[ad_1]
Saakashvili tries to return to Georgian politics through parliamentary elections
The Maidan has yet to subside after controversial elections in Belarus, as pre-election passions simmer in another former Soviet republic: Georgia.
Former President Mikheil Saakashvili’s announcement of his return to his homeland on the eve of the parliamentary elections on October 31 threw fuel into the battle between his United National Movement party and the current government in the person of the leader of the ruling Georgian Dream party, the former prime minister and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.
At the same time, he drew the attention of the Ukrainians to the events in the trans-Caucasian country.
As “Strana” wrote, it really depends on your outcome: whether Saakashvili will “carry out reforms” in Ukraine or return to his homeland. The last option is possible if the ruling party loses the elections.
Georgia is moving to a parliamentary form of government, and the prime minister will henceforth be the main person in the country.
According to various polls, Ivanishvili’s party can get around a third of the votes, while Saakashvili’s political strength is slightly less. In addition, the electoral barrier in Georgia has been lowered, and at least 5-7 parties can enter parliament, even those that bet on cooperation with Russia.
To win, a match must win 1% and a bloc must win as many matches as there are.
The Georgian opposition field is scattered and varied, and in the event of victory it will be difficult to reach an agreement on a candidate for prime minister.
“Strana” was trying to find out what the prospects are for Saakashvili’s party and the opposition in general and what positions are in power.
Opposition fight
Parliamentary elections in Georgia will be held according to a mixed system: 120 deputies will be elected according to the proportional system and 30, according to the majority system.
And the opposition cannot agree on the majority of candidates for the majority vote. Saakashvili’s party managed to fight with his comrades in arms.
According to forecasts, the “United National Movement”, which is represented by the “Force in Unity” bloc and the “European Georgia” union, will go to the elections in different columns.
Divisions within the opposition, which could hamper their chances of victory, have intensified after the National Movement announced that it would nominate candidates from all regions of the country, which was opposed by other parties advocating a united front.
At the same time, the appointment of UNM as Prime Minister Saakashvili further aggravated the contradictions, as many opponents like Mikho even less than the current government.
There was no official split, but experts doubt that the opposition will be able to create a coalition in the future and remove Ivanishvili.
“We propose two options. First: we all agree that the National Movement will nominate its candidates in all the big cities and will support opposition candidates in other regions. Second option: we will support the National Movement in the cities, but not to nominate his candidates in four electoral districts, where “European Georgia” will present candidates, – said the leader of “European Georgia” Giga Bokeria.
Saakashvili’s party disagrees.
“Where the National Movement has good positions, we will nominate our candidates,” said one of the party’s leaders, Khatia Dekanoidze, one of the “Georgian reformers” in Ukraine, who first led the National Police under Poroshenko.
And after the recent feud between Saakashvili and his longtime close partner and godfather Giorgi Vashadze, the confrontation within the Georgian opposition has moved to a new level. Two years ago, Vashadze was nominated for the presidency as a member of Saakashvili’s party, and now he broke away and led the opposition New Georgia party.
Mikho has already accused Vashadze of “playing the game” of Ivanishvili.
Furthermore, Saakashvili’s party has nominated its candidate in the Isani district of Tbilisi, where Vashadze is represented by the united opposition.
“The decision of our political team, our party, was really conditioned by a single goal: to defeat the candidate Bidzina Ivanishvili in Isani, because unfortunately, after Giorgi Vashadze left our association, the united opposition, a reality completely developed. different in the majority constituency of Isani. Therefore, today I conclude the conversation about discord in the opposition. My only goal, for which I will move forward, for which I will fight for the rights, prosperity and security of each of our citizens, will be only the victory and defeat of the candidate of the “Georgian Dream”, – said Dekanodize.
The opposition comrades did not accept such a move.
“This act has no moral or commercial justification,” said Levan Tarkhnishvili, a member of the European Democrats.
One of the leaders of “European Georgia”, Gigi Ugulava, agrees with him.
“National movement”: is it a force for unity or is it imposing itself? “Ugulava wrote on the social network.
Earlier, Ugulava stated that Saakashvili no longer deserves leadership and presents a problem for him.
“This is not the same Misha Saakashvili who joined and gave people hope in 2002,” Ugulava said.
As the expert from the Georgian Institute of Politics Korneli Kakachia told us, there is no strong opposition party in Georgia, which can enter into a real dispute with the ruling Georgian Dream.
And in the context of the conflict between the opposition, the ruling party has an increasing chance of winning. Financial and administrative resources also play in favor of the Georgian dream.
Saakashvili top shaker
According to all the polls, no party has a chance to win more than 50% and win the parliamentary elections. And more than 60% of Georgians are sure that the country is not developing and they want change.
“Sociological polls in Georgia, which, by the way, are conducted by American companies (the Madisson Foundation, the National Democratic Institute and others), show that the ruling Georgian Dream party still dominates in Georgia. It receives 30 to 50% of the votes, and rather in total, it is she who will become the winner of the parliamentary elections. Saakashvili’s United National Movement, according to these polls, shows 12-25%, it is likely to become the second and main party of the opposition, “political analyst Ruslan Bortnik told Strana.
Most likely, he thinks, is the “Georgian dream” that the coalition will form, although the situation with the mono-majority may be repeated.
“The current model of power will remain, although we should expect a change from the Georgian prime minister, because the anti-lives of the current leadership are high. By the way, Saakashvili himself has high anti-lives, which do not allow him to win, for example, in the next Presidential campaign. So far, the conditions for Saakashvili’s return not to Georgia, his party cannot be the winner in these parliamentary elections, and he has little chance of participating in the coalition. ”Saakashvili’s rhetoric of recent days, his The declaration on the return to Georgia is an attempt to revive his party and participate as leader the agitator is already in the parliamentary electoral campaign, to regain public and informative attention.
Another factor is the polarized attitude towards Miho.
On the one hand, there is great mistrust of Saakashvili in Georgia, and many of the terms of his rule are viewed extremely negatively. Furthermore, in recent years, the authorities have thrown tons of compromising evidence about Miho through the media, and before the previous 2016 parliamentary elections, they even filmed a furious TV series about him.
On the other hand, the denial about the former president since his resignation has already largely lessened. And in the context of the social and economic problems not resolved by the new government, the number of its supporters increased somewhat.
“The economic situation is getting worse, corruption and nepotism have returned. The criminal situation is also bad, every day you hear about murders and other serious crimes. The state is ruled by clans. For example, there is the Kakha Kaladze clan. , the mayor of Tbilisi, the clan of Ucha Mamatsashvili, Ivanishvili’s cousin. All major projects, construction, tenders, only in his hands, “political expert Georgy Tsasadze told us.
Waiting for calls to the Maidan
At the same time, Ivanishvili’s supporters believe that he managed to restore stability in Georgia and will vote for him to prevent Saakashvili from returning to power.
“If the National Movement wanted to be a European-type party, then no matter what the merits of the leader are, all leaders, after a certain period, leave politics. They do not enter the same river twice. But Saakashvili is different since from this point of view, he tries to regain a second life in Georgian politics, “believes Kakachia.
His party’s chances, experts say, may also be hampered by his physical absence from Georgia.
If the opposition is defeated in the expert environment, they do not rule out Miho’s attempts to summon a Maidan, as he already tried after losing his godfather in the presidential elections.
Furthermore, the West may be able to help you in this.
“The events in Belarus are a lesson for Georgia. Almost a year before the elections, the West asked to vote” freely and transparently “, Georgian political analyst Arno Khidirbegishvili tells us.
The Western press is already writing that if Georgia does not hold free and fair elections, skeptics in many European capitals will take this as confirmation that Georgia is not ready to be part of the West. And this means a closed path to NATO.
In Tbilisi, these and similar signals were perceived by many as a direct cue for Georgians in the United States to vote for Saakashvili’s party (it would be beneficial for the Americans to create another problem for Moscow near Russia’s borders). And the words about “the threat of violence and unrest” as a warning that Washington may support post-election protests, if they start.
This “Maidan” scenario is perhaps the only one in which Saakashvili can return to the country, trying to topple Ivanishvili’s party in the wave of protests.
