[ad_1]
Economists called for a lockdown in Ukraine due to the spread of the coronavirus and predicted that budget losses would not be as significant as in the spring.
This was reported by analysts from the Kiev School of Economics during the presentation of the program “What will happen to the economy through COVID-19? Presentation of macro forecasts”. They point out that The economic losses are negligible compared to the benefits of saving health and life. the citizens.
The closure in December will cost Ukraine 5.4% of GDP for the month. Assistance to the population and businesses due to the restrictions will reach 23 billion UAH.
Loss forecast for the end of December:
-
The fall in GDP in 2020 will be 5.1% year-on-year,
-
1.9 pp – drop in external demand,
-
2.0 pp – reduction in employment,
-
0.9 pp – closure of companies due to strict quarantine in spring,
-
0.3 pp – other factors.
“In the event that the quarantine is repeated, close to spring, in December the economy will react with less magnitude than in the second quarter. The forecast of a fall in GDP is 5.4% per month in this scenario,” they said analysts.
According to the Center for Macroeconomic Modeling, the extension of the weekend quarantine until the end of the year will generate a loss of 0.14 percentage points. GDP.
“With the extension of the weekend quarantine, the incidence increases, while Ukraine loses both on the epidemiological and economic front, as some companies are forced not to work on Saturdays and Sundays. If total quarantine is introduced for end of the year, it will be less painful than in spring, and will have a negligible impact on the economy “, – said the head of the Center for Macroeconomic Modeling of KSE Yuri Sholomitsky.
Government spending, which also included support for retirees, during the spring quarantine amounted to 33.4 billion UAH. In the event that quarantine measures are strengthened, support from businesses and individuals will require additional funding.
In case of further quarantine, the support package can duplicate the spring support package:
– cancellation for one month of ERU for sole property, payments to individual property with children
– subsidies for housing and communal services in December-January (the debt is transferred to the government);
– cancellation of property tax for one month;
– Expansion of the 5-7-9 program to support the business itself.
According to analysts, there are several ways to obtain funds to support the economy: external debt; redirect funds allocated for capital expenditures from the budget: suspension of construction of infrastructure (including roads); the use of funds not yet spent from the Fund to Combat COVID-19.
At the same time, the head of the Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Committee of Verkhovna Rada, the people’s deputy of the Servant of the People faction, Danil Getmantsev, in an interview with LB, announced his loss calculations for the closure.
“We believe that the lockdown for three weeks will add a maximum of 0.5-0.7% to the already existing drop in GDP. This is a minus of the minus we already have. But not more than a percentage in any case. This, of course, is bad. It hurt. However, if we talk about people’s lives, this is no longer a question of money. This is a matter of global perspective, to which we give priority. I think we have no moral right to discuss the alternative of life money, even a life of a Ukrainian and 0.7% of GDP, “he said.
Getmantsev also spoke about the government’s decision to introduce the weekend quarantine.
“The problem with such decisions is that no one knows the correct decisions. The government made that decision. For example, Turkey also made a decision about a weekend quarantine. Right or wrong, well, who knows? Practice will show. I am in favor of stricter measures that are predictable. If we are talking about breaking the chain of infections, then definitely two or three weeks of lockdown will be more effective than two days with rest for workers. But the government is the only body that can and does he must make a decision in such a situation, “he added.
As OBOZREVATEL reported:
