)
YouGov conducted a survey among more than 70,000 respondents. According to their results, in the presidential elections, Joe Biden can receive 53.1% of the votes and Donald Trump, 44.6%. Electoral college votes are likely to be distributed as follows:
- Joe Biden – 356
- Donald Trump – 182
It should be noted that due to the peculiarities of the American electoral system, the result of the election is not determined by a simple majority of voters, but by the result of the vote of the delegates of each state: the Electoral College.
Each state is represented by a different number of voters, depending on the population. They must vote directly for the candidate supported by the majority of voters in their state. To win the elections it is necessary to gather at least 270 electoral votes out of a total of 538.
How Tram and Biden Support Each Other in the States
Candidates lead by the widest margin in states that traditionally vote for the same parties in all elections.
For Republican Trump, these are Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Oklahoma, Kentucky, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia, Wyoming. The gap between opponents is 25-30%.
Democrat Joe Biden is the undisputed leader in his home state of Delaware, as well as California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New York, Vermont, Washington.
However, in several states, the candidates do not have an obvious advantage, so they are considered key. Based on the ratings, in the 2020 election, such states include Florida, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia.
According to 270towin’s forecast, Joe Biden could get the votes of 279 delegates and Donald Trump, 125 votes. 134 voters were supposedly undecided about the decision.
State Candidate Support (screenshot 270towin.com)
Who can win key statuses
In Texas, Ohio, Iowa, which in the last election supported Republicans ahead of 8-10%, this year the situation has changed. The gap with the Democrats narrowed to 1% (according to YouGov):
- Texas – 38 voters – (Trump – 49.5%, Biden – 48.2%)
- Ohio – 18 voters – (Trump 49.5%, Biden 48.6%)
- Iowa – 6 voters – (Trump – 49.5%, Biden – 48.5%)
Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia are also “wavering” states in the 2020 presidential elections. After the 2016 elections, electoral sympathies in them shifted in favor of the Democrats:
- Florida – 29 voters – (Biden – 51%, Trump – 47.4%)
- North Carolina – 15 voters – (Biden – 50%, Trump – 48%)
- Arizona – 11 voters – (Biden 50.9%, Trump 46%)
- Georgia – 16 voters – (Biden – 50.4%, Trump – 47.5%)
Additionally, in the states that voted for Donald Trump in 2016, Joe Biden is currently at the helm.
- Wisconsin – 10 voters – (Biden – 52.1%, Trump – 45.6%)
- Michigan – 16 voters – (Biden 52.8%, Trump 44.8%)
- Pennsylvania – 20 voters – (Biden – 52.7%, Trump – 45.5%).
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