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Today the US currency has risen in price. Photo: “Country”
The new week began with a rise in the dollar in the interbank market. Its rate has surpassed another psychological high, and on September 14, non-cash trading closed at 27.98-28.0 UAH / $.
The cash market passed this mark last week. So now I kept moving forward. The exchangers’ average prices for sale increased by 7 kopecks to between 28.05 and 28.17 UAH / $. The maximum was the same as on Friday – 28.25 UAH / $.
When buying, the price range immediately rose by 15 kopecks and was fixed at 27.80-27.95 UAH / $. Banks are trying more actively to buy foreign currency from the population, although they notice a small offer for the delivery of the dollar. Rather, people try to buy currency.
Trading in the interbank market revived today: the volume of transactions grew from Friday’s low of $ 93 million to $ 155 million, during trading they reached UAH 28.01-28.03 / $, but at night they fell a little.
“Despite the fact that the hryvnia is trading at its lowest, there was no enthusiasm in the market,” said Maksim Parkhomenko, an analyst at Alpari.
The treasurers distinguished the state banks from the total mass of dollar buyers. Someone canceled their purchases for the needs of customers, and someone did not rule out the option of buying currency at the National Bank (although few believed in this). The National Bank itself did not go out on the interbank market today with the purchase of the dollar.
“In general, the foreign exchange market is prepared for the devaluation of the hryvnia. Smooth and quite calm,” said financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky in an interview with Strana.
Market participants still not promising big currency sales
“The farmers have not yet started selling foreign exchange for new crops. A dollar for corn and seeds is on the way. But it is already known that there will not be much. Since the corn harvest was not the best. Agricultural companies save every dollar. for a rainy day. ” he told the treasurer of one of the banks.
The key topic of the day for the financial market was the news of the approval of the state budget project for 2021. No one saw the complete document and only fragmentary information from the Ministry of Finance was evaluated. However, it was even enough for the experts to be covered by a negative ripple.
“The first impression is negative. It is not clear how the budget will be filled and what fiscal and budgetary reforms will be adopted for it. There is a complete fog about privatization and creating conditions for it. There was hope for the land market, but what will be done for its development – At the same time, everyone was set by the budget deficit figure of 270 billion UAH – it’s just space. After all, everyone understands that it will be supplemented by items that have not been funded since this year, “Nevmerzhitsky said.
Rumors about the possible resignation of the leadership of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy and the general instability of the government add to the negative of these assessments.
The treasurers were quite skeptical about the rate of 29.1 UAH / $, which was established when calculating the state budget for 2021. After all, neither this year nor last year the government’s exchange rate forecasts were met ( the hryvnia rate turned out to be higher). Which often served as an excuse for not meeting the budget.
For the near future, financiers still predict a smooth rise in the price of the dollar. On September 15, the interbank market is expected to open within the limits of UAH 27.98-28.03 / $, with a higher movement of UAH 28.05 / $.
“If we can pass this level and exceed 28.15 in the market, the devaluation expectations will start to grow. This will force many to hold on to their dollars, and this will make the rate go up even more,” says Maxim Parkhomenko.
But few believe that tomorrow that mark will be crossed.
The euro rises in price due to the Fed
The euro rate rose on the world market: on Friday $ 1.1830 / € to $ 1.1872 / €. During the day, exchanges moved prices between $ 1.1832-1.1888 / €.
If last week investors were afraid of the new decisions of the European Central Bank, and due to the uncertainty they were selling euros and buying dollars. Then, in this case, history repeats itself exactly the opposite. Now the market is looking forward to the monetary decisions of the US Federal Reserve, so it sells the US currency and acquires the European one.
On September 15 and 16, the FRS meeting is held, in which adjustments to the regulator’s monetary policy should be considered. Given your initial statements about the 2% inflation target. The plans of the US central bank, as usual, will be announced by its head Jerome Powell.
In Ukraine, the average euro cash rate increased by 10-15 kopecks and resulted in:
• for sale – for UAH 33.20-33.40 / €;
• on purchase – for UAH 32.75-32.90 / €.
Earlier we wrote that, according to Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko, the hryvnia exchange rate set by the government in the proposed state budget of Ukraine for 2021 is 29.1 UAH per US dollar.
It was also reported that in the preliminary draft of the state budget, the Cabinet of Ministers set the maximum deficit at 270.35 billion UAH.
